CHINA’S MILITARY READINESS BY 2030

What it means to the world…

As a keen watcher of geopolitics, albeit an amateurish one, I am fully convinced that by 2030 China’s pre-eminence in the world will be acknowledged beyond doubt. The US will retreat to its cocoon. Russia will stand tall in Europe, which has to reconcile itself to being largely a “no body” in global scene. The Global South countries will join BRICS en masse to stay afloat.

         First and foremost, Taiwan has finally become a part of China – not as a SAR, but a province of China. It has few obstacles to keep scaling new heights – socially, economically, and technologically. Of course, it has also to be the top dog militarily lest the West try to bring it down again, just like what they did to the Qing dynasty in the 19^th century.

         Trump 2.0 will wreck the US economy to such an extent that even if there is a good new president taking office in 2029, the US will have already lost its momentum; it will not be able to surpass China for a long time even if they resolve to do so. The principal reason is that it does not have the Chinese talent pool anymore.

         Be that as it may, the US will remain its biggest threat for the next couple of years. Fortunately, it has largely cemented its base, even though there are still a few aspects, especially in chip-making foundries, that they must master.

         As I have said from the very outset, to deter the Americans, China must be powerful than America militarily. Let me try to take stock of what they have now.

Nuclear Deterrents
China successfully tested its first atomic bomb on October 16, 1964, launched its first nuclear missile on October 27, 1966, and detonated its first hydrogen bomb on June 17, 1967.

        In terms of nuclear warheads, the US and Russia may have more in numbers, but this is not an undisputed advantage, for no country would dare to do a first strike, except North Korea maybe. The world will be largely destroyed if nuclear bombs are used by the US, Russia or China. And in terms of delivery and interception systems, China’s is now the most formidable.

        China’s Rocket Force controls its arsenal of land-based ballistic, hypersonic, cruise missiles – both nuclear and conventional. China is said to have the largest land-based missile arsenal in the world – 400 ground-launched cruise missiles, 900 conventional short-range ballistic missiles, 1,300 conventional medium-range ballistic missiles, 500 conventional intermediate-range ballistic missiles, as well as 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles.

         Many of these are extremely accurate, which would allow them to destroy targets even without nuclear warheads. America says that China has a stockpile of approximately 600 nuclear warheads. I believe the number is growing by the day.

         It introduced DF (Dongfeng 东风)-1, DF-2 and DF-3 in the 1960s. They were respectively short-range, medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. In the 1970s, they had DF-4 which is a limited-range ICBM. In the 1980s, it was their DF-5 full-range ICBM.

         A series of newer DFs followed, most notably is its DF-21 which is a two-stage, solid-fuel MRBM. The missile carries a single 500 KT nuclear warhead, with up to 2,500 km range. It served as the basis for the submarine-launched ballistic missile used on its Xia [夏] class Type 092 nuclear-powered submarines. Saudi Arabia is believed to have bought a DF-21 in 2007.

        The latest variant, the DF-21D, has a maximum range exceeding 1,450 kilometres. It is the world's first anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), capable of targeting a moving carrier strike group from long-range, land-based mobile launchers.

        In addition to the development of a sea-based nuclear force, China has also developed tactical nuclear weapons. Its Air Force are certainly capable of delivering nuclear bombs.

        It was during the 1999 when the US bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade that China saw the need to develop precision missiles and accelerate plans to expand its conventional missile forces.

        The DF-26C is an IRBM with a range of at least 5,000 km, far enough to reach U.S. naval bases in Guam. Few details are known, but it is believed to be solid-fuelled and road-mobile, allowing it to be stored in underground bunkers and fired at short notice, hence difficult to counter. Possible warheads include conventional, nuclear or even manoeuvrable anti-ship and hypersonic glide warheads.

        The DF-27 is a deadly intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) warhead developed in 2021. It has a range of 5,000 km to 8,000 km.

        The DF-31 is China's newest road-mobile, solid-fuel ICBM which has a range of 8,000+ km, and can carry a single 1,000 KT warhead, or up to three 20-150 KT MIRV warheads. An improved version, the DF-31A, has range of 11,000+ km, far enough to reach Los Angeles from Beijing. It made its first official public appearance in the 2017 PLA Day Parade.

        The DF-41, capable of being armed with ten or twelve MIRV warheads, is China's newest addition to its nuclear arsenal. With an estimated range between 12,000-15,000 km, it is believed to surpass the range of the US's LGM-30 Minuteman ICBM to become the world's longest-range missile.

        On 9 January 2014, China’s DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) made its first flight test. It is believed to have a top speed of Mach 10, or 12,360 km/h. In July 2021, China is believed to have tested globe-circling hypersonic missile including the unprecedented launch of a separate 2nd missile from the ultra-high-speed vehicle. Neither the United States nor Russia has demonstrated the same ability, which requires launching a missile from a parent vehicle traveling five times the speed of sound.

        On 25 September 2024, China performed its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test over the Pacific Ocean. The specific ICBM that was launched was not stated.

Conventional Strike Ranges as of 2022

 

Nuclear Ballistic Missile Strike Ranges as of 2022

Air Power
J[歼]-5, China’s first fighter jet made its debut in 1956. It was modelled along the Soviet MiG-17. It flew J-20 in 2019 and unveiled J-35 last year, both stealth fighters. (However, its J-10 and J-16 are still in service.) The US is the only country that has two types of stealth fighters – F-22 and F-35. Now that two new types of aircraft – believed to be the forerunners of the 6^th generation fighters – have been spotted in the skies of Chengdu and Shenyang, the US is feverishly talking about developing their F-47 – to humour Donald Trump (him being the 47^th president of the US. He says it is a beautiful number!) (Last month, SCMP also reported that Chinese scientists had successfully simulated conditions for the development of the world's first jet fuel-powered engine for Mach 16 (20,000 k,/h) flight, marking a potential game-changer in hypersonic propulsion that could redefine the limits of air and space travel.)

        By 2030, China’s 6^th generation aircraft will terrify the US.

 

Naval Power
China's shipbuilding capacity is now 230 times larger than the United States. (Some sources say it is more than 300 times!) Its shipyards accounting for more than 50% of global merchant tonnage production. Several of their shipyards can also produce naval vessels at will. Trump is now trying to address this shipbuilding gap, but it is going to be a lost cause.

        The U.S. Navy's newest battleship is its USS Zumwalt – a 15,000-tonne destroyer launched in 2013. Its newest aircraft carrier is USS Gerald R. Ford-class commissioned in 2017. A second ship of the class, to be called John F Kennedy, is scheduled to enter service in 2025. But do you see it doing sea trials?

        China’s 3^rd aircraft carrier Fujian is currently undergoing intensive and extensive sea trials. The 4^th aircraft carrier, believed to be nuclear-powered, is also being constructed.

        It has already launched its 40,000 tonne 076 amphibious assault ship Sichuan which can also double as a small aircraft carrier containing unmanned aerial vehicles, as it is equipped with a launching system featuring an electromagnetic catapult like that of the newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian.

        However, it is its Type 055 destroyer that most other navies fear most. Type 055 is a class of stealth guided-missile destroyer that is capable of multi-missions – the combination of sensors and weapons that can provide a main role in area air defence and anti-submarine capabilities.

        The first batch of 8 vessels was designed between 2014 to 2018, and all were in service by the end of 2022. A second batch of 8 is being constructed at Dalian and Jiangnan. It is principally powered by four 28 MW (38,000 hp) turbines. The ship contains navigation radars, various communication and intelligence systems, electronic warfare support measures, electronic countermeasures, electro-optical sensors, laser-warning systems, optronic jammers, and datalink systems. A deployment port exists for variable depths and towed array sonar. The large bulbous bow likely also contains a bow sonar.

        It has 112 vertical launching system cells – 64 cells forward and 48 cells aft – to fire surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles, land-attack cruise missiles and anti-submarine torpedoes, besides the guns and close-in weapon systems. There is hangar space for two helicopters.

        China has a battle force of approximately 370 surface ships and submarines versus the US’s 300 or so. However, in terms of tonnage, China still lags behind the US (2 million versus 4.5 million tonnes). China will surely overtake the US in terms of naval tonnage by 2030.

        China has a fleet of more than 60 nuclear and conventionally powered boats. Its most powerful nuclear submarine is the Type 094 (Jin [晉]-class) ballistic missile submarine, capable of carrying 12 JL-2 missiles with a range of 7,200 km. It is China's latest and largest strategic submarine and is nuclear-powered.

        These submarines are powered by nuclear reactors, allowing for extended periods at sea and silent operation. The Type 094A is an improved variant of the Type 094, with upgrades in stealth, hydrodynamics, and overall performance. 

        China is also developing the Type 096 Tang [唐]-classsubmarine, claimed to be able to carry up to 24 JL-3 ballistic missiles each. It should be operational in this decade.

        Just days ago, it has also unveiled a powerful deep-sea cable cutter capable of severing the world’s most fortified underwater communication or power lines. The tool can cut cables at depths of up to 4,000 metres – twice the maximum operational range of existing subsea communication infrastructure – and has been designed specifically for integration with China’s advanced crewed and uncrewed submersibles.

Electronic Warfare, Surveillance and Air Defence
Chinese researchers have also made significant breakthrough in electronic warfare technology, asserting that adversaries will find themselves exposed on the battlefield with no place to conceal. A team based in Beijing has successfully devised a method for continuous, broad bandwidth, real-time monitoring and analysis of the electromagnetic spectrum, which effectively unveils enemy forces during conflicts.

        Last July, the South China Morning Post shed light on a December 2023 incident between a US EA-18 Growler carrier-based EW (electronic warfare) aircraft and China’s Type 055 cruiser Nanchang in the contested South China Sea. Apparently, the US aircraft was “jammed” by the Nanchang cruiser.

        It is believed that the US and its allies have also faced similar situations in the South China Sea in recent months.

        China has reportedly developed a new radar technology that can detect and track stealth aircraft, including the F-22 Raptor, by utilizing signals from its BeiDou navigation satellite system, offering a cost-effective and stealthy alternative to traditional radar systems. China has also reportedly deployed a new Large Phased Array Radar (LPAR) in Yunnan Province, enhancing its ballistic missile early warning capabilities and suggest China is building a counter-stealth radar system on Triton Island in the South China Sea. 

        In January, a PLA video showed a “strategic, active phased-array radar” that could detect missile threats within “a few thousand kilometres” – something at the forefront of the country’s anti-missile defence system. It is likely to be a system that will be used to detect hypersonic missiles.

Global Positioning System
All the above will not have been possible without a good own system. China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS; 北斗卫星导航系统 Běidǒu wèi-xīng dǎo-háng xì-tǒng)) is in its 3^rd generation now. It provides full global coverage for timing and navigation, along with the US’s GPS, Russia's GLONASS and the Europe’s Galileo. As of December 2023, 44 satellites are operational: 7 in geostationary orbits (GEO), 10 in 55° inclined geosynchronous orbits (IGSO) and 27 in Medium Earth orbits (MEO). It has reached millimetre-level accuracy.

        The original idea of a Chinese satellite navigation system was conceived in the 1980s when GPS gave the US complete advantage on the battlefield and how satellite navigation systems can be used to conduct "space warfare". In 1993, China realised the risk of denied access to GPS during the Yinhe incident [银河号事件].

        The first satellite, BeiDou-1A, was launched on 30 October 2000. In 2008 BeiDou began to offer an open service with an accuracy of 10 metres.

        (China actually joined Europe’s Galileo project in 2004 but pulled out in 2007.)

        It is now acknowledged that GPS’s capabilities are now substantially inferior to those of China’s BeiDou. BeiDou will surely set new standards in 2030!

Ground Force
So far, I have not touched much on China’s Ground Force, which is its principal fighting force. It is formidable by any standard. The need for maintaining such a huge ground force is borne out of the historical lessons that China has learned over the millennia, not out of fear of the new Xiongnu’s naval and air attacks because of Taiwan or the Philippines.

        PLA’s 1,000,000-strong ground force is a heavily mechanized force, consisting of infantry and mechanized infantry divisions, tank divisions or brigades, and a number of artillery, antichemical, air defence, engineer, signal, reconnaissance, electronic countermeasure, and logistics troops. Much robotics and AI is now infused into its operational capabilities.

China’s military command structure

On top of the chain of command is the Central Military Commission (CMC), the chairman for which is none other than Xi Jinping. The PLA is organized into five theatre commands (Eastern, Southern, Western, Northern and Central), four services (Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force) and four arms (Aerospace Force, Cyberspace Force, Information Support Force, and Joint Logistics Support Force), with a dual command structure that includes political organs at each level. 

        Xi’s relentless anti-corruption drive must have cleaned up much of China’s military ecosystem. Its professionalism and patriotism are now believed to be second to none.

A Reality Check for America
All these would not have been conceivable ten years ago. Thanks to Ukraine sad state of affairs in the mid-2010s, China was able to acquire much of the country’s already very sophisticated military technology, particularly Moto Sich’s fighter engines and naval turbines. With China’s engineering resources, leap-frogging the West is just a matter of course.  

        China has already achieved a level of military preparedness that the US can never hope to win if a non-nuclear war were to break out in the western Pacific. Its “web kill” technology will ensure that much of America’s military assets will get sunk or shot down soon after they leave the 2^nd island chain. 

        Wang Yi used to say this to his Western counterparts – Let’s meet each other half-way. This form of courtesy is rooted in oriental “win-win” politeness, which the West do not buy. Theirs has always been “zero-sum” in expectations. This courtesy is useless, for leaders like Trump understand only this: Might is everything. And China has all that now.

        When US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said over Fox News on March 5 that the US is “prepared” to go to war with China, Wang Yi simply responded with Bring it on, man!

        The leaders of Japan, South Korea and the Philippines need to study history and follow real news.

What Does All This Mean to the World in 2030 and beyond?
An easy answer: Devoid of the American hegemony, the world will certainly feel safer and more equal!

        As Jeffrey Sachs has repeated advised the Western world, one, you cannot trust the American leaders and two, China is NOT (and will never be) a threat to them. 

        Sit back and relax!

End

 

Hi Zelenskyy, whither is Ukraine heading?

            The majority of Ukranians, like Russians, are East Slavic. They are cousins. How did Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, become the president of Ukraine in the first place?

Zelenskyy, a former entertainer (he had a degree in law, though), has been President of Ukraine since 2019. Positioning himself as an anti-establishment and anti-corruption figure in a post-Soviet, politically directionless world, he easily beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko with a landslide win of some 73% of the vote in the second round. Zelenskyy's term was supposed to end in May 2024, but the ongoing war has put paid to that timeline.

He was Joe Biden’s blue-eyed boy and hailed by the West as their bulwark against Russia’s grand design ambition on Europe. During the last US presidential election, he was foolish enough to openly endorse Biden and hence courted the wrath of Donald Trump. With Trump re-entering the White House, his days would surely be numbered.

True enough, the West’s hero was summoned to the White House on 28 February, supposedly to conclude a “deal” with Trump on Ukraine’s mineral resources, Zelenskyy was instead humiliated by Trump and his Vice President JD Vance in front of the whole world. Anyone who has any 志气 zhì qì (a melting pot of resolve, backbone and pride) would have stormed out of the room. He hanged on and was later ignominiously ushered out.

I am no fan of Zelenskyy, but I felt sad for him.

I have said enough of Trump’s obnoxiousness and do not want to again waste time bashing him here. But I could not help recalling the above scene, which happened in September 2020. I am sure this is one of the images that has remained in many people’s minds – President Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia made to behave like a schoolboy in front of a fearsome headmaster!

Today Trump 2.0 is behaviourally not different from Trump 1.0. Maybe worse.

Although the “deal” has yet to be concluded, it will certainly mean much of Ukraine’s mineral rights will go to the US – as a repayment for the billions the US has spent on Ukraine in its proxy war against Russia.

I thought the US was doing out of altruism? The Russians are winning in the battlefields. Putin may allow Trump to broker an end to the war – so that he can look great to the American eyes – but he is not going to give an inch to Zelenskyy. And as it is, European leaders like France’s Emmanuel Macron and UK’s Keir Starmer are still goading Zelenskyy to fight on. But without the support of the US, Ukraine will surely lose the war.

What is left after the war for Ukraine? Zelenskyy has to flee the country, if he has not been liquidated by then. Putin will never allow Ukraine to join NATO, which was precisely the ambition of Zelenskyy that triggered Russia to invade Ukraine in the first place. Ukraine will be a country where much has been destroyed. Few able-bodied are left to rebuild the country. Without a Father Christmas, it will remain in a very pathetic state for many years to come.

People in the former client states of Soviet Union like those in the Baltics, Poland, and those in the Balkans do have good reasons to hate Russia, but the Ukrainians? I beg your pardon! They were as guilty as the Russians!

Ukrainians and Russians were equal partners in the Soviet Union era! (That was also the reason Russia was happy to place the Crimea under Ukraine, even though the Black Sea is so strategic to the former.)

Now the US is deserting Zelenskyy, Europe can never fill the void. The European leaders can shout until their throats run dry. But they will never dare to start a war with Russia themselves.

It is time for Zelenskyy to admit complete defeat and quit. He has to disappear, though; notwithstanding, it is still not too late for him to save Ukraine to some degree.

Apparently, someone significant in Ukraine has already called Putin. Hopefully, this man is prestigious for him to be accepted by the Ukrainians and wise enough to bring Ukranians to believe that they have to do everything to reconcile with a powerful neighbour. After all, they are estranged cousins; all they need is a good 鲁仲连 Lǔ Zhòng-lián[1], and that can be Wang Yi of China!

I am not at all sure whether Ukraine is obliged to repay all the monies that the US and its supporters in Europe and elsewhere have spent on their war against Russia. But why should pay?

I doubt the claims about Ukraine’s abundance in rare earths are for real. But the Ukrainians are as smart as the Russians. They can work together to rebuild the country. And China and the rest of the rational world can always chip in. The type of democracy that is being practised by the Americans and Europeans are only good for window-dressing.

 

End

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[1] A historical character in Chinese history’s Warring States period 戰國 (5th cent-221 BCE), said to be a highly effective in bringing warring parties to come to terms. 

China’s Technological Advances – The Ukrainian Factor

 

In aerospace technology
It was reported just a couple of days ago that China had achieved a huge leap in hypersonic propulsion technology. It simulated the world’s first oblique detonation engine using standard aviation kerosene in Beijing’s JF-12 to an altitude of 40km and speeds up to Mach 16 (about 20,000 km/h), making hypersonic travel and military dominance a reality. This means that in not too distant a future, its missiles could evade all defences!

Currently, it already has its own WS-15 engine to power J-20 fighter – a fifth-generation stealth combat plane that is said to be no inferior to America’s F-35 series. And not too long ago, two new unusual flying objects were seen, one over the sky of Chengdu and the other, the sky of Shenyang. They might not be the prototypes, but certainly they were telling us that China was already in a very advanced stage of ushering in their 6^th generation fighters.

These feats were totally inconceivable seven or eight years ago. How has China’s aerospace come so far in such a short time?

I believe it is the Ukrainian factor.

Before its dissolution in 1991, Soviet Union’s nuclear arsenal was kept in four of its 15 republics – Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Ukraine held about one third (about 1,700 warheads) of the inventory. Ukrainians also had significant knowledge of its design and production. However, these weapons were not under their control.

Upon declaring independence, Ukraine pledged to rid itself of nuclear weapons and in December 1994 the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, United Kingdom, and the United States signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances in connection with its joining of the treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

But Ukraine could not get their acts together; the country was constantly plagued by political turmoil. The US was certainly the culprit. And due to mismanagement, Ukraine’s economy has been going down the drain since independence. It had to sell its family silvers.

Motor Sich came into the scene.

The firm had inherited a large part of the former Soviet Union's aero engine manufacturing capabilities. It produced turbofan, turboprop and rotary-wing turboshaft engines that powered aircraft in Russian service. In 2014, Motor Sich severed ties with Russia, which was its biggest client, and consequently had to look for new markets. It had no money. China was looking to advance its aerospace engine development and lost no time in knocking at Motor Sich’s door. Before this, China was already using Ukrainian engines to most of its fighter planes – from J-10 and all the way to J-20.

In 2017, China’s Skyrizon Aviation purchased a 41% holding in the company. Skyrizon Aviation agreed to invest $250 million in its Zaporizhzhia plant and helped Motor Sich to set up a new assembly and servicing plant in Chongqing.

But mood was already fast changing in Ukraine. NATO wannabe Volodymyr Zelenskyy was firmly in power. In March 2021, the Ukrainian government announced its intention to nationalize Motor Sich by buying back shares from Chinese holders. Zelenskyy also signed a decree imposing sanctions on Skyrizon. The latter responded with a $3.5 billion arbitration suit. Again, it was obviously who was behind the decision.

Be that as it may, China had two good years to do what they wanted in Motor Sich. With its unparallel ability to absorb and improve, China began to come up with advanced engines. The rest is history.

(Incidentally, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Motor Sic’s Zaporizhzhia plant had been struck multiple times by the Russians. It could have been destroyed by now.)

In naval technology
Besides jet engines, China had also used Ukraine’s UGT-25000 gas turbines to power its warships, including the very formidable Type 055 destroyers, which have a displacement of 13,000 tonnes.

Today, Chinese are eagerly waiting for the full commissioning of the country’s Type 003 aircraft carrier Fujian, said to be equipped with state-of-the-art electromagnetic catapult system. This feat could not have been possible without the covert purchase of an unfinished aircraft carrier from Ukraine in 1998.

We all know Liaoning (辽宁舰) is China’s first aircraft carrier. It was originally christened Riga and renamed Varyag in 1990. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, construction was halted, and the ship was put up for sale by Ukraine. The stripped hulk was sold in 1998 and after much delay, was towed to Dalian’s naval shipyard in 2002.

Xu Zengping is largely an unsung hero in China; he bought the ship in an auction in 1998 for $20 million, under the pretext of converting it into a casino.

The ship’s passage from Ukraine to China was torturous. When the tugboat approached the Bosphorus, Turkey denied permission for the ship to pass through, and the ship had to spend the next 16 months being towed around the Black Sea! China had to offer heavy trade and tourism concessions before it was allowed to move on. The whole journey was 28,200 km long and done under an average speed of six knots. Contrary to initial reports that the ship had no engines, all its four engines remained intact at the time of purchase. A refit restored them to working order in 2011. Today, it is in a combat-ready state.

Ukraine today
We all know the war has devastated the country. But Ukraine suffered brain drains even before the Russian invasion. Before the Soviet Union fell apart, Ukraine ranked second in terms of scientific potential amongst the fifteen former republics.

During the Soviet Union era, demand for research and innovation was largely oriented towards heavy industry and servicing military needs. It was incapable of adjusting. Some 20,000 young researchers soon left the country for greener pastures.

 

Coming of Age
After 30 years of relying on technologies from Ukraine, China is now completely capable of building their own military engines and turbines. Their advances have in fact frightened the US to a state of hysteria and paranoia.

We Chinese have a saying: 饮水思源 yǐn shuǐ sī yuan, which translates to "when drinking water, do think of its source. Even though China has arrived in terms of aerospace technology, it should thank the Ukrainians for its incredible achievements.

Many Ukrainian scientists have collaborated with Chinese scientists and worked in China, in universities and in defence research bodies. It is estimated that some 50,000 to 100,000 Ukrainian citizens live in China today, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, and Harbin. There was a highly published account of a senior Ukrainian ocean engineering expert called Yurly Semenov who is now a professor at the Harbin Engineering University, one of China’s top defence research universities.

Geopolitics has strange twists and turns. Without Zelenskyy’s decision – thanks to US promptings, of course – Chinese scientists and engineers might still be struggling to master the complexity of the West’s advanced aerospace and naval technologies. 

Mad As Mad Does

All of us have heard Donald Trump’s idea of creating a riviera of the Middle East for Gaza. I thought he blared it out immediately after a wet dream, since even the eyes of his Chief of Staff Suzie Wiles and State Secretary Marco were screaming in disbelief when they heard it. Surprisingly, though, several commentators argued that he was in fact serious. They relate it to his desire to repossess the Panama Canal. Their thesis, the Suez Canal is just below Gaza; controlling Gaza is as good as controlling the Suez Canal when the situation so requires.

Riviera Gaza de Trump

Or maybe he is indeed a genius or extraordinarily foresightful. He wants to make sure that all the strategic waterways in the world – the English Channel, the Malacca Strait, the Hormuz Strait, The Suez Canal, and the Panama Canal – are the US fleets’ playground. And by incorporating Canada and Greenland into the United States, he will also make the US into the biggest country in the world. He also needs to add the Baltic and Artic shipping routes into his equation.

Knowing Trump’s shallowness in history and geopolitics, I am inclined to say that a night before this outrageous statement of his, his son-in-law has just whispered the real estate potential of Gaza to him and as a through and through real estate man, the idea just clicked. He envisions a riviera complete with a Trump Tower, marinas, casinos, theme parks, and maybe its 360 sq.km can also house a 36-hole golf course.

But this man is so callous; he just does not care about the fifty thousand people – most of them women and children – who have been killed and the 1.6 million refugees the war has created since 7 October 2023. Trump personifies the worst of human nature. His unscrupulousness stinks to high heaven.

He is happy to see Gaza cleaned of the debris and the refugees by the Israelis so that he can mobilize America to create the riviera. How sick can this man be?

An absolute monarch
He is an emperor who does not care for his people. Everyone can be dispensed with, even if you are a court jester.

Elon Musk has been tasked with wielding a big axe to cut down the size of the federal government. Several departments will be closed and heavily downsized. Tens of thousands of workers will lose their jobs in the next couple of months. His 8-month voluntary severance package is already on the table for anyone to take. This severance will be particularly painful for those in mid-level positions. How many can get a decent job when you are in already your forties or so? And what about your mortgage, children’s college fees, etc?

Foreign policy
MAGA is not about Making America Great Again; it is about making Donald Trump being remembered by Americans as a great president even though he has delivered or will deliver little in substance.

His policy is clear: He is the absolute emperor; other leaders should kowtow to him. And every country’s interest must be subservient to the US’s. No other way.

His weapon: Tariffs!

Can it work? Only those who did Economics 202 think tariffs can help him accomplish the MAGA mission!

Strangely, though, he has yet to make any harsh statement on Chinese President Xi Jinping or China, save the tariff stuff. However, he has allowed his State Secretary Marco Rubio to spew venom on China during his recent South America tour. His national security Michael Waltz is another China hawk; it is unlikely that he will hold his tongue either. I suppose Trump is using them to test waters. But when it is time to test the pudding, they will not be allowed to cross the line. I suspect they will be reduced to glorified Secretaries. Few doubts Rubio can last more than 12 months. By that time, his political career is also gone. Come to think of it, maybe this is the way Trump is plotting to finish him off, since he has spoken against Trump previously.

We all know Trump is a racist through and through. Yes, he does have a soft spot for a few exceptions, like the Supreme Court justice Clarence Thomas who is Black. (Maybe it is because his white wife Ginni has been a strong Trump supporter.) But Vivek Ramaswamy could not last more than a month in DoGE; I bet Trump’s FBI pick Kash Patel will have to quit once he has finished Biden and the remnant skeletons in his closet. He is simply too “South Indian” to Trump.

Monkey King wreaks havoc in heaven
Readers must have read or heard about the Chinese classic Journey to the West (西遊記, Xīyóu-Jì) where Monkey King Sūn Wù Kōng (孙悟空) went straight to the heaven to wreak havoc (dà nào Tiān Gong, 大闹天宫). Musk is Trump’s Sūn Wù Kōng. Trump is using him to shake up the federal bureaucracy. Musk has handpicked a team of six young, highly skilled tech experts to help him unravel its state of complacency, starting with the Office of Personnel Management and then spread out to the Justice Department, Environmental Protection Agency, the Education Department, the offices of the various Inspector-Generals, CIA and USAID. Even the judges are not spared. The Fed is also in the crosshair, spared for the time being, thanks to its “beyond-the-President” status.

I seem to detect two conflicting objectives in this pursuit. Trump is driven by his desire for vengeance; however, Musk may genuinely believe in driving efficiency. There is an unintended consequence arising out of Musk drive: He has shaken a big part of America’s “Deep State” – from the records he has obtained from the CIA/USAID operations. The names of some 5,000 journalists in 30 plus countries are now at risk of being exposed! Watch out for those on-the-take journalists in our region, your name may appear soon!

A global ambition that is devoid of principle or philosophy
Can an American leader who is without much principle and philosophy bring the world to a better place?

The answer is obviously NO. He has pulled the US out of WHO, ICJ, the Paris Climate Agreement, Human Rights Council and halted all US funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA). He has also threatened to withdraw from the United Nations.

Trump can bully all these helpless peoples – starting with the leaders of Columbia who had to eat his humble pie, followed by Mexico and Canada who had to submit to his demand, and Panama who suddenly lost his balls on the country’s BRI position. And Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba is now crawling to the emperor to ask for Trump’s baptism. (If not for shooting his own foot at home, Korea’s Yoon Suk Yul would also be hard practising his golf to lose a game or two to Trump just in case he got summoned by the emperor. Ditto Ferdinand Marcos Junior, who is still trying to stir shit in the South China Sea hoping that he could get whacked so that he could gain some sympathy from the emperor too.)

The takeover of Canada, Greenland and Gaza may be outlandish contemplations of his to ordinary mortals like us, but these wild ideas will in fact help him to generate more possibilities.

But tougher leaders like Russia’s Vladimir Putin and North Korea’s Kim Jong Un will just give him their middle fingers. (He has to backtrack on his ending “the Ukraine War in one day” and “Visiting China within 100 days” shouts.) (According to today’s South China Morning Post, Trump says he loves to talk to Xi. 😅) 

There is an unintended consequence, though. He might be happy to leave Taiwan to China to decide. William Lai Cheng-te, you better watch out too!

And can Trump and Musk survive the "clicks" of the Deep State snipers? 

End

Same Roots, Different Destinies…

I should have done History instead of Engineering in university! I did not quite realise my passion until much later in life; so, there is no room for regrets.

When China was a weak nation, few in Japan, Korea and Vietnam would want to say that they were descendants of Han Chinese. And you can read all sorts of evidence presented by their anthropologists to say how different their people are from Han Chinese in terms of genes.  

Commonsense tells me this, though:

The Koreans are certainly Han Chinese in origin. Old Korea was founded by a Shang nobleman箕子(Ji-zi) circa 11^th century BCE. Of course, there was much inter-tribal or -racial cross-fertilisation later on, particularly during the Yuan period, when the Mongol empire was preparing to conquer Japan from the Korean peninsula. And we know the Mongols by then were already a mixed bag of northern and central Asians.

As for Japan, legend has it that Xú Fú (徐福) was dispatched by Qin Shi Huang (秦始皇) to the “eastern” sea to look for the elixir of life. His two journeys occurred between 219 BCE and 210 BCE. It was said that his fleets included 60 barques with soldiers, ship crewmen, and 3,000 boys and 3,000 girls, and craftsmen of different fields. He came back empty handed and had to cook up some excuses. Xu then set sail again in 201 BCE. And according to the Shiji (史记) – the Records of the Grand Historian (Sima Qian (司马迁) – says he came to a place with "flat plains and wide swamps" and proclaimed himself king, never to return. The place is believed to be Japan.

But I think many Koreans had already established their roots in Japan by then. The aborigines in Japan had largely been displaced to the north.

My conclusion: the bloodline of Koreans and non-aboriginal Japanese is Han Chinese through and through.

As for Vietnam, their ethnic majority is Kinh. Its ethnography is similar to several of the minority tribes in southern China. Of course, the nation is too proud to say that they had been largely Sinicized until the French came in.

As Chinese ethnically, I naturally like to know China better. However, I don’t say I am totally proud of China’s history, for I have concluded that many of our past leaders had shot their own feet and resulted in the country being ruled by ethnic minorities like the Mongols in the Yuan dynasty and the Manchus in the Qing dynasty. (Pockets here and there have also variously come under non-Han lordships in China’s earlier history.) I am not being racist, but the policies or decisions of these non-Han rulers during their reigns did set back China’s progress many a time. Fortunately, despite of these disruptions, China’s unique culture has survived to this day, thanks to the philosophy that our sages have handed down to us, particularly the Ru (儒) teachings, which have helped to raise the bar of ethos in East and Southeast Asia.

Ru practices (in ethics, governance and social harmony) began during the Zhou Dynasty (1046-256 BCE), well before Confucius (551- 479 BCE) advocated and documented them. Besides Ru, there were also competing schools like Legalism, Daoism, Mohism and even Buddhism, that helped to shape Chineseness or East Asian-ness.  

And the means of this wide dissemination has been Chinese writing. (Unfortunately, I failed to use much Chinese after I started work. As a result, I can hardly write Chinese today!)

The earliest form of written Chinese was found during the Shang Dynasty (14^th-11^th centuries BCE) – inscribed on bones and turtle shells. But for it to exist in that form then, it must have been around for at least a couple of centuries already. Evolvement takes time. (Again, I do not mean to be racist, for the written language to be conceived and structured as such, the brains of Chinese must be something.!)

Written Chinese is unique; it carries certain retention power that few can match. Once you know a character, it will stay in your mind virtually for good. Because of the feudalistic tradition of her time, my late mother was not given the opportunity to attend school, yet she could read the name of every shop in town. But she could not write them out. (Her mother, or my maternal grandmother, ironically, was well tutored in classical Chinese).

Ever wonder why Chinese are generally so good in Mathematics? This is again another chauvinistic opinion of mine: The numbers one to ten are each expressed with a single sound. This largely facilities counting, especially in multiplications. (However, it is not without shortcomings – in expressing chemical formulas and in computer commands.)

Another strength in Chinese writing is its expandability to accommodate newly found or developed things. There are specific root (or radical or indexing) components for them to build on, examples of which are: 金 jin for metals, 氵(三点水 (sān-diǎn shuǐ) for liquid-related materials, 木, mù for wooden matters, 土, tǔr for soil- or earth-related stuffs, and 虫, chóng for insect- or worm-related creatures.

Other examples are:

• 刀 (dāo, knife) in 分 (fēn, to divide), 召 (zhào, shào, to summon), 切 (qiē, to cut),
• 人 (rén, man) in 囚 (qiú, prisoner), 坐 (zuò, to sit), 他 (tā, other or he), 从 (Trad. 從 cóng, from or since),
•  心 (heart) in 杺, 您, and 恭(when written at the foot of a character),
• 手 (hand) in 杽, 拏, 掱 扡, 拜,
• 火 (fire) in 伙, 秋, 灱, 災,
• 犬 (dog) in 伏, 状 ~ 狙,
• Etc.

(These are meant as illustrations and I have therefore not bothered to read out every line for readers. They can be easily deciphered from any search engine.)

 

A component of my given name is 木 (mù, single tree or wood in this instance). It can give rise to 林 (lín) which means a light forest. When three 木’s are used, it becomes 森 (sēn), which stands for thick forest or jungle. This is a feature of the language that none other possesses.

Chinese writing has no equals in these arts: Poetry, idioms, ceremonial messages, and even expressions of subtleties, good or bad.

When China began to simplify many of the Chinese characters, local papers began to adopt the practice and that also frustrated me a great deal. I had much difficulty in trying to figure some of them out. I thought the simplification had somewhat damaged the very fabric of its strength. Thankfully, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan are still sticking to the old forms.

Written Chinese was also the source of Japanese, Korean and Vietnamese writings. I was quite ignorant of this until a old JETRO (Japan External Trade Organisation) expert Rohei Nonaka became a colleague of mine when I was serving in the Federal Industrial Development Authority (FIDA, now Malaysian Industrial Development Authority MIDA) in the 1970s. Despite our age gap and the anti-Japanese sentiment generally harboured by colleagues then, we became friends. From him, I came to know a great deal about the fineness of Japanese culture and practices, and he would take pain to tell me that these were learned from China in the first place.

The late Geh Sim Hong had also helped enlighten my understanding of the Japanese language. (Geh was already the second in command in FIDA when I was just a junior officer there. We got to know each other well after we were no longer in FIDA – he retired, and I quit for greener pasture.) He told me that there are many terms in Japanese which are Hokkien in pronunciation. He reckoned this was so because of Buddhism. He was definitely right; but maybe I should add that it is not Hokkien but the Ming-nan dialect (閩南語) that he was actually referring to.

More of this later.

Japan: Selective use of Chinese characters

It is said that the waves of migration from China and the Korean peninsula started during Yayoi Period (300 BCE to 300 CE) and this had shaped the foundation of the Japanese writing. Chinese characters Kanji (汉字Hàn-zì), alongside Buddhism, began to be adopted in the 5^th or 6^th century. But Chinese as a spoken language did not quite fit the Japanese speech sounds and the language began to develop a distinct grammar, phonology and vocabulary in the 8^th century – in the form of katakana (partial Chinese characters – such asカタカナ) and hiragana (simple characters derived from the more complex Chinese characters おとこ). Modern Japanese, however, began only in the Edo (Tokyo) period (1603-1867) – with many loanwords from other languages.

Nonetheless, Chinese characters continue to anchor in the language, with many definitive terms written in this form.

Korea: Abandonment of Chinese writing

My wife loves Korean drama. I do join in to watch from time to time. I must say they are now a cut above most others in cinematics. It is also from watching these dramas that I came to conclude that Korean is laden with many Ming-nan terms.

South Koreans call their country 韩国 Hanguk (pinyin Hánguó) and North Koreans call theirs Chosŏn, which when written in Chinese is朝鮮 (pinyin Cháoxiǎn). Korea, however, comes from the term高丽 (Trad. 高麗, Gāolí).

If not for the North-South divide, we would have identified modern Korea as a whole Hán (韩). I do not know the origin of the term save for this from my googling: The historicity of Hán in premodern Korea is disputed. The contemporary concept of Hán, as a national characteristic of the Korean people, originated only during the Japanese occupation of the peninsula, characterising the Korean art and culture as "sorrowful". However, this Chinese-origin character had actually been used in the names of the states in the peninsula in ancient times (Ma-hán, Jin-hán) and as a Korean surname. (Some Chinese also go by this surname.)

Ancient Korea traces its beginning to China’s Shang dynasty some three thousand years ago. It is identified as Gojoseon (古朝鮮 Gǔ Zhāo-Xiān; Go or Gǔ means “Ancient”). The first written historical record on Gojoseon was found in Guan-zi’s (管子) political and philosophical text compiled in the early Han dynasty (202 BCE – 9 AD). (Earlier versions had it dated back to the late Warring States period circa 7th century BCE.)

In 108 BCE, Gojoseon eventually fell to the Han rule of China. Many civil wars followed. (Koreans also had their own, not one but two “Three Kingdoms” periods.)

Tang ruled China from 618 to 907 CE; it was during this period that Buddhism flowed from Korea to Japan.

In 918 the country achieved national unification as Goryeo 高丽. The name Goryeo developed into the modern exonym "Korea".

During the 13th century, Goryeo became a vassal state of the Yuan (Mongol) Empire. It was from the peninsula that the Mongols tried to invade Japan. Thanks to two typhoons which sank and scattered Mongol fleets, Japan was spared. (Japan called them the divine winds.) Ever wonder why many Koreans have Mongol or Central Asian features? Apparently, the blood “infusion” happened during this era – when many Mongol warriors were garrisoned in the peninsula.  

Ming kicked out the Mongols in 1368 and General Yi Seong-gye established the Joseon (朝鮮) dynasty in 1392 and ruled under the Ming umbrella.

From the above, we can see that the nationhood of Koreans was much intertwined with China’s.

Be that as it may, Sejong (世宗 - 李祹Yi To;1418–1450) boldly introduced numerous administrative, social, scientific, and economic reforms, established royal authority in the early years of the dynasty, and personally created Hangul, the Korean alphabet.

After enjoying a period of peace for about two centuries, situations turned tumultuous again for the Koreans – Japanese invasions and unequal treaties by foreign powers.

In 1897 Korean Empire came into existence, heralding a brief but rapid period of social reform and modernization. But in 1905, it was again forced to sign a protectorate treaty and in 1910, effectively annexed by Japan. Korean resistance manifested.

After the end of World War II, the Allies partitioned the country into two. In 1950 Kim Il Sung launched the Korean War in an attempt to reunify the country. The war ended with a ceasefire in 1953. In 1991, both states were accepted into the United Nations.

Before Ji-zi (箕子), Korean was only a spoken language. Its linguistic homeland is believed to be somewhere in Manchuria. The Chinese characters were used in their written form; however, the characters were read with Sino-Xenic pronunciations (the extensive borrowing of Chinese words into languages that are not genetically related to Chinese) since the 1st century BCE (the Han Dynasty) and remained the medium of formal writing and government until the late 19th century.

Korean society was steep in Ru traditions and scholarship. (To this day, many Koreans still contend that Confucius was Korean.) However, the society was feudalistic and only the privileged could have access to formal learning of classic Chinese writing. The poor were largely illiterate. The Confucian examinations were finally abolished in the late 19^th century – in the wake of growing Korean nationalism. (However, Ru etiquette continues until today.)

Hangul did not become the primary script until the 20th century. Nonetheless, the more intellectual Koreans are aware of the strength of written Chinese and are preserving it as a form of roots to their culture, especially in keeping genealogical records. (Different surnames can be written with one Korean word – Park (박) can mean 朴 (which is a common Korean surname), and it can also mean 博. Similarly, Jeong (정) can also apply to 鄭 or 丁 or 靜. And if expressions of Chinese origin are read in Korean, they sound very Ming-nan indeed! (Amongst them: missing – si-chong, skill – ki-soot, complicated – fok-chap, heart – sim-cheong, princess – kong-ju, bridegroom – sin-nang, poisonous snake – tok-se, student – hup-seng, take part – cham-kar, pig’s foot – chu-kar, sincere – chin-sim, divorce – li-hoon, success – seng-kong, democratic – ming-chu, etc. I picked these up from the Korean dramas and stand corrected!)

Vietnam: A total switch to western form

Extensive contacts with Chinese began from the Han dynasty. At this time, Vietic groups began to expand south from the Red River Delta and into the adjacent uplands.

After expelling the Chinese at the beginning of the 10th century, the Ngô dynasty adopted Classical Chinese as the formal medium of government, scholarship and literature. With the dominance of Chinese came wholesale importation of Chinese vocabulary. The resulting Sino-Vietnamese vocabulary makes up about a third of the Vietnamese lexicon in all realms, and may account for as much as 60% of the vocabulary used in formal texts.

Vietic languages were confined to the northern third of modern Vietnam until the "southward advance" (Nam tiến) from the late 15th century. The conquest of the ancient nation of Champa and the conquest of the Mekong Delta led to an expansion of the Vietnamese people and language, with distinctive local variations emerging.

But they were written in Chinese characters.

After France invaded Vietnam in the late 19th century, French gradually replaced Literary Chinese as the official language in education and government. Vietnamese adopted many French terms, resulting in a language that was Austroasiatic with both Sino and French influences. (The former sounds quite Hainanese to me!)

Officially adopted in the early 20^th century, the Vietnamese alphabet today is based on the Latin script but with digraphs and diacritics to mark tones and some phonemes.

The Vietnamese have chosen to abandon the source of their language. This will in due course likely to deprive their people of the understanding of the roots of their history and culture. Good or bad, only time can tell.

Drawing some conclusions…

Phonetically, written Chinese is certainly difficult to express in other languages and vice versa. You can therefore understand why the Japanese and the Koreans had long decided to choose different paths to develop their own. But Chinese characters are unique; they have been so logically developed and constructed that many remain the backbone of Japan’s definitive words and expressions. Korea chose to abandon the system and go for a totally new form – when China was transiting from Yuan into Ming. The wise Sejong thought it was time to transform Koreans.  

As for the Vietnamese, I see the westernisation of their language as something regressive. Spoken Vietnamese can easily be definitively written in Chinese. The system that the French had imparted on them, though can express their mother tongue well, is also a baggage to knowing their past and learning their roots better.

Written Chinese has been around for more than three millennia and with China’s reemergence today, it is going to be even more widely used.

These are just personal opinions, though. Feel free to disagree!