时机 (Shí
jī) – The Right Moment for Action!
When Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan and relocated his
Republic of China (ROC) government there in 1949, he intended it as a temporary
base from which to recapture mainland China. Taiwan was to him part of China.
Mao Zedong likewise planned to expel Chiang from what he saw as the last piece of China yet to be liberated. Unfortunately, his attempt was thwarted by the difficult conditions of the Taiwan Strait and China’s subsequent involvement in the Korean War.
In the years that followed, Taiwan prospered while China stagnated. There was no way China could do anything about Taiwan, even during Deng Xiaoping’s transformative years. Taiwanese people enjoyed a higher quality of life and greater international respect. Even their military was far more advanced than China’s. Reunification was an alien concept to them.
Nonetheless, both sides were happy to live under the consensus reached in 1992, which carried the understanding that China and Taiwan are one people and despite their political differences, they could work together economically and culturally. This understanding held even during the presidency of Chen Shui-bian of the pro-independence Democratic Progressive Party (DPP).
Things began to change after Xi Jinping came to power. China quickly became the world’s second largest economy, lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty. By the time COVID-19 broke out, China was already being seen as near-peer competitor to the US in both scientific and military capability.
COVID-19 and the Hong Kong protests in 2020 did grave damage to China’s global image. However, among many Chinese worldwide, feelings shifted differently. Seeing how China managed the pandemic and realizing the Hong Kong unrest as externally influenced, a stronger sense of cultural pride emerged.
Now many Chinese share a common view: politically, the divide may be deep, but Taiwan is still historically and culturally part of a greater China. There is potential for mutual benefit under a broader framework.
However, instead of working with China for the promotion of mutual good, Tsai Ing-wen doubled down on distancing Taiwan from China. And now Lai Ching-te is going to all out to accelerate it. This may be the last straw.
Reunification – by force if necessary – is now a non-negotiable mission for China’s leadership.
Militarily, China has the capability to bring Taiwan under its control within weeks. Yet it has hesitated, not wanting a war that would result in heavy loss of Chinese life and severe economic disruption on both sides of the Strait. Also, Donald Trump is too wild a card to call.
But the situation is different today. This might just be the Goldilocks moment.
First, the US is stuck deep in the soft sands of the Middle East. Its support for Ukraine and Israel has strained its resources. Its ability to replenish military stockpiles is constrained, including by shortages of rare earth elements, supply of which is hugely monopolized by China. Peter Hegseth does not know how to fight a war. His generals and soldiers are quite demoralized, knowing that they were fighting for wrong causes. (His attitude and amateurism are indeed shocking to them.) Hardly any of its aircraft carrier battle groups are really ready for war; many are under repair for that matter. At the same time, its economy under Auntie Bessent is also showing signs of great stress.
But to me, the more concerning threat is from Japan.
Under Sanae Takaichi, Japan is reviving its ugly militarism. It is actively shaping a narrative in Southeast Asian that China is aggressive and must be contained. Some leaders in the region may be susceptible to this messaging. (Japan committed atrocities, but they were invariably on the local Chinese population. Natives did not quite suffer in Japanese hands.) It is now trying to arm the Philippines and deploying missiles on islands that face China. It even says that it has sufficient materials to make 5,000 nuclear bombs.
The way to stop this madness is to remove the core source of this tension, namely, Taiwan. It must be brought back to China’s fold NOW. Once this is achieved, Japan’s threat will be neutralized. And the US will be a distant country to worry about.
However, once this window is passed, the prospect of bringing back Taiwan will become more and more remote.
Historical Context
The Cultural Revolution initiated by Mao, lasted roughly from 1966 until his death in 1976. It was a period of intense upheaval. Daily life was dominated by ideological pressure and political campaigns. Public struggle sessions were common, and people lived in fear of being labelled “counter-revolutionary”. Many were pressured to denounce friends, colleagues and even family members.
Students formed Red Guards, targeting intellectuals and officials while destroying temples, books, artworks (“Four Olds” campaign). Cities, especially Beijing and Shanghai, saw waves of factional violence; normal governance essentially broke down.
Schools and universities were shut for years. A whole generation lost formal education (“lost generation”). Intellectual work was devalued; manual labour was glorified. Urban youth were later sent to the countryside in the “Down to the Countryside Movement”. Millions forced to live and work as peasants in often harsh rural conditions. Xi was a case in point.
Families were torn apart and trust in society eroded deeply.
During this period, Taiwan became an important education destination for many overseas Chinese, especially from Southeast Asia. Many brought back Taiwanese brides.
However, the replacement of the Taiwan-based Republic of China (ROC) by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) as the sole legitimate government of China in the United Nations on 25 October 1971 was largely welcomed by overseas Chinese. To them, Mainland China – their ancestral home where few could visit at that time – was still the sole legitimate entity to represent China, not Taiwan. Nonetheless, in their heart, Taiwan was a part of their concept of China.
After Mao’s death, Deng Xiaoping shifted away from ideological campaigns and moved toward economic development, pragmatism, and modernization. China gradually allowed market mechanisms alongside state planning, opened to foreign trade and investment, created Special Economic Zones (SEZs) like Shenzhen and encouraged private farming and small businesses.
Then came the 1989 TianAn-men incident.
A word about this incident: The internal pressures within the USSR was already intensifying and its control over its satellite states had begun to unravel. The Communist world appeared to yearn for democracy.
Hu Yaobang died in April that year. He was seen by many students as a symbol of pollical reform and openness. Mourning gatherings in Tiananmen Square evolved into broader calls for less corruption, more transparency and some degree of political reform.
Reform-minded figures like Zhao Ziyang favoured negotiation, whereas hardliners pushed for restoring order by force. Ultimately, paramount leader Deng Xiaoping backed a crackdown. Martial law was declared in May 1989. Hundreds might have died in the incident.
With the help of western press, the incident shaped strong negative perceptions of China’s political system.
The question is: Was the country ready for liberal democracy then? And if the reformists had succeeded, would China be become what it is today.
I am more inclined to say that without Deng’s wisdom, China’s might have broken up like Soviet Union in no time.
Fortunately, China continued economic reforms regardless.
From 1978 to around 2010, China experienced one of the fastest sustained growth periods in modern history, with annual GDP growth of around 9-10%. Export surged, urbanization accelerated and China joined the WTO in 2001.
China overtook the US in GDP (PPP terms) in 2014. Western analysts have often reminded us that PPP GDP reflects domestic purchasing power, not international financial strength, but in truth, nominal GDP counts only if a country has BOP or USD-debt concerns, which are not issues for China. (In nominal terms, US is about $32-22 trillion and China, about $20-21 trillion and the gap does not appear closing even though it is obvious for all to see that the illusional state of the US economy. As long as the world is beholden to the USD obligations, USD will continue to undermine the truth of its true value.)
With China back on economic track, semi-official representatives from both China and Taiwan met in Hong Kong and reached this tacit understanding called 1992 Consensus. It was a political formulation to facilitate cross-strait dialogue. Deng was still the paramount leader of China then. (The General Secretary of the Communist Party of China was Jiang Zemin.) Taiwan was headed by Lee Teng-hui.
Lee Teng-hui was succeeded by Democratic Progressive Party’s Chen Shui-bian in 2000, who ended decades of rule by the Kuomintang (KMT). His ascension led to more tensions with Beijing, as Chen was associated with a stronger Taiwan identity stance. He was a separatist through and through.
Chen Shui-bian left office under a cloud and was later tried and convicted on corruption-related charges. He was succeeded by Kuomintang (KMT)’s Ma Ying-jeou who took office in 2008. Ma advocated closer economic ties with mainland China and reduced tensions during his tenure.
Unfortunately, many Taiwanese felt overdependent on China economically and concerns grew about political influence from Beijing. This created fertile ground for DPP. The “Sunflower Student Movement” was a turning point; students occupied Taiwan’s legislature to oppose a trade pact with China. It reflected broader anxiety over transparency and sovereignty and energized a younger, politically active generation. The movement significantly weakened the KMT’s credibility and boosted DPP momentum.
Identity shift in Taiwan began; a growing share of people, especially among younger voters, began identifying as “Taiwanese” rather than “Chinese”.
Taiwan was ripe to swing against KMT and Tsai Ing-wen Tsai Ing-wen won the 2016 presidential election. However, she was not quite popular, but luck was on her side. Protests broke out in Hong Kong in 2020. Many in Taiwan saw “one country, two systems” as no longer credible. The protests – instigated by people like Jimmy Lai and Joshua Wong with the keep hands of CIA and MI5 – reinforced fears about Beijing’s intentions, even though the issue that had prompted the Hong Kong protest was a legacy one and had had little to do with mainland China. Tsai, despite her mediocre performance, was re-elected for a second term.
But everybody knows that her claim that she had a PhD from the London School of Economics was bogus. Lai Ching-te was not a particularly strong candidate in 2024. However, the inability for KMT and TPP to field a common candidate landed him the job. (TPP’s Ko Wei-je must now be regretting his misplaced ambition and is now starring a jail time of 17 years over seemingly minor misuse of political donation issues. Lai is hell-bent to take Taiwan independent, though not in public pronouncements.
China has always been demonized by the western and pro-west media as aggressive and intimidating. The situations in Tibet and Xinjiang have been distorted and the public, who do not go beyond superficial reports, largely bought these media’s “concentration camps” narratives. The Chinese did little to correct perceptions. Most of their ambassadors were not articulate enough to explain to local audiences.
The behaviours of many local Chinese in China’s tourist spots also irked many – indiscriminate spitting, tendency to rush out to enter shuttle buses at the gates even after doing a queue, smoking in non-smoking areas. The uncouth behaviours of some Chinese tourists and their lack of understanding of general etiquette expectations continue to make Chinese look very low-end in the eyes of the world.
Certainly few Taiwanese want to identity themselves as "Chinese" under these circumstances!
Fifty years of Japanese colonial rule in Taiwan did convince local Taiwanese of the "superiority" of Japan’s sense of benevolence and social order. Locally born Taiwanese naturally harbour more affinity toward Japan than China. I remember my wife and I had to look after my son’s PhD partner when she was visiting Kuala Lumpur. She is Taiwanese and we asked if she had any boyfriend and her reply was that her father wanted her to marry a Japanese, hence the narrowness of her choice!
Perceptions of many locally born Taiwanese towards KMT was also marred by the KMT’s White Terror reign – roughly from 1949 to 1987, when Taiwan was under martial law. An estimated 140,000 people were imprisoned for political reasons and several thousand were executed. The martial law was lifted in 1987 under Chiang Ching-kuo; however, the period left deep psychological and political scars, and a strong discomfort towards KMT and mainland China, especially by the younger generation.
However, with China’s visa-free and unrestrictive visits to tourists regardless of where they come from, and the state’s constant exhortations, we should see less of this ugliness appearing.
Trump’s true colour has long been known to the world; however, it is his unstinting support of Benjamin Netanyahu in Gaza and his role in the war in Iran, which is essentially his brand of Zionist Christianity, that have shattered the last iota of hope that the world has on US. There is only one nation that can check the US today, and it is China. Nevertheless, because of years of bad press and self-inflictions, China still has miles and miles of difficult roads to overcome foreign prejudices. However, given the wisdom of its present leadership, it should prevail.
KMT’s Cheng Li-wen has emerged as a forceful China-friendly Taiwanese leader. I understand sentiments in Taiwan are fast changing. People are more receptive to live with China as a people. Notwithstanding, China should not wait. This is the time to act!
Once the fait accompli is achieved, all obstacles will just melt away, and a new equilibrium will appear.
End
