Same Roots, Different Destinies…

I should have done History instead of Engineering in university! I did not quite realise my passion until much later in life; so, there is no room for regrets.

When China was a weak nation, few in Japan, Korea and Vietnam would want to say that they were descendants of Han Chinese. And you can read all sorts of evidence presented by their anthropologists to say how different their people are from Han Chinese in terms of genes.  

Commonsense tells me this, though:

The Koreans are certainly Han Chinese in origin. Old Korea was founded by a Shang nobleman箕子(Ji-zi) circa 11^th century BCE. Of course, there was much inter-tribal or -racial cross-fertilisation later on, particularly during the Yuan period, when the Mongol empire was preparing to conquer Japan from the Korean peninsula. And we know the Mongols by then were already a mixed bag of northern and central Asians.

As for Japan, legend has it that Xú Fú (徐福) was dispatched by Qin Shi Huang (秦始皇) to the “eastern” sea to look for the elixir of life. His two journeys occurred between 219 BCE and 210 BCE. It was said that his fleets included 60 barques with soldiers, ship crewmen, and 3,000 boys and 3,000 girls, and craftsmen of different fields. He came back empty handed and had to cook up some excuses. Xu then set sail again in 201 BCE. And according to the Shiji (史记) – the Records of the Grand Historian (Sima Qian (司马迁) – says he came to a place with "flat plains and wide swamps" and proclaimed himself king, never to return. The place is believed to be Japan.

But I think many Koreans had already established their roots in Japan by then. The aborigines in Japan had largely been displaced to the north.

My conclusion: the bloodline of Koreans and non-aboriginal Japanese is Han Chinese through and through.

As for Vietnam, their ethnic majority is Kinh. Its ethnography is similar to several of the minority tribes in southern China. Of course, the nation is too proud to say that they had been largely Sinicized until the French came in.

As Chinese ethnically, I naturally like to know China better. However, I don’t say I am totally proud of China’s history, for I have concluded that many of our past leaders had shot their own feet and resulted in the country being ruled by ethnic minorities like the Mongols in the Yuan dynasty and the Manchus in the Qing dynasty. (Pockets here and there have also variously come under non-Han lordships in China’s earlier history.) I am not being racist, but the policies or decisions of these non-Han rulers during their reigns did set back China’s progress many a time. Fortunately, despite of these disruptions, China’s unique culture has survived to this day, thanks to the philosophy that our sages have handed down to us, particularly the Ru (儒) teachings, which have helped to raise the bar of ethos in East and Southeast Asia.

Ru practices (in ethics, governance and social harmony) began during the Zhou Dynasty (1046-256 BCE), well before Confucius (551- 479 BCE) advocated and documented them. Besides Ru, there were also competing schools like Legalism, Daoism, Mohism and even Buddhism, that helped to shape Chineseness or East Asian-ness.  

And the means of this wide dissemination has been Chinese writing. (Unfortunately, I failed to use much Chinese after I started work. As a result, I can hardly write Chinese today!)

The earliest form of written Chinese was found during the Shang Dynasty (14^th-11^th centuries BCE) – inscribed on bones and turtle shells. But for it to exist in that form then, it must have been around for at least a couple of centuries already. Evolvement takes time. (Again, I do not mean to be racist, for the written language to be conceived and structured as such, the brains of Chinese must be something.!)

Written Chinese is unique; it carries certain retention power that few can match. Once you know a character, it will stay in your mind virtually for good. Because of the feudalistic tradition of her time, my late mother was not given the opportunity to attend school, yet she could read the name of every shop in town. But she could not write them out. (Her mother, or my maternal grandmother, ironically, was well tutored in classical Chinese).

Ever wonder why Chinese are generally so good in Mathematics? This is again another chauvinistic opinion of mine: The numbers one to ten are each expressed with a single sound. This largely facilities counting, especially in multiplications. (However, it is not without shortcomings – in expressing chemical formulas and in computer commands.)

Another strength in Chinese writing is its expandability to accommodate newly found or developed things. There are specific root (or radical or indexing) components for them to build on, examples of which are: 金 jin for metals, 氵(三点水 (sān-diǎn shuǐ) for liquid-related materials, 木, mù for wooden matters, 土, tǔr for soil- or earth-related stuffs, and 虫, chóng for insect- or worm-related creatures.

Other examples are:

• 刀 (dāo, knife) in 分 (fēn, to divide), 召 (zhào, shào, to summon), 切 (qiē, to cut),
• 人 (rén, man) in 囚 (qiú, prisoner), 坐 (zuò, to sit), 他 (tā, other or he), 从 (Trad. 從 cóng, from or since),
•  心 (heart) in 杺, 您, and 恭(when written at the foot of a character),
• 手 (hand) in 杽, 拏, 掱 扡, 拜,
• 火 (fire) in 伙, 秋, 灱, 災,
• 犬 (dog) in 伏, 状 ~ 狙,
• Etc.

(These are meant as illustrations and I have therefore not bothered to read out every line for readers. They can be easily deciphered from any search engine.)

 

A component of my given name is 木 (mù, single tree or wood in this instance). It can give rise to 林 (lín) which means a light forest. When three 木’s are used, it becomes 森 (sēn), which stands for thick forest or jungle. This is a feature of the language that none other possesses.

Chinese writing has no equals in these arts: Poetry, idioms, ceremonial messages, and even expressions of subtleties, good or bad.

When China began to simplify many of the Chinese characters, local papers began to adopt the practice and that also frustrated me a great deal. I had much difficulty in trying to figure some of them out. I thought the simplification had somewhat damaged the very fabric of its strength. Thankfully, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan are still sticking to the old forms.

Written Chinese was also the source of Japanese, Korean and Vietnamese writings. I was quite ignorant of this until a old JETRO (Japan External Trade Organisation) expert Rohei Nonaka became a colleague of mine when I was serving in the Federal Industrial Development Authority (FIDA, now Malaysian Industrial Development Authority MIDA) in the 1970s. Despite our age gap and the anti-Japanese sentiment generally harboured by colleagues then, we became friends. From him, I came to know a great deal about the fineness of Japanese culture and practices, and he would take pain to tell me that these were learned from China in the first place.

The late Geh Sim Hong had also helped enlighten my understanding of the Japanese language. (Geh was already the second in command in FIDA when I was just a junior officer there. We got to know each other well after we were no longer in FIDA – he retired, and I quit for greener pasture.) He told me that there are many terms in Japanese which are Hokkien in pronunciation. He reckoned this was so because of Buddhism. He was definitely right; but maybe I should add that it is not Hokkien but the Ming-nan dialect (閩南語) that he was actually referring to.

More of this later.

Japan: Selective use of Chinese characters

It is said that the waves of migration from China and the Korean peninsula started during Yayoi Period (300 BCE to 300 CE) and this had shaped the foundation of the Japanese writing. Chinese characters Kanji (汉字Hàn-zì), alongside Buddhism, began to be adopted in the 5^th or 6^th century. But Chinese as a spoken language did not quite fit the Japanese speech sounds and the language began to develop a distinct grammar, phonology and vocabulary in the 8^th century – in the form of katakana (partial Chinese characters – such asカタカナ) and hiragana (simple characters derived from the more complex Chinese characters おとこ). Modern Japanese, however, began only in the Edo (Tokyo) period (1603-1867) – with many loanwords from other languages.

Nonetheless, Chinese characters continue to anchor in the language, with many definitive terms written in this form.

Korea: Abandonment of Chinese writing

My wife loves Korean drama. I do join in to watch from time to time. I must say they are now a cut above most others in cinematics. It is also from watching these dramas that I came to conclude that Korean is laden with many Ming-nan terms.

South Koreans call their country 韩国 Hanguk (pinyin Hánguó) and North Koreans call theirs Chosŏn, which when written in Chinese is朝鮮 (pinyin Cháoxiǎn). Korea, however, comes from the term高丽 (Trad. 高麗, Gāolí).

If not for the North-South divide, we would have identified modern Korea as a whole Hán (韩). I do not know the origin of the term save for this from my googling: The historicity of Hán in premodern Korea is disputed. The contemporary concept of Hán, as a national characteristic of the Korean people, originated only during the Japanese occupation of the peninsula, characterising the Korean art and culture as "sorrowful". However, this Chinese-origin character had actually been used in the names of the states in the peninsula in ancient times (Ma-hán, Jin-hán) and as a Korean surname. (Some Chinese also go by this surname.)

Ancient Korea traces its beginning to China’s Shang dynasty some three thousand years ago. It is identified as Gojoseon (古朝鮮 Gǔ Zhāo-Xiān; Go or Gǔ means “Ancient”). The first written historical record on Gojoseon was found in Guan-zi’s (管子) political and philosophical text compiled in the early Han dynasty (202 BCE – 9 AD). (Earlier versions had it dated back to the late Warring States period circa 7th century BCE.)

In 108 BCE, Gojoseon eventually fell to the Han rule of China. Many civil wars followed. (Koreans also had their own, not one but two “Three Kingdoms” periods.)

Tang ruled China from 618 to 907 CE; it was during this period that Buddhism flowed from Korea to Japan.

In 918 the country achieved national unification as Goryeo 高丽. The name Goryeo developed into the modern exonym "Korea".

During the 13th century, Goryeo became a vassal state of the Yuan (Mongol) Empire. It was from the peninsula that the Mongols tried to invade Japan. Thanks to two typhoons which sank and scattered Mongol fleets, Japan was spared. (Japan called them the divine winds.) Ever wonder why many Koreans have Mongol or Central Asian features? Apparently, the blood “infusion” happened during this era – when many Mongol warriors were garrisoned in the peninsula.  

Ming kicked out the Mongols in 1368 and General Yi Seong-gye established the Joseon (朝鮮) dynasty in 1392 and ruled under the Ming umbrella.

From the above, we can see that the nationhood of Koreans was much intertwined with China’s.

Be that as it may, Sejong (世宗 - 李祹Yi To;1418–1450) boldly introduced numerous administrative, social, scientific, and economic reforms, established royal authority in the early years of the dynasty, and personally created Hangul, the Korean alphabet.

After enjoying a period of peace for about two centuries, situations turned tumultuous again for the Koreans – Japanese invasions and unequal treaties by foreign powers.

In 1897 Korean Empire came into existence, heralding a brief but rapid period of social reform and modernization. But in 1905, it was again forced to sign a protectorate treaty and in 1910, effectively annexed by Japan. Korean resistance manifested.

After the end of World War II, the Allies partitioned the country into two. In 1950 Kim Il Sung launched the Korean War in an attempt to reunify the country. The war ended with a ceasefire in 1953. In 1991, both states were accepted into the United Nations.

Before Ji-zi (箕子), Korean was only a spoken language. Its linguistic homeland is believed to be somewhere in Manchuria. The Chinese characters were used in their written form; however, the characters were read with Sino-Xenic pronunciations (the extensive borrowing of Chinese words into languages that are not genetically related to Chinese) since the 1st century BCE (the Han Dynasty) and remained the medium of formal writing and government until the late 19th century.

Korean society was steep in Ru traditions and scholarship. (To this day, many Koreans still contend that Confucius was Korean.) However, the society was feudalistic and only the privileged could have access to formal learning of classic Chinese writing. The poor were largely illiterate. The Confucian examinations were finally abolished in the late 19^th century – in the wake of growing Korean nationalism. (However, Ru etiquette continues until today.)

Hangul did not become the primary script until the 20th century. Nonetheless, the more intellectual Koreans are aware of the strength of written Chinese and are preserving it as a form of roots to their culture, especially in keeping genealogical records. (Different surnames can be written with one Korean word – Park (박) can mean 朴 (which is a common Korean surname), and it can also mean 博. Similarly, Jeong (정) can also apply to 鄭 or 丁 or 靜. And if expressions of Chinese origin are read in Korean, they sound very Ming-nan indeed! (Amongst them: missing – si-chong, skill – ki-soot, complicated – fok-chap, heart – sim-cheong, princess – kong-ju, bridegroom – sin-nang, poisonous snake – tok-se, student – hup-seng, take part – cham-kar, pig’s foot – chu-kar, sincere – chin-sim, divorce – li-hoon, success – seng-kong, democratic – ming-chu, etc. I picked these up from the Korean dramas and stand corrected!)

Vietnam: A total switch to western form

Extensive contacts with Chinese began from the Han dynasty. At this time, Vietic groups began to expand south from the Red River Delta and into the adjacent uplands.

After expelling the Chinese at the beginning of the 10th century, the Ngô dynasty adopted Classical Chinese as the formal medium of government, scholarship and literature. With the dominance of Chinese came wholesale importation of Chinese vocabulary. The resulting Sino-Vietnamese vocabulary makes up about a third of the Vietnamese lexicon in all realms, and may account for as much as 60% of the vocabulary used in formal texts.

Vietic languages were confined to the northern third of modern Vietnam until the "southward advance" (Nam tiến) from the late 15th century. The conquest of the ancient nation of Champa and the conquest of the Mekong Delta led to an expansion of the Vietnamese people and language, with distinctive local variations emerging.

But they were written in Chinese characters.

After France invaded Vietnam in the late 19th century, French gradually replaced Literary Chinese as the official language in education and government. Vietnamese adopted many French terms, resulting in a language that was Austroasiatic with both Sino and French influences. (The former sounds quite Hainanese to me!)

Officially adopted in the early 20^th century, the Vietnamese alphabet today is based on the Latin script but with digraphs and diacritics to mark tones and some phonemes.

The Vietnamese have chosen to abandon the source of their language. This will in due course likely to deprive their people of the understanding of the roots of their history and culture. Good or bad, only time can tell.

Drawing some conclusions…

Phonetically, written Chinese is certainly difficult to express in other languages and vice versa. You can therefore understand why the Japanese and the Koreans had long decided to choose different paths to develop their own. But Chinese characters are unique; they have been so logically developed and constructed that many remain the backbone of Japan’s definitive words and expressions. Korea chose to abandon the system and go for a totally new form – when China was transiting from Yuan into Ming. The wise Sejong thought it was time to transform Koreans.  

As for the Vietnamese, I see the westernisation of their language as something regressive. Spoken Vietnamese can easily be definitively written in Chinese. The system that the French had imparted on them, though can express their mother tongue well, is also a baggage to knowing their past and learning their roots better.

Written Chinese has been around for more than three millennia and with China’s reemergence today, it is going to be even more widely used.

These are just personal opinions, though. Feel free to disagree!

 

Xi Jinping’s “Once-in-a-Century Upheaval” Prophecy

Lately, this line “百年未有之大变局 (Bǎi Nián Wèi Yǒu Zhī Dà Biàn Jú)” had often been on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s lips when he made policy speeches or formally received foreign heads of states or governments. He is alluding to an upheaval he sees on the horizon, and he is urging the world to take note and prepare for it.

Crisis = Danger/Opportunity

I do not suppose he means “one hundred years” exactly, for there is no historical evidence to show that world shattering events have been occurring on a hundred-year cycle. World War I ended in 1918, and World War II began in 1939 – in less than 20 years. China overthrew the Manchus in 1911, and it went through a tumultuous time until the People’s Republic of China was proclaimed in 1949. Great Depression devastated the Americans in the early 1930s. The first Oil Crisis occurred in 1973.  I do not see any discernable pattern.

Back to the subject.

I believe Xi is convinced that this dà biàn jú (大变局) will happen during Trump’s presidency and the new world order that will emerge is not going to be a bad thing – provided the world is preparing for it, like what China has already done.

The Grey Rhino[i]
Many scholars think that the present stare-down between China and the US fits well with the Thucydides’ Trap situation described by Graham Allison in his 2017 book. But China is not a Sparta, for it has no desire to challenge the “Athens” of the day, i.e., the US. However, if this “hundred-year” upheaval does happen, its impact on the world is going to be more profound than any past event. And ironically, the root of this change is China’s peaceful rise and the determination by an incumbent global hegemon to clobber it down.

I see the grey rhino started to grow during Barack Obama’s tenure – in November 2011 when he shifted his foreign policy to pivot to Asia. At home, he was frustrated by the country’s neo-Cons in several of the policies he was trying to implement at home. China was rising and this was an easier sell. Building relationships with China’s neighbours to counter its rise became a policy priority. Xi Jinping took office in 2012; it was clear that he would transform China. But Obama is an intellectual and not someone who would hit you below the belt. His approach was measured; he did not stir up any hornets’ nest. As the Vice President, Joe Biden was largely overshadowed, and we did not get to hear much of his stance on China. But what a savage beast he is!  

Donald Trump narrowly won the 2017 election. Hillary Clinton was too “mainstream”; Trump’s unconventionality represented a fresh hope, even though his character was an issue, let alone of the fact that he was hardly “Republican” in ideology. He visited China in November 2017 and what he saw in China must have shocked him to the core. Guided by his businessman instinct, he wanted China to pay for its success and lost no time – in January 2018 – to fire his first tariff salvo. Many more followed. Rounds of negotiations took place and both sides did reach some compromises – until COVID-19 struck. Trump’s inept handling of the pandemic cost him the presidency. He blamed China! (By then anti-China sentiment had already spread like wildfires across the US and indeed many parts of the world, thanks also to the riots in Hong Kong, which Western and pro-West media portrayed China as the villain, when it was clearly a CIA act.) And Tsai Ing-wen was welcoming all and sundry from the US to poison the China-US relationship further.

Trump was in a sorry state when Biden assumed the presidency. Everyone had deserted him. Biden had a chance to rejuvenate the country if he had chosen to work with China; instead, he went on not only to outdo Trump in trade matters, but to do everything possible to retard China. He was so consumed that he had totally neglected the life of the average Joe in America. And ironically, the person who would succeed him is his predecessor and a convicted felon for that matter.

Biden succeeded in rounding up the leaders of much of Western world, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and even a supposedly non-aligned India to be his blood brothers to his cause. Alliances – AUKUS, Five Eyes and what-have-you, were struck. But he and his team were clumsy; their narratives too make-believe and no sooner, audiences turned incredulous. Their roles in the Ukraine war and Gaza war showed the US’s true colours.    

Clash of Civilisations?
China’s continuous ascendence and ability to surpass (as a matter of course, not design) any country economically and technologically is just inevitable. Its human capital is simply too formidable both in breadth and depth. Its cultural ethos is different from the rest of the world. The West think they are holier than thou, China accepts everyone as equal. Samuel Huntington uses the term “clash of civilisations” to describe outcomes from differences like this, but I would argue that it is not a clash, but a unilateral attempt by a bully to eliminate a perceived threat from a brilliant, helpful and harmless newcomer. In China, if you do not seek to impose your values or religion on others, the state will not bother you. It does not patronize others and says its ways of governing and building social order are superior to any country.

And the US is not even a "nation" in the true sense of the word!

Several old civilisations have survived, but none has written records of their history the way the Chinese have been keeping them – continuously for three thousand years! The country has gone through civil wars, been ruled by minorities (twice for long periods – Yuan and Qing) and suffered humiliations from foreign powers as recent as the 1800s. It has finally reemerged and when it was clear that it was about to regain its place in the world then the US began to wield its sledgehammer to stop its rise. Xi knows his history well; he knows that because of US’s intolerance, a great change unseen for a long time is about to happen to China and with great ramifications to the world. And he is telling his compatriots and urging the world to prepare for a great geopolitical quake.

Only if Taiwan is not in the Equation...
If Taiwan is not a factor in this equation, China would have nothing to fear the Americans, come what may. China sees the bringing back of Taiwan to its fold as a sacred mission and is non-negotiable. Unfortunately, many Taiwanese have been so indoctrinated – by the legacy of the Japanese rule and the lure of Pax Americana – that they do not want Taiwan to be a part of China. Many still think the latter is a communist state. Forget about the cultural roots stuff; the separatists have no emotional attachment to it.

DPP’s hardline stance is a godsend opportunity for the US. Its leaders are so willing for Taiwan to serve as pawns for America to irritate China. Personally, Trump was quite ambivalent about Taiwan, but he allowed his key staff to run wild – Mike Pompeo (aided by his sidekick Yu Maochun), John Bolton, Nikii Haley, etc.

China has therefore to arm itself to the teeth – to deter US interference in the event that they have to take back Taiwan by force, which appears to be the only route that they can take now. Unfortunately, this also causes the neighbouring countries to be weary of China, despite what history has shown them.

Between Trump and Biden, Who is Prettier?

Humility is no virtue to American politicians, the exception being Jimmy Carter. To talk down or humiliate opponents is the way to claw to the top. Trump is a master in this art. Knowledge-poor and intellectually deficient Americans constitute most of the population and they love his style, even though much the world knows that he is really an emperor not knowing he has had no clothes.

Despite being a convicted felon, Trump will be sworn in as the 47^th President of the United States of America on January 20.

Trump is well known for his unscrupulousness, even to his close family members. He is a poker player; he will raise his stake sky-high even though he has had no cards. I would describe him as a diarrhoea patient, who will soil everywhere and leave to others to clean up his mess.

Anything can come out of Trump's mouth!
Many analysts have predicted that he will usher the world into the most uncharted territory in modern history. Even before he takes office, he has already humiliated Justin Trudeau by suggesting that Canada, which is perhaps America’s closest ally, should join the US as its 51^st state. He also wants to take back the Panama Canal and proposes to buy Greenland from Denmark. Such kuáng yán (狂言(mad talks) are not said out of jest, but with a degree of seriousness that even shocks America’s closest allies, save Israel. The message is clear, nobody, no matter how subservient you are to the US, will be spared if he wants to rape you!

(Trump reminds me of a real-estate billionaire I chanced upon to know when I was living in Sydney in the early 2000s. He is Harry Triguboff, a Jew born in Shanghai. Hearing that we were trying to sell a boutique hotel in one of the most coveted bays in Sydney, through an intermediary, he loudly offered A$40 million. When I finally met up with him, he sneeringly said to my face: Lousy property; A$20 million, take it or leave it!

Trump’s way is just like that, shouting up a threat but only to withdraw it without feeling any awkwardness if he is proven wrong. Didn’t he say he would end the Ukraine war within 24 hours? What does he say now? Ditto his Canada, Greenland and Panama mad talks. To me, they were made just to project his imperial pretensions, nothing more than that.)

Who is next?
The leaders – in EU and elsewhere – whom Biden has rallied to the US’s corner are likely to be flushed down Trump’s WC. You have already seen Trump’s deep dislikes for queen bees like Nancy Pelosi; Ursula von der Leyen will certainly be amongst his first victims in this category. Sissies like Trudeau are also not his cup of tea. (And this backboneless sissy is quick to move aside.) Pseudo saints like Narendra Modi and leaders cloaked in religious robes are also going to be no-no to him. Only machos like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un will be treated with great respect. And I suspect leaders like Marcos Jr and Lai Ching-te will be known just as “who’s that fellow?” when he has to make references about them. Even Japan and Korea; they mean little to him.

Despite his “China, China, China” finger-pointing menace, he knows he cannot raise his voice against Xi Jinping. But this inferiority complex is like a sword that cuts both ways.

Trump’s trade war against China was a failure by any count. Under normal circumstances, this “luàn lái” (乱来, absolutely reckless) man would certainly become another ex-President. Fortunately for him, his successor Biden, instead of cashing on Trump’s silliness and working with China to nurture a sick America to shape, got himself totally consumed by taking every possible measure to retard China. He messed up the country and gave Trump an easy win over his anointed successor Kamala Harris.  Much credit of Biden’s downfall should be given to his harebrained team – Antony Blinken, Janet Yellen, Llyod Austin, Gina Raimondo, Katherine Tai, and Nicholas Burns. Burns was only the US’s ambassador to China, but this nincompoop deserves my special citation for a simple reason: Instead of advising Biden and his team what was truly happening in China, he fed stuff that they loved to hear so that they could demonize and further sanction China. (He was probably watching CNN all the time.)

Biden has only a few days left in the Oval Office, yet this sicko is still furiously and viciously sanctioning China. Don’t Americans understand Economics 101? If you impoverish China, you also kill a market that no other country can replace? No wonder Nvidia’s Jensen Huang is hopping mad! And in his farewell speech, he was so shameless as to claim that, thanks to his presidency, America had won against China and China could never surpass America! An old fool indeed.

Knight turning into a Frankenstein
Kishore Mahbubani tends to describe the situation that China and the US are having now as a race, as if there should be a winner at the end of the day. I beg to disagree with this thinker even though I salute him for his championship of China’s causes. China’s national mission is not to beat the Americans; it just wants its people to have a better tomorrow. Winning is not a be-all-and-end-all pursuit; continuous self-improvement is. “Admiral” Zheng-he gave the Ming rulers the impression that there was no longer any need for them to set sail after several voyages, since China was well ahead of the world as far as they knew. But within a hundred years, China lost its superiority in maritime skills. Qing’s Emperor Qian Loong told off George Macartney. We all know the result. There is simply no room for complacency.

The term Mission in American leadership’s minds tends to be anchored on misplaced beliefs. Biden’s mission was to contain China’s rise at all costs. But the horse has already bolted, and the only tool left in his kit is America’s shaky might in the semiconductor industry. But China’s no France or Japan (remember Alstrom and Toshiba?); its resilience was astonishing, despite sanctions after sanction. It is going to prove to be an un-accomplishable mission, but much harm has already been caused the world because of US actions – killing collaborations and stalling innovations, amongst others.  

Unfortunately, the knight that Trump created to address trade imbalances between the US and China had been fed steroid by Biden and is now a Frankenstein that will destroy America instead. Sinophobia has totally gripped the US today. Even its Supreme Court judges are not spared. They have just handed down a 9-0 decision to uphold the “sell-or-be-banned” on TikTok – all in the name of protecting America’s national security. But America’s young are not buying this paranoia anymore; they are flocking to Xiaohongshu (小红书, the Little Red Book) and call themselves “refugees”. 

The Seismic Shift Will Accelerate

America is already on course to lose its hegemon crown. Trump will accelerate the decline.

Never mind about the existing social ills facing the country – gun violence, infrastructure in dire needs of rejuvenation, rich-poor and race divides – and the general ignorance of lesser Americans. Trump is a white supremacist through and through. He will keep his word on closing the borders and expelling the illegals. Where is he going to get the blue-collar workers to man the factories, he wants Americans to bring back or build?

His tariff weapons will be used – both against friends and foes – on anything if he thinks America is being disadvantaged by its import. Tariffs are meant to protect local industries; he wants to use them to generate revenue instead. Because of the high cost of production in America and the dismal state of its supply chains, his logic of using them to rejuvenate or bring back industries in America will remain a pipedream. And the measure is certainly going to fan inflation and cause hardships for the poor.

Universities and R&D institutions will have difficulty finding or keeping talents to keep them at the top. Chinese and Indians account for much of America’s intellectual capital. Many top Chinese brains are already suffering discriminations and injustices there. South Asians, hitherto seemed “favoured” (Look at their dominance in the Fortune 500 list!), will soon find their skin colour a liability. We all know how this policy will certainly weaken America’s prowess in science and technology.  

Americans account for 4.2% of the world population, yet it represents about 26% of the global economy (in nominal terms, but about 15.5% in PPP terms). Its share of the world’s total export trade is about 8.5% (2022). 60% of the world trade is still conducted in US Dollars.

However, this is changing fast. China’s economy in PPP terms is already 19% and many countries are now turning their face away from the US Dollar to settle trades if situations allow. The tariffs and the availability of options in trade settlements are likely to shrink the dollar’s dominance.

Now that Trump's stances are clear for the world to see, allies are also scrambling to find new bearings. European countries are particularly vulnerable. There is a great leadership void there. Few are wise or strong politically, several are outright deep-well frogs. [ii] This time around, America will have hardly any amongst them. And NATO may be a big casualty on this front, with this, the wellness of America’s military-industrial complex will take a big hit too, impacting on the economy as a whole.

Have the cake and eat it too
With the level of the national debt that America is having and his shouts that he wants to reduce taxes further, Trump will have to find money to fund the country’s fiscal needs. The Treasury will certainly have to borrow more. Fewer countries are likely happy to leave their money with the Americans; more will have to come from within – their own corporations. Instead of having to pay taxes, they earn interest incomes from Uncle Sam instead. Not a bad proposition at all! The multiplier effect of (a) a better spread between return on assets and cost of capital, and (b) sky-high price-earnings ratio commanded in stock markets, makes them laugh all the way to the bank. This is essentially the brand of American capitalism that the rich in America are too intoxicated to give up.

America has so many military bases around the world and Trump wants allies to pay. But the shine of America’s armour is wearing off fast. Who is happy to foot America’s bills when it is no longer capable of offering real protection? If Japan and South Korea were given the opportunity, would they want American soldiers on their soils? The only leader that needs America today is perhaps Ferdinand Marcos Junior, not because of his country’s needs but because of his fear of losing the billions that his late father has stashed away in America.  

Xi’s Taichi Preparedness

Xi knew an earthquake would soon be creating havoc on the world. He has long prepared China for this eventuality.

Militarily, China is unassailable in the West Pacific and South China Sea. Its DF missiles, warships, drones and unmanned craft and robotic hounds are too advanced for the Americans to match, not to mention its electronic warfare capability. And it is already working on the 6^th generation war planes.

Internally, its social-economic structure is being aligned drastically. Transitional pains are often being cited as examples of “China about to collapse” narratives or assertions by the Western and pro-West media. High quality growth is now being demanded in every aspect of the economy. Their products are setting standards rather than playing catchups in the world – EVs, 6G, Quantum computing, AI etc. There is only one last hurdle to clear: semiconductor foundries.

On the infrastructure and energy fronts, China is acting like as if there is no tomorrow – 50,000 km of highspeed rails, renewable energy installations in the most remote and unthought of places like deserts, mountains and mud lands.

As for the outer spaces, its Beidou navigation system and space programmes will soon be the standard setters of the day.

No country can replicate the type of supply chains that China has built up. Even industries thought to be in the sunset stage are being revitalized to take on the world; a case in point is on the textile front, where continuous R&D has allowed Chinese producers to keep coming up with new materials to clothe the world.

Internally, it is preparing its people for a better life – more money to consume, hence a higher GDP.  (Some economists are fast to seize China’s apparent deflation during the last couple of months to support their China-is-collapsing theory, as if inflation is a must for growth to happen. They prescribe cheap credit as a solution. I find this argument lacks common sense. Capital must always have a cost, lest it is vulnerable to abuse like what you see in Japan and other low-interest rate regime economies. Mild deflation from time to time is, to me, good for people.)

Blinken & Co has always cited human rights as one of their reasons for sanctioning China. They talked as if the minorities in China, particularly the Uighurs, are being subjected to all sorts of sub-human treatments. In September last year, my wife and I followed an Australian tour group and spent 28 days in Xinjiang. Our fellow travelers are mostly White Australians, English or New Zealanders. Some were keen to see if they could find detention camps or traces of suppressions. Instead, they saw complete freedom in the lives of these minorities. (It is good that China is allowing visa-free entries to most countries now.)

In short, Xi has prepared China for total sufficiency in these four basic needs: 衣食住行 (yī shí zhù xíng – clothing, food, housing and transport). China does not believe in allowing its people to make wild fortunes in education and healthcare. The state ensures quality and low cost in both. Entrepreneurs are free to make money, but they must not forget the need for them to act responsibly socially. The whole system sounds too utopian to be true, but it is happening there. Yes, we still have many crooked Chinese, but most of them have gone abroad to scam. (Recently we are inundated with clips waning about these scammers in Thailand and Myanmar. What a bad name they are giving to us!) But China itself remains one of the safest countries for one to visit.

Love thy neighbours 

For many years after its launch, Xi’s Road & Belt initiative (BRI) was scoffed at as debt traps by skeptics. Few can say that now. The initiatives have benefited countries in Central Asia, Southeast Asia, Africa and South America. Their leaders are accorded full diplomatic protocol, including being personally received by Xi himself, when they visit China.

Americans’ support of a regime that is practicing genocide in Gaza and the Trump’s lunacy will push China loathers to ponder a little. More countries are happy to join BRICS and SCO, where China is a key driver. (One exception being India’s Narendra Modi who seems to be building an India that manifests its people with a “I can do better” complex against China.)

And serious scholars are no longer shy to praise China. Kishore has been one of the earliest to see China’s rise as a good thing for the world to have. Jeffrey Sachs is another early champion of China’s causes. We often see George Yeo doing that now. There are many others, notably Hugh White of Australia and several in Europe and even India. Several scholars in Taiwan have become the most effective spokespersons for China; they knowledge is impressive and their arguments extremely convincing. Wiser Leaders like former Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong also knows China is on the right side of history, but he has to couch his advice with diplomatic niceties. Ditto Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim. Another new hope is Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba, who understands the need to cultivate good neighbourhood.

Some still cannot run without blinkers 

Regardless of how they are treated by Trump, some will continue to want to lick his boot. I find the strangest of all is Mongolia’s President Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh. Mongolia is landlocked between Russia in the north and China in the south, yet he is cosying up to the US to establish all sorts of “strategic” relations. He must have thought that America could help him dig an underground canal to connect the country to the Sea of Japan!

But long can they remain stupid?

The New Order

The US will become a has-been like the UK, albeit still suffering from world power delusions. NATO will become irrelevant; Germany and France will have to bite the bullet and depend on Russia for natural gas to power their homes and industries. The UK will probably do better, thanks to tourism.

The government of China, long misrepresented by the West and pro-West media and hated by the fake free world champions, can now walk tall. As people are better informed and have a source to compare or look up, they will vote in better leaders. China is certainly a role model for many, though total adoption of its systems is out of question.

Japan will be sucking up to China. South Korea and North Korea will try to accommodate each other again.

India will always be India – always trying to tell the world that they can do whatever China does, and better.

As for the rest of the decent world in Africa, Central Asia and Latin America, a period of prosperity will be upon them, thanks to China Belt & Road Initiative and other programmes, Southeast, Central and West Asia, Africa and the Latin America will see better times. (Not much hope can be placed in some parts of West Asia though.)

The UN will be welcomed back to solve disputes. Fake currencies will have to disappear, and a new “Bretton Wood” may also have to return to replace the IMF, so on and so forth; all for the betterment of the world. `

Might A New Trump Emerge Instead?

Trump is not a hardcore ideologue. The next four years of his presidency might turn out differently.

China for the past couple of months has been showing off its wares in the arsenal – the new deadly DF missiles and the stuff at the Zhuhai Airshow. Two new vessels have also been spotted: the 075 amphibious assault ship and the 076 drone carrier. And the most awesome of all: prototypes of what are believed to be the 6^th generation fighter and bomber.

And with what he has seen for himself in Boeing and the Pentagon, he might have come to conclude that China can no longer be subdued militarily. And he might decide it is time for him to work with China to claim a “stateman” halo in history.

Looking at Trump’s line-up to run his administration, one may fear the return of Pompeo-ism. But I have a more optimistic read. Trump is not the type to allow people like Marco Rubio to run his foreign policy or Peter Navaro to have a free hand to deal with China on trade issues. He will call the shots, good or bad. His honeymoon with Elon Musk may also not last long, even though I believe Musk will serve as a useful bridge between China and the US.

Trump has also spoken to Xi over the phone. His tone appeared to be more measured. He was even talking about working with China to do good for the world, or something to that effect.

Might he become a born-again something?

Regardless, the dà biàn jú is bound to happen.

Let us keep our fingers crossed.

 

 

 

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[i] A term used to describe a highly probable, high impact, yet neglected threat. The risk is evident, and the event is foreseeable.

[ii] Examples are Finland’s, Sweden’s, Lithuania’s and many top and second-tier leaders s in Germany, France, and Czechia; exceptions are Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.