Donald Trump’s
five-day deadline threat against Iran’s energy infrastructure lapsed yesterday.
Instead of striking, he postponed it by ten days—to April 6. He claims he was
happy to give Iran another extension because talks were ongoing and productive.
Do you believe him? Iran denies any such talks took place.
What is
credible is this: Pakistan and possibly Egypt are now acting as intermediaries,
conveying demands between the two sides. We must take all claims with a grain
of salt.
Trump realizes – though refuses to admit – that the war he has started with Benjamin Netanyahu has been a disaster, especially given the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Domestically, he faces strong economic and political pressure to end the conflict. Internationally, oil prices are spiking, allies are crying out for fuel, and the economies of Gulf states are coming to a standstill.
Nonetheless,
strikes and military activities continue. Netanyahu is extending the war into
Lebanon.
The postponement is likely tactical and temporary. Two amphibious assault ships - Tripoli* and Bataan – have yet to arrive. *Tripoli* is Japan-based; *Bataan* is Atlantic-based. Both are being redirected toward the Gulf. The former is expected in early April, the latter slightly later. Each carries F-35B short-takeoff stealth fighters, attack and transport helicopters, and – more lethally – between 1,500 and 2,200 Marines, along with amphibious assault vehicles, light armored vehicles, artillery, and landing craft. They are capable of launching beach landings, raids, and ground troop deployments.
Except for
Poland (if I am not mistaken), none of its allies have responded to the call to
send ships to help open the Strait of Hormuz.
Amphibious ships are extremely vulnerable in the Gulf, especially in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran specializes in asymmetric coastal warfare. The northern side of the strait – Iran’s coastline – is one of the most dangerous environments in the world for large naval vessels.
The Strait is
only about 33 km wide at its narrowest, with shipping lanes even narrower and
highly predictable. Iran controls the entire northern coastline and key islands
such as Qeshm and Abu Musa. Any ship entering the strait is already inside
Iran’s weapons envelope. Iran has designed a system specifically for this
scenario: naval mines, coastal and ballistic anti-ship missiles, drones, fast
attack boats, and mini-submarines – all intended to overwhelm, confuse, and
exhaust U.S. defences.
Amphibious ships like Tripoli and Bataan are especially vulnerable: large, slow, packed with troops, aircraft, and fuel. A successful strike would inflict massive casualties and cause a significant political shock.
The 82nd
Airborne Division – widely described as the U.S. military’s rapid-response unit
– has troops reportedly aboard Tripoli. While highly capable, the division is
not designed to fight a full-scale war alone. It specializes in parachute
assault and rapid seizure of key targets. Only about 2,200 troops of its total
15,000–20,000 are believed to be en route. The unit has limited armour and
relies on speed, surprise, and air support – capabilities Iran already
understands well. The U.S. would likely keep these ships outside the strait and
move them in only after suppressing Iranian defences.
Thus, the Trump
paradox: the ships are deployed to signal strength, yet using them aggressively
inside Hormuz is extraordinarily risky.
This pause is Trump’s own cocktail: a tactical pause, political calculation, and limited diplomacy. His behaviour is becoming a pattern – escalating rhetorically with ultimatums, moving forces into position, and then delaying at the last moment. This fits a broader style often associated with him: creating a crisis, personalizing the conflict, employing brinkmanship, and then stepping back to claim a deal.
It is unlikely
that Iran, under its current leadership, will concede under pressure. Unlike
Venezuela, its clerical leadership is driven by religious mission. The pause
will only strengthen its position.
Trump’s shamelessness knows no bounds. His preoccupation with legacy has produced a series of episodes that range from the absurd to the self-aggrandizing:
Rather than saying Trump embodies xié qì, I would now put it this way: what we are witnessing is not the presence of zhèng qì restraining conflict, but it is the manifestation of xié qì in Trump - where threats, self-centredness, and brinkmanship replace moral clarity and strategic consistency.
With Trump, you can never tell what rabbit he will produce next. One thing is certain: he will not be kindly remembered by most future historians.
End
Not satisfied with claiming the Gulf of Mexico as the Gulf of America, he now half-jokingly says the Strait of Hormuz should be renamed the Strait of Trump.
ReplyDeleteThis guy who only brags and taunts is unhinged; he shows neither remorse for the 165 little Iranian schoolgirls killed by his bombs nor for his unprovoked attacks on a sovereign state with a long history but under the weight of his unwarranted sanctions.
He doesn't realize he is being pulled by his nose by Israel, the same state which had conspired with England and France in 1956 to seize the Suez Canal from Nasser only to be stopped by Roosevelt because it was illegal to do so. In that campaign, Israel attacked the east coast of the Canal and England with France walked in disguised as peacemakers.
That Suez crisis ended British imperialism and its empire. This year and as the bigger version of the anglospheric imperialist excesses of the British, America did the same to Panama and Mexico which were respectively armtwisted to expel Chinese investments on the Panama Canal and raise 50% tariffs on Chinese imports.
Netanyahu must have concluded Israel has only one chance to use Trump as his tool to debase Iran which stands in the way of Israel becoming the second hegemon in the Middle East because after Trump leaves the stage, there won't be another more pliant character than him. Having destroyed the Gaza and defanged Syria with an uprising, Israel now renews its destruction of revisionist forces in Lebanon, an appetite to conquer whetted by an army of faceless infiltrators that has made anti-Israel defenses everywhere a swiss cheese.
Meanwhile, it might well be that the two US aircraft carriers Gerald R Ford and Abraham Lincoln have been hit else why suddenly move the George HW Bush carrier to the Gulf.
Whatever it is, an airborne and amphibious invasion of Iran's Kharg refinery island to secure its main economic lifeline so as to acquire blackmail leverage to pressure Tehran to accede to the US' ultimatum demands is a risky proposition even if the landing forces succeed in their objective.
2/2
ReplyDeleteThe IRGC may execute asymmetric attacks on Saudi Arabia whose Salman has also egged the US to dismantle the Tehran regime, despite an earlier agreement of concomity brokered by China.
If those attacks land on the refineries, the price of oil may rise to 150/barrel, and Asia and Europe may tailspin into recession; South Korea alone has only a week's reserves and Marcos, jr has declared an emergency. Only Australia will wet its lips thinking how much coal and LNG it will extract by payment as pounds of flesh from desperate customers.
Chemical engineers will say It's neither easy to reconstruct a bombed refinery nor get insurance coverage necessary for bulk trade and transport. Pell-mell attacks will make the Gulf States that protect the US petrodollar toxic for years.
Trump must realize his Strait of Trump is narrow, and its reopening by force requires permanent ground troops on both sides of the coast and permanent naval presence in the mined waters, requirements which are already resisted by some 80 of his Republicans. Indeed, all must await with bated breath what will happen next after his 10-day extension expires. Adjourn for Mexican tacos with Thai green chili sauce?
As a note, the Americans are so much into 'systems' that they forget how their McNamara the quintessential systems guy was bested by the guerilla warfare of the Vietcong. Well-fed and fully-equipped war professionals in boots beaten by farmers in sandals. History is about to be repeated.
The latest is the Houthis have joined to support Iran. They too can elevate drones and fire missiles across the mouth of the Strait. Meanwhile Trump and Salman miss one surprising factor. Although Iraq and Iran had fought each other, there are no small numbers of militarily-trained Shia elements in Iraq who are predisposed towards the Tehran regime.
If the regime is pushed to a corner, people power will rise in anger and intifida's and fatwa's will proliferate with calls for yankees-go-home. The 1 Billion Muslims may be so incensed by the US and Israel that some of those naturalized will test again the resources of home security in the US and Europe.