I am in Melbourne and was anxiously waiting for the outcome of the psychopath’s 48-hour ultimatum on Iran.
At 10pm yesterday (7pm Kuala Lumpur time), news came through that Donald Trump had backed down from his ultimatum, claiming that Iran had agreed to negotiate. However, Iran stated that no such agreement existed.
The contradiction is entirely understandable. You can never trust Trump’s words, and therefore the true reason behind his decision remains unclear.
I would strongly suggest that it is the U.S.’s ultimate strategic realisation, combined with domestic political pressure, that has caused the TACO to “chicken out” again—albeit for five days, as I understand it.
Trump issued the ultimatum on March 21, demanding that Iran open the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on its power plants. Yet, two hours before the deadline, he de-escalated, claiming that the U.S. had “very good and productive conversations” with Iran. In his dreams? (Just a day earlier, Scott Bessent said the U.S. would escalate in order to de-escalate. You really do not know what Auntie Bessent meant!)
What Likely Really Happened
The threat to Gulf states’ desalination plants is also real and would have severe consequences for countries that host U.S. bases.
U.S. strategic calculation: Despite his public claims, Trump appears to have been seeking an “exit” from what he calls an “excursion” into Iran. The war has not produced the quick capitulation he expected. The Revolutionary Guard remains in power, the new Supreme Leader (Mojtaba Khamenei) is still in place, and no uprising has materialised.
Domestic political pressure: The oil price spike from the Strait closure has been fuelling inflation and hurting American consumers, with gasoline prices approaching $4 per gallon. This poses a serious political threat to Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.
Military logistics: This pause may allow the U.S. military to resupply ammunition after heavy use of expensive precision-guided missiles in the early weeks of the conflict.
The conflicting narratives reveal several important strategic realities:
·
Iran is not collapsing: Despite significant strikes, Iran’s
leadership structure remains intact, and its military capabilities remain
dangerous.
It also dispels the mistaken belief that Iranians would come out en masse to celebrate the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. On the contrary, it has likely deepened hostility toward the U.S. and Israel.
Energy markets are the key leverage point: Iran’s ability to disrupt global oil flows gives it bargaining power that military strikes alone cannot eliminate.
The TACO phenomenon is real: Trump has shifted from demanding “unconditional surrender” to suggesting that the U.S. will not be responsible for permanently policing the Strait. (Notably, most allies are not sending warships to the area.)
The five-day postponement does not mean the crisis is over. The coming days will reveal whether this is a genuine diplomatic opening or merely a temporary pause before further escalation. We need to see:
• Whether talks begin between U.S. and
Iranian representatives
• Oil price movements and shipping activity in the Strait
• Any resumption of U.S. or Israeli strikes after the five-day period
• Reports of U.S. military repositioning or resupply
We have often seen that Iran’s retaliatory threats are not always carried out decisively. Its actions tend to be reactive rather than proactive. Nonetheless, it has endured.
Based on recent assessments from U.S. intelligence and independent analysts, Iran is highly unlikely to capitulate anytime soon. Despite significant military losses and the killing of its long-time Supreme Leader, it has adopted a strategy of attrition designed to outlast the U.S. and Israel.
A Resilient, Hardline Government
The transition of power to Mojtaba Khamenei has been relatively orderly and has not led to the expected paralysis.
Shift to “Asymmetric” Warfare
Instead, it has shifted to asymmetric tactics, for which it has prepared for years. This includes the use of low-cost drones and missiles, as well as leveraging control over critical chokepoints. With U.S. interception capabilities in Gulf bases degraded, Iran can increasingly deploy more advanced missiles against Israel.
Iran’s goal is not to win a conventional war, but to make the conflict so costly that the U.S. and Israel are forced to seek a ceasefire on Iran’s terms.
By effectively closing the Strait of Hormuz—through which about 20% of the world’s oil passes—Iran has driven up global oil prices, fuelling inflation and increasing political pressure on the Trump administration.
By deploying low-cost weapons such as the Shahed-136 drone (around $2,000), Iran forces the U.S. and Israel to expend extremely expensive interceptors, such as Patriot missiles (around $4 million each), creating a significant economic burden.
By utilising its vast mountainous terrain (1.6 million sq km) and a network of underground “missile cities,” Iran presents a dilemma: air power can inflict damage but cannot permanently eliminate a dispersed, hidden, and resilient force.
Are They Negotiating?
·
Iran’s conditions: President Masoud Pezeshkian has stated that Iran is open
to ending the war—but only if its conditions are met. These include recognition
of Iran’s rights, payment of war reparations, and firm international guarantees
against future aggression. The U.S. has already rejected the idea of
reparations, making a quick breakthrough unlikely.
In summary, while Iran is weakened and under strain, its leadership remains stable, its core retaliatory capabilities intact, and its strategy focused on fighting a long war of attrition rather than surrendering quickly.
The Fibre Optic Factor
While the threat is real, the situation is not quite so dire. The Strait is indeed a major digital artery, with several key undersea cable systems—such as AAE-1, FALCON, Gulf Bridge International, and Tata TGN-Gulf—connecting Asia, the Middle East, and Europe.
However, the greatest danger may not be deliberate sabotage, but the chaos of war itself.
·
Collateral damage: The most likely cause of disruption is
accidental damage from naval activity, mines, or ships dragging anchors across
the seabed.
·
Iran’s constraints: While Iran has the capability to damage
cables, doing so would also harm its own connectivity, which is already heavily
restricted.
The real danger lies in the inability to repair damaged cables during active conflict.
·
Repair ships cannot operate safely in a war zone, meaning
outages could last weeks or months.
·
This creates a global digital bottleneck, especially with
both the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea under disruption.
·
India is particularly vulnerable, as a significant portion
of its westbound internet traffic passes through these routes, affecting
finance, banking systems like SWIFT, and cloud services.
The U.S. stock market has reportedly climbed following these developments. Does this mean Trump or his insiders are profiting?
There is currently no public evidence that Trump or his associates have directly profited from this specific market movement. However, the sequence of events has drawn scrutiny and accusations of potential market manipulation.
A Pattern
There are two areas of concern: traditional stock trading and “war betting” markets.
While there is no conclusive proof of his wrongdoing, the market did create opportunities for insiders like Trump, and by some accounts he did profit in suspicious ways.
(However, a rumour that Barron Trump bought $30 million in oil before the war was investigated and found to be baseless.)
I hate to think that a president can stoop so low to make money out of situations like this. However, one can never be sure what this chaotic psychopath might do.
Regardless of the speculations, this psychopath is putting the entire global economy at risk through his whims and fancies.
Let’s tune in again in
five days’ time.
End
One evil option is deception as it attacked Iran when their guard is down. October bombings last year surprice. Feb this year decapitation of head of state. This time uss Tripoli n full naval strength, Iran off guard then only alsurprise atta k. This is 3rd time
ReplyDeleteMuch of Trump's 15-point peace plan consists of the same demands including disarmaments made on Iran BEFORE the US attacked it premeditatively so it is unlikely Iran will accept it in toto now that one and all can see he cannot be trusted in good faith.
ReplyDeleteIn fact, the plan was fashioned by Obama in a deal with Iran that Trump had torn up in his first term. A ginormous rupture of integrity, boomeranged by Trump's omnishambles pantomine.
On Iran's side, it is understood it wants war reparations, lifting of sanctions and sovereign guarantee it won't be attacked again.
The demands by both sides are thus mutually exclusive, tangential and divergent. Knowing that, the US threatens bombing of Iran's power plants and possibly a parachute-amphibious invasion of Iran's Kharg refinery island but that is just adding fuel to fire since in response, Iran can bomb the region's infrastructures and mine the Hormuz Strait which thus eliminates any possibility of returning to status quo ante.
A cursory look of the map also shows there are 19 coastal oil refineries in that region. If they are consequently blown up, dire be the world's economies not just because oil and gas are fundamental fuels for many industries and trade transport but also because the region produces helium and urea needed for semiconductor and fertilizer fabrications.
The loose parabellum that he is, Trump only had Plan A - destroy Iran's military response capabilities and trigger regime change by uprising. Now that both objectives remain not fulfilled and the oil and gas shortages are reverberating across the globe right into his country's own gas stations, he wants to dial-down the conflict quickly but how can Iran let him get away with the injustice and destruction he had inflicted on the Iranian people, especially when there is no guarantee his US together with the connivance of Israel won't next bomb their country to perdition?
Furthermore, he on the one hand said the Iranian leadership has been wiped out; on the other hand, he also said talks have been constructively conducted; so, with whom were those talks conducted? Lawrence of Arabia, Cyrus the Great, Stormy Daniels, perhaps?
Moreover, the US-Israel decapitation of Iranian leadership has not taken into account Iran's military structure has been judiciously spread out across Iran's defensive terrain with local autonomy having horizontal counterattack capabilities. They might think they have decapitated the leadership but one layer down, the commanders are still active and can act independently now that the IRGC runs both state and a military weaponized with Russia's drones and targeting surveillance. That Iran has also fired a ballistic missile all the way to Diego Garcia carries significant import.
2/2
ReplyDeleteWithout any Plan B of domestic uprising and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, the US-Israel bloodthirsty bellicosity has only stiffened Iranian resolve to remain in a hot war than a cold peace. For the Iranians, the situation is existential. For the US, it's to make money at the oil and weapons markets, tighten the dependencies of the Gulf States and draw leverage against Europe which has folded its arms akimbo when Trump in some desperation asked for help.
Iran has allowed friendly shippers to pass through the Straits; that includes China, India, Pakistan and Malaysia but excludes Japan and South Korea. China has 10 months oil reserves, not four. India made a boo-boo when Modi prostrated himself before Israeli leaders just before the attacks on Iran commenced. Pakistan may be the post-office for any talk but it also realizes if things go south, it may be toxified for trying to help the US. Takaichi bribed Trump with 100 cherry trees.
Will Trump extend the 5 days ceasefire by a month or will he sign off an invasion of Iran or will he execute the invasion of Cuba or the extra-territorial sicario-nization of Mexico's cartels? Going by his own morality which he said he only goes by, he can do anything he wishes but someone his age still hankering for adulation using destructive powers cannot leave behind any legacy that is good for people, his or others.
So, when won't the US ever get tired of its tiresome martial namings like Desert Storm, Midnight Hammer and Epic Fury? For a man who professes he wants peace and less bloodshed, they should be more appropriate as names for race-course thoroughbreds. In fact, some may still remember one local tv ad many moons ago (Guinness Stout?) - "Kum Mah will win" was the closing statement. In this year of the Horse, that's Golden Horse (although profit-taking has dampened the price of gold lately).
China is right; this is a war that shouldn't have happened. Much ado about nothing, as old Shakespeare (Marlowe?) would have concluded.
For a country trying to look inwards, the US can't even get itself right when it still outwardly goes around blowing people up. Such poor form for one with Harvard, Stanford, MIT, Caltech - and Wharton, pedigrees.