Lately, this line “百年未有之大变局 (Bǎi Nián Wèi Yǒu Zhī Dà Biàn Jú)” had often been on Chinese President Xi Jinping’s lips when he made policy speeches or formally received foreign heads of states or governments. He is alluding to an upheaval he sees on the horizon, and he is urging the world to take note and prepare for it.
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| Crisis = Danger/Opportunity |
I do not suppose
he means “one hundred years” exactly, for there is no historical evidence to
show that world shattering events have been occurring on a hundred-year cycle.
World War I ended in 1918, and World War II began in 1939 – in less than 20
years. China overthrew the Manchus in 1911, and it went through a tumultuous
time until the People’s Republic of China was proclaimed in 1949. Great
Depression devastated the Americans in the early 1930s. The first Oil Crisis occurred
in 1973. I do not see any discernable
pattern.
Back to the subject.
I believe Xi is convinced that this dà biàn jú (大变局) will happen during Trump’s presidency and the new world order that will emerge is not going to be a bad thing – provided the world is preparing for it, like what China has already done.
Many scholars think that the present stare-down between China and the US fits well with the Thucydides’ Trap situation described by Graham Allison in his 2017 book. But China is not a Sparta, for it has no desire to challenge the “Athens” of the day, i.e., the US. However, if this “hundred-year” upheaval does happen, its impact on the world is going to be more profound than any past event. And ironically, the root of this change is China’s peaceful rise and the determination by an incumbent global hegemon to clobber it down.
I see the grey rhino started to grow during Barack Obama’s tenure – in November 2011 when he shifted his foreign policy to pivot to Asia. At home, he was frustrated by the country’s neo-Cons in several of the policies he was trying to implement at home. China was rising and this was an easier sell. Building relationships with China’s neighbours to counter its rise became a policy priority. Xi Jinping took office in 2012; it was clear that he would transform China. But Obama is an intellectual and not someone who would hit you below the belt. His approach was measured; he did not stir up any hornets’ nest. As the Vice President, Joe Biden was largely overshadowed, and we did not get to hear much of his stance on China. But what a savage beast he is!
Donald Trump narrowly won the 2017 election. Hillary Clinton was too “mainstream”; Trump’s unconventionality represented a fresh hope, even though his character was an issue, let alone of the fact that he was hardly “Republican” in ideology. He visited China in November 2017 and what he saw in China must have shocked him to the core. Guided by his businessman instinct, he wanted China to pay for its success and lost no time – in January 2018 – to fire his first tariff salvo. Many more followed. Rounds of negotiations took place and both sides did reach some compromises – until COVID-19 struck. Trump’s inept handling of the pandemic cost him the presidency. He blamed China! (By then anti-China sentiment had already spread like wildfires across the US and indeed many parts of the world, thanks also to the riots in Hong Kong, which Western and pro-West media portrayed China as the villain, when it was clearly a CIA act.) And Tsai Ing-wen was welcoming all and sundry from the US to poison the China-US relationship further.
Trump was in a sorry state when Biden assumed the presidency. Everyone had deserted him. Biden had a chance to rejuvenate the country if he had chosen to work with China; instead, he went on not only to outdo Trump in trade matters, but to do everything possible to retard China. He was so consumed that he had totally neglected the life of the average Joe in America. And ironically, the person who would succeed him is his predecessor and a convicted felon for that matter.
Biden succeeded in rounding up the leaders of much of Western world, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines and even a supposedly non-aligned India to be his blood brothers to his cause. Alliances – AUKUS, Five Eyes and what-have-you, were struck. But he and his team were clumsy; their narratives too make-believe and no sooner, audiences turned incredulous. Their roles in the Ukraine war and Gaza war showed the US’s true colours.
China’s continuous ascendence and ability to surpass (as a matter of course, not design) any country economically and technologically is just inevitable. Its human capital is simply too formidable both in breadth and depth. Its cultural ethos is different from the rest of the world. The West think they are holier than thou, China accepts everyone as equal. Samuel Huntington uses the term “clash of civilisations” to describe outcomes from differences like this, but I would argue that it is not a clash, but a unilateral attempt by a bully to eliminate a perceived threat from a brilliant, helpful and harmless newcomer. In China, if you do not seek to impose your values or religion on others, the state will not bother you. It does not patronize others and says its ways of governing and building social order are superior to any country.
Several old civilisations have survived, but none has written records of their history the way the Chinese have been keeping them – continuously for three thousand years! The country has gone through civil wars, been ruled by minorities (twice for long periods – Yuan and Qing) and suffered humiliations from foreign powers as recent as the 1800s. It has finally reemerged and when it was clear that it was about to regain its place in the world then the US began to wield its sledgehammer to stop its rise. Xi knows his history well; he knows that because of US’s intolerance, a great change unseen for a long time is about to happen to China and with great ramifications to the world. And he is telling his compatriots and urging the world to prepare for a great geopolitical quake.
If Taiwan is not a factor in this equation, China would have nothing to fear the Americans, come what may. China sees the bringing back of Taiwan to its fold as a sacred mission and is non-negotiable. Unfortunately, many Taiwanese have been so indoctrinated – by the legacy of the Japanese rule and the lure of Pax Americana – that they do not want Taiwan to be a part of China. Many still think the latter is a communist state. Forget about the cultural roots stuff; the separatists have no emotional attachment to it.
DPP’s hardline stance is a godsend opportunity for the US. Its leaders are so willing for Taiwan to serve as pawns for America to irritate China. Personally, Trump was quite ambivalent about Taiwan, but he allowed his key staff to run wild – Mike Pompeo (aided by his sidekick Yu Maochun), John Bolton, Nikii Haley, etc.
China has therefore to arm itself to the teeth – to deter US interference in the event that they have to take back Taiwan by force, which appears to be the only route that they can take now. Unfortunately, this also causes the neighbouring countries to be weary of China, despite what history has shown them.
Between Trump and Biden, Who is Prettier?
Despite being a convicted felon, Trump will be sworn in as the 47th President of the United States of America on January 20.
Trump is well known for his unscrupulousness, even to his close family members. He is a poker player; he will raise his stake sky-high even though he has had no cards. I would describe him as a diarrhoea patient, who will soil everywhere and leave to others to clean up his mess.
Many analysts have predicted that he will usher the world into the most uncharted territory in modern history. Even before he takes office, he has already humiliated Justin Trudeau by suggesting that Canada, which is perhaps America’s closest ally, should join the US as its 51st state. He also wants to take back the Panama Canal and proposes to buy Greenland from Denmark. Such kuáng yán (狂言(mad talks) are not said out of jest, but with a degree of seriousness that even shocks America’s closest allies, save Israel. The message is clear, nobody, no matter how subservient you are to the US, will be spared if he wants to rape you!
(Trump reminds me of a real-estate billionaire I chanced upon to know when I was living in Sydney in the early 2000s. He is Harry Triguboff, a Jew born in Shanghai. Hearing that we were trying to sell a boutique hotel in one of the most coveted bays in Sydney, through an intermediary, he loudly offered A$40 million. When I finally met up with him, he sneeringly said to my face: Lousy property; A$20 million, take it or leave it!
Trump’s way is just like that, shouting up a threat but only to withdraw it without feeling any awkwardness if he is proven wrong. Didn’t he say he would end the Ukraine war within 24 hours? What does he say now? Ditto his Canada, Greenland and Panama mad talks. To me, they were made just to project his imperial pretensions, nothing more than that.)
The leaders – in EU and elsewhere – whom Biden has rallied to the US’s corner are likely to be flushed down Trump’s WC. You have already seen Trump’s deep dislikes for queen bees like Nancy Pelosi; Ursula von der Leyen will certainly be amongst his first victims in this category. Sissies like Trudeau are also not his cup of tea. (And this backboneless sissy is quick to move aside.) Pseudo saints like Narendra Modi and leaders cloaked in religious robes are also going to be no-no to him. Only machos like Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un will be treated with great respect. And I suspect leaders like Marcos Jr and Lai Ching-te will be known just as “who’s that fellow?” when he has to make references about them. Even Japan and Korea; they mean little to him.
Despite his “China, China, China” finger-pointing menace, he knows he cannot raise his voice against Xi Jinping. But this inferiority complex is like a sword that cuts both ways.
Trump’s trade war against China was a failure by any count. Under normal circumstances, this “luàn lái” (乱来, absolutely reckless) man would certainly become another ex-President. Fortunately for him, his successor Biden, instead of cashing on Trump’s silliness and working with China to nurture a sick America to shape, got himself totally consumed by taking every possible measure to retard China. He messed up the country and gave Trump an easy win over his anointed successor Kamala Harris. Much credit of Biden’s downfall should be given to his harebrained team – Antony Blinken, Janet Yellen, Llyod Austin, Gina Raimondo, Katherine Tai, and Nicholas Burns. Burns was only the US’s ambassador to China, but this nincompoop deserves my special citation for a simple reason: Instead of advising Biden and his team what was truly happening in China, he fed stuff that they loved to hear so that they could demonize and further sanction China. (He was probably watching CNN all the time.)
Biden has only a few days left in the Oval Office, yet this sicko is still furiously and viciously sanctioning China. Don’t Americans understand Economics 101? If you impoverish China, you also kill a market that no other country can replace? No wonder Nvidia’s Jensen Huang is hopping mad! And in his farewell speech, he was so shameless as to claim that, thanks to his presidency, America had won against China and China could never surpass America! An old fool indeed.
Kishore Mahbubani tends to describe the situation that China and the US are having now as a race, as if there should be a winner at the end of the day. I beg to disagree with this thinker even though I salute him for his championship of China’s causes. China’s national mission is not to beat the Americans; it just wants its people to have a better tomorrow. Winning is not a be-all-and-end-all pursuit; continuous self-improvement is. “Admiral” Zheng-he gave the Ming rulers the impression that there was no longer any need for them to set sail after several voyages, since China was well ahead of the world as far as they knew. But within a hundred years, China lost its superiority in maritime skills. Qing’s Emperor Qian Loong told off George Macartney. We all know the result. There is simply no room for complacency.
The term Mission in American leadership’s minds tends to be anchored on misplaced beliefs. Biden’s mission was to contain China’s rise at all costs. But the horse has already bolted, and the only tool left in his kit is America’s shaky might in the semiconductor industry. But China’s no France or Japan (remember Alstrom and Toshiba?); its resilience was astonishing, despite sanctions after sanction. It is going to prove to be an un-accomplishable mission, but much harm has already been caused the world because of US actions – killing collaborations and stalling innovations, amongst others.
Unfortunately, the knight that Trump created to address trade imbalances between the US and China had been fed steroid by Biden and is now a Frankenstein that will destroy America instead. Sinophobia has totally gripped the US today. Even its Supreme Court judges are not spared. They have just handed down a 9-0 decision to uphold the “sell-or-be-banned” on TikTok – all in the name of protecting America’s national security. But America’s young are not buying this paranoia anymore; they are flocking to Xiaohongshu (小红书, the Little Red Book) and call themselves “refugees”.
The Seismic Shift Will Accelerate
Never mind about the existing social ills facing the country – gun violence, infrastructure in dire needs of rejuvenation, rich-poor and race divides – and the general ignorance of lesser Americans. Trump is a white supremacist through and through. He will keep his word on closing the borders and expelling the illegals. Where is he going to get the blue-collar workers to man the factories, he wants Americans to bring back or build?
His tariff weapons will be used – both against friends and foes – on anything if he thinks America is being disadvantaged by its import. Tariffs are meant to protect local industries; he wants to use them to generate revenue instead. Because of the high cost of production in America and the dismal state of its supply chains, his logic of using them to rejuvenate or bring back industries in America will remain a pipedream. And the measure is certainly going to fan inflation and cause hardships for the poor.
Universities and R&D institutions will have difficulty finding or keeping talents to keep them at the top. Chinese and Indians account for much of America’s intellectual capital. Many top Chinese brains are already suffering discriminations and injustices there. South Asians, hitherto seemed “favoured” (Look at their dominance in the Fortune 500 list!), will soon find their skin colour a liability. We all know how this policy will certainly weaken America’s prowess in science and technology.
Americans account for 4.2% of the world population, yet it represents about 26% of the global economy (in nominal terms, but about 15.5% in PPP terms). Its share of the world’s total export trade is about 8.5% (2022). 60% of the world trade is still conducted in US Dollars.
However, this is changing fast. China’s economy in PPP terms is already 19% and many countries are now turning their face away from the US Dollar to settle trades if situations allow. The tariffs and the availability of options in trade settlements are likely to shrink the dollar’s dominance.
Now that Trump's stances are clear for the world to see, allies are also scrambling to find new bearings. European countries are particularly vulnerable. There is a great leadership void there. Few are wise or strong politically, several are outright deep-well frogs. [ii] This time around, America will have hardly any amongst them. And NATO may be a big casualty on this front, with this, the wellness of America’s military-industrial complex will take a big hit too, impacting on the economy as a whole.
With the level of the national debt that America is having and his shouts that he wants to reduce taxes further, Trump will have to find money to fund the country’s fiscal needs. The Treasury will certainly have to borrow more. Fewer countries are likely happy to leave their money with the Americans; more will have to come from within – their own corporations. Instead of having to pay taxes, they earn interest incomes from Uncle Sam instead. Not a bad proposition at all! The multiplier effect of (a) a better spread between return on assets and cost of capital, and (b) sky-high price-earnings ratio commanded in stock markets, makes them laugh all the way to the bank. This is essentially the brand of American capitalism that the rich in America are too intoxicated to give up.
America has so many military bases around the world and Trump wants allies to pay. But the shine of America’s armour is wearing off fast. Who is happy to foot America’s bills when it is no longer capable of offering real protection? If Japan and South Korea were given the opportunity, would they want American soldiers on their soils? The only leader that needs America today is perhaps Ferdinand Marcos Junior, not because of his country’s needs but because of his fear of losing the billions that his late father has stashed away in America.
Xi’s Taichi Preparedness
Militarily, China is unassailable in the West Pacific and South China Sea. Its DF missiles, warships, drones and unmanned craft and robotic hounds are too advanced for the Americans to match, not to mention its electronic warfare capability. And it is already working on the 6th generation war planes.
Internally, its social-economic structure is being aligned drastically. Transitional pains are often being cited as examples of “China about to collapse” narratives or assertions by the Western and pro-West media. High quality growth is now being demanded in every aspect of the economy. Their products are setting standards rather than playing catchups in the world – EVs, 6G, Quantum computing, AI etc. There is only one last hurdle to clear: semiconductor foundries.
On the infrastructure and energy fronts, China is acting like as if there is no tomorrow – 50,000 km of highspeed rails, renewable energy installations in the most remote and unthought of places like deserts, mountains and mud lands.
As for the outer spaces, its Beidou navigation system and space programmes will soon be the standard setters of the day.
No country can replicate the type of supply chains that China has built up. Even industries thought to be in the sunset stage are being revitalized to take on the world; a case in point is on the textile front, where continuous R&D has allowed Chinese producers to keep coming up with new materials to clothe the world.
Internally, it is preparing its people for a better life – more money to consume, hence a higher GDP. (Some economists are fast to seize China’s apparent deflation during the last couple of months to support their China-is-collapsing theory, as if inflation is a must for growth to happen. They prescribe cheap credit as a solution. I find this argument lacks common sense. Capital must always have a cost, lest it is vulnerable to abuse like what you see in Japan and other low-interest rate regime economies. Mild deflation from time to time is, to me, good for people.)
Blinken & Co has always cited human rights as one of their reasons for sanctioning China. They talked as if the minorities in China, particularly the Uighurs, are being subjected to all sorts of sub-human treatments. In September last year, my wife and I followed an Australian tour group and spent 28 days in Xinjiang. Our fellow travelers are mostly White Australians, English or New Zealanders. Some were keen to see if they could find detention camps or traces of suppressions. Instead, they saw complete freedom in the lives of these minorities. (It is good that China is allowing visa-free entries to most countries now.)
In short, Xi has prepared China for total sufficiency in these four basic needs: 衣食住行 (yī shí zhù xíng – clothing, food, housing and transport). China does not believe in allowing its people to make wild fortunes in education and healthcare. The state ensures quality and low cost in both. Entrepreneurs are free to make money, but they must not forget the need for them to act responsibly socially. The whole system sounds too utopian to be true, but it is happening there. Yes, we still have many crooked Chinese, but most of them have gone abroad to scam. (Recently we are inundated with clips waning about these scammers in Thailand and Myanmar. What a bad name they are giving to us!) But China itself remains one of the safest countries for one to visit.
Love thy neighbours
Americans’ support of a regime that is practicing genocide in Gaza and the Trump’s lunacy will push China loathers to ponder a little. More countries are happy to join BRICS and SCO, where China is a key driver. (One exception being India’s Narendra Modi who seems to be building an India that manifests its people with a “I can do better” complex against China.)
And serious scholars are no longer shy to praise China. Kishore has been one of the earliest to see China’s rise as a good thing for the world to have. Jeffrey Sachs is another early champion of China’s causes. We often see George Yeo doing that now. There are many others, notably Hugh White of Australia and several in Europe and even India. Several scholars in Taiwan have become the most effective spokespersons for China; they knowledge is impressive and their arguments extremely convincing. Wiser Leaders like former Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong also knows China is on the right side of history, but he has to couch his advice with diplomatic niceties. Ditto Malaysia’s Anwar Ibrahim. Another new hope is Japan’s Shigeru Ishiba, who understands the need to cultivate good neighbourhood.
Some still cannot run without blinkers
But long can they remain stupid?
The New Order
The government of China, long misrepresented by the West and pro-West media and hated by the fake free world champions, can now walk tall. As people are better informed and have a source to compare or look up, they will vote in better leaders. China is certainly a role model for many, though total adoption of its systems is out of question.
Japan will be sucking up to China. South Korea and North Korea will try to accommodate each other again.
India will always be India – always trying to tell the world that they can do whatever China does, and better.
As for the rest of the decent world in Africa, Central Asia and Latin America, a period of prosperity will be upon them, thanks to China Belt & Road Initiative and other programmes, Southeast, Central and West Asia, Africa and the Latin America will see better times. (Not much hope can be placed in some parts of West Asia though.)
The UN will be welcomed back to solve disputes. Fake currencies will have to disappear, and a new “Bretton Wood” may also have to return to replace the IMF, so on and so forth; all for the betterment of the world. `
Might A New Trump Emerge Instead?
China for the past couple of months has been showing off its wares in the arsenal – the new deadly DF missiles and the stuff at the Zhuhai Airshow. Two new vessels have also been spotted: the 075 amphibious assault ship and the 076 drone carrier. And the most awesome of all: prototypes of what are believed to be the 6th generation fighter and bomber.
And with what he has seen for himself in Boeing and the Pentagon, he might have come to conclude that China can no longer be subdued militarily. And he might decide it is time for him to work with China to claim a “stateman” halo in history.
Looking at Trump’s line-up to run his administration, one may fear the return of Pompeo-ism. But I have a more optimistic read. Trump is not the type to allow people like Marco Rubio to run his foreign policy or Peter Navaro to have a free hand to deal with China on trade issues. He will call the shots, good or bad. His honeymoon with Elon Musk may also not last long, even though I believe Musk will serve as a useful bridge between China and the US.
Trump has also spoken to Xi over the phone. His tone appeared to be more measured. He was even talking about working with China to do good for the world, or something to that effect.
Might he become a born-again something?
Regardless, the dà biàn jú is bound to happen.
Let us keep our fingers crossed.
[i] A term used to describe a highly
probable, high impact, yet neglected threat. The risk is evident, and the event
is foreseeable.
[ii]
Examples are Finland’s, Sweden’s, Lithuania’s and many top and second-tier
leaders s in Germany, France, and Czechia; exceptions are Hungarian Prime
Minister Viktor Orbán and Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić.
