CHINA’S MILITARY READINESS BY 2030

What it means to the world…

As a keen watcher of geopolitics, albeit an amateurish one, I am fully convinced that by 2030 China’s pre-eminence in the world will be acknowledged beyond doubt. The US will retreat to its cocoon. Russia will stand tall in Europe, which has to reconcile itself to being largely a “no body” in global scene. The Global South countries will join BRICS en masse to stay afloat.

         First and foremost, Taiwan has finally become a part of China – not as a SAR, but a province of China. It has few obstacles to keep scaling new heights – socially, economically, and technologically. Of course, it has also to be the top dog militarily lest the West try to bring it down again, just like what they did to the Qing dynasty in the 19^th century.

         Trump 2.0 will wreck the US economy to such an extent that even if there is a good new president taking office in 2029, the US will have already lost its momentum; it will not be able to surpass China for a long time even if they resolve to do so. The principal reason is that it does not have the Chinese talent pool anymore.

         Be that as it may, the US will remain its biggest threat for the next couple of years. Fortunately, it has largely cemented its base, even though there are still a few aspects, especially in chip-making foundries, that they must master.

         As I have said from the very outset, to deter the Americans, China must be powerful than America militarily. Let me try to take stock of what they have now.

Nuclear Deterrents
China successfully tested its first atomic bomb on October 16, 1964, launched its first nuclear missile on October 27, 1966, and detonated its first hydrogen bomb on June 17, 1967.

        In terms of nuclear warheads, the US and Russia may have more in numbers, but this is not an undisputed advantage, for no country would dare to do a first strike, except North Korea maybe. The world will be largely destroyed if nuclear bombs are used by the US, Russia or China. And in terms of delivery and interception systems, China’s is now the most formidable.

        China’s Rocket Force controls its arsenal of land-based ballistic, hypersonic, cruise missiles – both nuclear and conventional. China is said to have the largest land-based missile arsenal in the world – 400 ground-launched cruise missiles, 900 conventional short-range ballistic missiles, 1,300 conventional medium-range ballistic missiles, 500 conventional intermediate-range ballistic missiles, as well as 400 intercontinental ballistic missiles.

         Many of these are extremely accurate, which would allow them to destroy targets even without nuclear warheads. America says that China has a stockpile of approximately 600 nuclear warheads. I believe the number is growing by the day.

         It introduced DF (Dongfeng 东风)-1, DF-2 and DF-3 in the 1960s. They were respectively short-range, medium-range and intermediate-range ballistic missiles. In the 1970s, they had DF-4 which is a limited-range ICBM. In the 1980s, it was their DF-5 full-range ICBM.

         A series of newer DFs followed, most notably is its DF-21 which is a two-stage, solid-fuel MRBM. The missile carries a single 500 KT nuclear warhead, with up to 2,500 km range. It served as the basis for the submarine-launched ballistic missile used on its Xia [夏] class Type 092 nuclear-powered submarines. Saudi Arabia is believed to have bought a DF-21 in 2007.

        The latest variant, the DF-21D, has a maximum range exceeding 1,450 kilometres. It is the world's first anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM), capable of targeting a moving carrier strike group from long-range, land-based mobile launchers.

        In addition to the development of a sea-based nuclear force, China has also developed tactical nuclear weapons. Its Air Force are certainly capable of delivering nuclear bombs.

        It was during the 1999 when the US bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade that China saw the need to develop precision missiles and accelerate plans to expand its conventional missile forces.

        The DF-26C is an IRBM with a range of at least 5,000 km, far enough to reach U.S. naval bases in Guam. Few details are known, but it is believed to be solid-fuelled and road-mobile, allowing it to be stored in underground bunkers and fired at short notice, hence difficult to counter. Possible warheads include conventional, nuclear or even manoeuvrable anti-ship and hypersonic glide warheads.

        The DF-27 is a deadly intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) equipped with a hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) warhead developed in 2021. It has a range of 5,000 km to 8,000 km.

        The DF-31 is China's newest road-mobile, solid-fuel ICBM which has a range of 8,000+ km, and can carry a single 1,000 KT warhead, or up to three 20-150 KT MIRV warheads. An improved version, the DF-31A, has range of 11,000+ km, far enough to reach Los Angeles from Beijing. It made its first official public appearance in the 2017 PLA Day Parade.

        The DF-41, capable of being armed with ten or twelve MIRV warheads, is China's newest addition to its nuclear arsenal. With an estimated range between 12,000-15,000 km, it is believed to surpass the range of the US's LGM-30 Minuteman ICBM to become the world's longest-range missile.

        On 9 January 2014, China’s DF-ZF hypersonic glide vehicle (HGV) made its first flight test. It is believed to have a top speed of Mach 10, or 12,360 km/h. In July 2021, China is believed to have tested globe-circling hypersonic missile including the unprecedented launch of a separate 2nd missile from the ultra-high-speed vehicle. Neither the United States nor Russia has demonstrated the same ability, which requires launching a missile from a parent vehicle traveling five times the speed of sound.

        On 25 September 2024, China performed its first intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test over the Pacific Ocean. The specific ICBM that was launched was not stated.

Conventional Strike Ranges as of 2022

 

Nuclear Ballistic Missile Strike Ranges as of 2022

Air Power
J[歼]-5, China’s first fighter jet made its debut in 1956. It was modelled along the Soviet MiG-17. It flew J-20 in 2019 and unveiled J-35 last year, both stealth fighters. (However, its J-10 and J-16 are still in service.) The US is the only country that has two types of stealth fighters – F-22 and F-35. Now that two new types of aircraft – believed to be the forerunners of the 6^th generation fighters – have been spotted in the skies of Chengdu and Shenyang, the US is feverishly talking about developing their F-47 – to humour Donald Trump (him being the 47^th president of the US. He says it is a beautiful number!) (Last month, SCMP also reported that Chinese scientists had successfully simulated conditions for the development of the world's first jet fuel-powered engine for Mach 16 (20,000 k,/h) flight, marking a potential game-changer in hypersonic propulsion that could redefine the limits of air and space travel.)

        By 2030, China’s 6^th generation aircraft will terrify the US.

 

Naval Power
China's shipbuilding capacity is now 230 times larger than the United States. (Some sources say it is more than 300 times!) Its shipyards accounting for more than 50% of global merchant tonnage production. Several of their shipyards can also produce naval vessels at will. Trump is now trying to address this shipbuilding gap, but it is going to be a lost cause.

        The U.S. Navy's newest battleship is its USS Zumwalt – a 15,000-tonne destroyer launched in 2013. Its newest aircraft carrier is USS Gerald R. Ford-class commissioned in 2017. A second ship of the class, to be called John F Kennedy, is scheduled to enter service in 2025. But do you see it doing sea trials?

        China’s 3^rd aircraft carrier Fujian is currently undergoing intensive and extensive sea trials. The 4^th aircraft carrier, believed to be nuclear-powered, is also being constructed.

        It has already launched its 40,000 tonne 076 amphibious assault ship Sichuan which can also double as a small aircraft carrier containing unmanned aerial vehicles, as it is equipped with a launching system featuring an electromagnetic catapult like that of the newest aircraft carrier, the Fujian.

        However, it is its Type 055 destroyer that most other navies fear most. Type 055 is a class of stealth guided-missile destroyer that is capable of multi-missions – the combination of sensors and weapons that can provide a main role in area air defence and anti-submarine capabilities.

        The first batch of 8 vessels was designed between 2014 to 2018, and all were in service by the end of 2022. A second batch of 8 is being constructed at Dalian and Jiangnan. It is principally powered by four 28 MW (38,000 hp) turbines. The ship contains navigation radars, various communication and intelligence systems, electronic warfare support measures, electronic countermeasures, electro-optical sensors, laser-warning systems, optronic jammers, and datalink systems. A deployment port exists for variable depths and towed array sonar. The large bulbous bow likely also contains a bow sonar.

        It has 112 vertical launching system cells – 64 cells forward and 48 cells aft – to fire surface-to-air missiles, anti-ship ballistic and cruise missiles, land-attack cruise missiles and anti-submarine torpedoes, besides the guns and close-in weapon systems. There is hangar space for two helicopters.

        China has a battle force of approximately 370 surface ships and submarines versus the US’s 300 or so. However, in terms of tonnage, China still lags behind the US (2 million versus 4.5 million tonnes). China will surely overtake the US in terms of naval tonnage by 2030.

        China has a fleet of more than 60 nuclear and conventionally powered boats. Its most powerful nuclear submarine is the Type 094 (Jin [晉]-class) ballistic missile submarine, capable of carrying 12 JL-2 missiles with a range of 7,200 km. It is China's latest and largest strategic submarine and is nuclear-powered.

        These submarines are powered by nuclear reactors, allowing for extended periods at sea and silent operation. The Type 094A is an improved variant of the Type 094, with upgrades in stealth, hydrodynamics, and overall performance. 

        China is also developing the Type 096 Tang [唐]-classsubmarine, claimed to be able to carry up to 24 JL-3 ballistic missiles each. It should be operational in this decade.

        Just days ago, it has also unveiled a powerful deep-sea cable cutter capable of severing the world’s most fortified underwater communication or power lines. The tool can cut cables at depths of up to 4,000 metres – twice the maximum operational range of existing subsea communication infrastructure – and has been designed specifically for integration with China’s advanced crewed and uncrewed submersibles.

Electronic Warfare, Surveillance and Air Defence
Chinese researchers have also made significant breakthrough in electronic warfare technology, asserting that adversaries will find themselves exposed on the battlefield with no place to conceal. A team based in Beijing has successfully devised a method for continuous, broad bandwidth, real-time monitoring and analysis of the electromagnetic spectrum, which effectively unveils enemy forces during conflicts.

        Last July, the South China Morning Post shed light on a December 2023 incident between a US EA-18 Growler carrier-based EW (electronic warfare) aircraft and China’s Type 055 cruiser Nanchang in the contested South China Sea. Apparently, the US aircraft was “jammed” by the Nanchang cruiser.

        It is believed that the US and its allies have also faced similar situations in the South China Sea in recent months.

        China has reportedly developed a new radar technology that can detect and track stealth aircraft, including the F-22 Raptor, by utilizing signals from its BeiDou navigation satellite system, offering a cost-effective and stealthy alternative to traditional radar systems. China has also reportedly deployed a new Large Phased Array Radar (LPAR) in Yunnan Province, enhancing its ballistic missile early warning capabilities and suggest China is building a counter-stealth radar system on Triton Island in the South China Sea. 

        In January, a PLA video showed a “strategic, active phased-array radar” that could detect missile threats within “a few thousand kilometres” – something at the forefront of the country’s anti-missile defence system. It is likely to be a system that will be used to detect hypersonic missiles.

Global Positioning System
All the above will not have been possible without a good own system. China’s BeiDou Navigation Satellite System (BDS; 北斗卫星导航系统 Běidǒu wèi-xīng dǎo-háng xì-tǒng)) is in its 3^rd generation now. It provides full global coverage for timing and navigation, along with the US’s GPS, Russia's GLONASS and the Europe’s Galileo. As of December 2023, 44 satellites are operational: 7 in geostationary orbits (GEO), 10 in 55° inclined geosynchronous orbits (IGSO) and 27 in Medium Earth orbits (MEO). It has reached millimetre-level accuracy.

        The original idea of a Chinese satellite navigation system was conceived in the 1980s when GPS gave the US complete advantage on the battlefield and how satellite navigation systems can be used to conduct "space warfare". In 1993, China realised the risk of denied access to GPS during the Yinhe incident [银河号事件].

        The first satellite, BeiDou-1A, was launched on 30 October 2000. In 2008 BeiDou began to offer an open service with an accuracy of 10 metres.

        (China actually joined Europe’s Galileo project in 2004 but pulled out in 2007.)

        It is now acknowledged that GPS’s capabilities are now substantially inferior to those of China’s BeiDou. BeiDou will surely set new standards in 2030!

Ground Force
So far, I have not touched much on China’s Ground Force, which is its principal fighting force. It is formidable by any standard. The need for maintaining such a huge ground force is borne out of the historical lessons that China has learned over the millennia, not out of fear of the new Xiongnu’s naval and air attacks because of Taiwan or the Philippines.

        PLA’s 1,000,000-strong ground force is a heavily mechanized force, consisting of infantry and mechanized infantry divisions, tank divisions or brigades, and a number of artillery, antichemical, air defence, engineer, signal, reconnaissance, electronic countermeasure, and logistics troops. Much robotics and AI is now infused into its operational capabilities.

China’s military command structure

On top of the chain of command is the Central Military Commission (CMC), the chairman for which is none other than Xi Jinping. The PLA is organized into five theatre commands (Eastern, Southern, Western, Northern and Central), four services (Ground Force, Navy, Air Force, and Rocket Force) and four arms (Aerospace Force, Cyberspace Force, Information Support Force, and Joint Logistics Support Force), with a dual command structure that includes political organs at each level. 

        Xi’s relentless anti-corruption drive must have cleaned up much of China’s military ecosystem. Its professionalism and patriotism are now believed to be second to none.

A Reality Check for America
All these would not have been conceivable ten years ago. Thanks to Ukraine sad state of affairs in the mid-2010s, China was able to acquire much of the country’s already very sophisticated military technology, particularly Moto Sich’s fighter engines and naval turbines. With China’s engineering resources, leap-frogging the West is just a matter of course.  

        China has already achieved a level of military preparedness that the US can never hope to win if a non-nuclear war were to break out in the western Pacific. Its “web kill” technology will ensure that much of America’s military assets will get sunk or shot down soon after they leave the 2^nd island chain. 

        Wang Yi used to say this to his Western counterparts – Let’s meet each other half-way. This form of courtesy is rooted in oriental “win-win” politeness, which the West do not buy. Theirs has always been “zero-sum” in expectations. This courtesy is useless, for leaders like Trump understand only this: Might is everything. And China has all that now.

        When US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said over Fox News on March 5 that the US is “prepared” to go to war with China, Wang Yi simply responded with Bring it on, man!

        The leaders of Japan, South Korea and the Philippines need to study history and follow real news.

What Does All This Mean to the World in 2030 and beyond?
An easy answer: Devoid of the American hegemony, the world will certainly feel safer and more equal!

        As Jeffrey Sachs has repeated advised the Western world, one, you cannot trust the American leaders and two, China is NOT (and will never be) a threat to them. 

        Sit back and relax!

End

 

Hi Zelenskyy, whither is Ukraine heading?

            The majority of Ukranians, like Russians, are East Slavic. They are cousins. How did Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who is Jewish, become the president of Ukraine in the first place?

Zelenskyy, a former entertainer (he had a degree in law, though), has been President of Ukraine since 2019. Positioning himself as an anti-establishment and anti-corruption figure in a post-Soviet, politically directionless world, he easily beat incumbent Petro Poroshenko with a landslide win of some 73% of the vote in the second round. Zelenskyy's term was supposed to end in May 2024, but the ongoing war has put paid to that timeline.

He was Joe Biden’s blue-eyed boy and hailed by the West as their bulwark against Russia’s grand design ambition on Europe. During the last US presidential election, he was foolish enough to openly endorse Biden and hence courted the wrath of Donald Trump. With Trump re-entering the White House, his days would surely be numbered.

True enough, the West’s hero was summoned to the White House on 28 February, supposedly to conclude a “deal” with Trump on Ukraine’s mineral resources, Zelenskyy was instead humiliated by Trump and his Vice President JD Vance in front of the whole world. Anyone who has any 志气 zhì qì (a melting pot of resolve, backbone and pride) would have stormed out of the room. He hanged on and was later ignominiously ushered out.

I am no fan of Zelenskyy, but I felt sad for him.

I have said enough of Trump’s obnoxiousness and do not want to again waste time bashing him here. But I could not help recalling the above scene, which happened in September 2020. I am sure this is one of the images that has remained in many people’s minds – President Aleksandar Vučić of Serbia made to behave like a schoolboy in front of a fearsome headmaster!

Today Trump 2.0 is behaviourally not different from Trump 1.0. Maybe worse.

Although the “deal” has yet to be concluded, it will certainly mean much of Ukraine’s mineral rights will go to the US – as a repayment for the billions the US has spent on Ukraine in its proxy war against Russia.

I thought the US was doing out of altruism? The Russians are winning in the battlefields. Putin may allow Trump to broker an end to the war – so that he can look great to the American eyes – but he is not going to give an inch to Zelenskyy. And as it is, European leaders like France’s Emmanuel Macron and UK’s Keir Starmer are still goading Zelenskyy to fight on. But without the support of the US, Ukraine will surely lose the war.

What is left after the war for Ukraine? Zelenskyy has to flee the country, if he has not been liquidated by then. Putin will never allow Ukraine to join NATO, which was precisely the ambition of Zelenskyy that triggered Russia to invade Ukraine in the first place. Ukraine will be a country where much has been destroyed. Few able-bodied are left to rebuild the country. Without a Father Christmas, it will remain in a very pathetic state for many years to come.

People in the former client states of Soviet Union like those in the Baltics, Poland, and those in the Balkans do have good reasons to hate Russia, but the Ukrainians? I beg your pardon! They were as guilty as the Russians!

Ukrainians and Russians were equal partners in the Soviet Union era! (That was also the reason Russia was happy to place the Crimea under Ukraine, even though the Black Sea is so strategic to the former.)

Now the US is deserting Zelenskyy, Europe can never fill the void. The European leaders can shout until their throats run dry. But they will never dare to start a war with Russia themselves.

It is time for Zelenskyy to admit complete defeat and quit. He has to disappear, though; notwithstanding, it is still not too late for him to save Ukraine to some degree.

Apparently, someone significant in Ukraine has already called Putin. Hopefully, this man is prestigious for him to be accepted by the Ukrainians and wise enough to bring Ukranians to believe that they have to do everything to reconcile with a powerful neighbour. After all, they are estranged cousins; all they need is a good 鲁仲连 Lǔ Zhòng-lián[1], and that can be Wang Yi of China!

I am not at all sure whether Ukraine is obliged to repay all the monies that the US and its supporters in Europe and elsewhere have spent on their war against Russia. But why should pay?

I doubt the claims about Ukraine’s abundance in rare earths are for real. But the Ukrainians are as smart as the Russians. They can work together to rebuild the country. And China and the rest of the rational world can always chip in. The type of democracy that is being practised by the Americans and Europeans are only good for window-dressing.

 

End

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[1] A historical character in Chinese history’s Warring States period 戰國 (5th cent-221 BCE), said to be a highly effective in bringing warring parties to come to terms. 

China’s Technological Advances – The Ukrainian Factor

 

In aerospace technology
It was reported just a couple of days ago that China had achieved a huge leap in hypersonic propulsion technology. It simulated the world’s first oblique detonation engine using standard aviation kerosene in Beijing’s JF-12 to an altitude of 40km and speeds up to Mach 16 (about 20,000 km/h), making hypersonic travel and military dominance a reality. This means that in not too distant a future, its missiles could evade all defences!

Currently, it already has its own WS-15 engine to power J-20 fighter – a fifth-generation stealth combat plane that is said to be no inferior to America’s F-35 series. And not too long ago, two new unusual flying objects were seen, one over the sky of Chengdu and the other, the sky of Shenyang. They might not be the prototypes, but certainly they were telling us that China was already in a very advanced stage of ushering in their 6^th generation fighters.

These feats were totally inconceivable seven or eight years ago. How has China’s aerospace come so far in such a short time?

I believe it is the Ukrainian factor.

Before its dissolution in 1991, Soviet Union’s nuclear arsenal was kept in four of its 15 republics – Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakhstan. Ukraine held about one third (about 1,700 warheads) of the inventory. Ukrainians also had significant knowledge of its design and production. However, these weapons were not under their control.

Upon declaring independence, Ukraine pledged to rid itself of nuclear weapons and in December 1994 the leaders of Ukraine, Russia, United Kingdom, and the United States signed a memorandum to provide Ukraine with security assurances in connection with its joining of the treaty on Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons.

But Ukraine could not get their acts together; the country was constantly plagued by political turmoil. The US was certainly the culprit. And due to mismanagement, Ukraine’s economy has been going down the drain since independence. It had to sell its family silvers.

Motor Sich came into the scene.

The firm had inherited a large part of the former Soviet Union's aero engine manufacturing capabilities. It produced turbofan, turboprop and rotary-wing turboshaft engines that powered aircraft in Russian service. In 2014, Motor Sich severed ties with Russia, which was its biggest client, and consequently had to look for new markets. It had no money. China was looking to advance its aerospace engine development and lost no time in knocking at Motor Sich’s door. Before this, China was already using Ukrainian engines to most of its fighter planes – from J-10 and all the way to J-20.

In 2017, China’s Skyrizon Aviation purchased a 41% holding in the company. Skyrizon Aviation agreed to invest $250 million in its Zaporizhzhia plant and helped Motor Sich to set up a new assembly and servicing plant in Chongqing.

But mood was already fast changing in Ukraine. NATO wannabe Volodymyr Zelenskyy was firmly in power. In March 2021, the Ukrainian government announced its intention to nationalize Motor Sich by buying back shares from Chinese holders. Zelenskyy also signed a decree imposing sanctions on Skyrizon. The latter responded with a $3.5 billion arbitration suit. Again, it was obviously who was behind the decision.

Be that as it may, China had two good years to do what they wanted in Motor Sich. With its unparallel ability to absorb and improve, China began to come up with advanced engines. The rest is history.

(Incidentally, following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Motor Sic’s Zaporizhzhia plant had been struck multiple times by the Russians. It could have been destroyed by now.)

In naval technology
Besides jet engines, China had also used Ukraine’s UGT-25000 gas turbines to power its warships, including the very formidable Type 055 destroyers, which have a displacement of 13,000 tonnes.

Today, Chinese are eagerly waiting for the full commissioning of the country’s Type 003 aircraft carrier Fujian, said to be equipped with state-of-the-art electromagnetic catapult system. This feat could not have been possible without the covert purchase of an unfinished aircraft carrier from Ukraine in 1998.

We all know Liaoning (辽宁舰) is China’s first aircraft carrier. It was originally christened Riga and renamed Varyag in 1990. After the dissolution of the Soviet Union, construction was halted, and the ship was put up for sale by Ukraine. The stripped hulk was sold in 1998 and after much delay, was towed to Dalian’s naval shipyard in 2002.

Xu Zengping is largely an unsung hero in China; he bought the ship in an auction in 1998 for $20 million, under the pretext of converting it into a casino.

The ship’s passage from Ukraine to China was torturous. When the tugboat approached the Bosphorus, Turkey denied permission for the ship to pass through, and the ship had to spend the next 16 months being towed around the Black Sea! China had to offer heavy trade and tourism concessions before it was allowed to move on. The whole journey was 28,200 km long and done under an average speed of six knots. Contrary to initial reports that the ship had no engines, all its four engines remained intact at the time of purchase. A refit restored them to working order in 2011. Today, it is in a combat-ready state.

Ukraine today
We all know the war has devastated the country. But Ukraine suffered brain drains even before the Russian invasion. Before the Soviet Union fell apart, Ukraine ranked second in terms of scientific potential amongst the fifteen former republics.

During the Soviet Union era, demand for research and innovation was largely oriented towards heavy industry and servicing military needs. It was incapable of adjusting. Some 20,000 young researchers soon left the country for greener pastures.

 

Coming of Age
After 30 years of relying on technologies from Ukraine, China is now completely capable of building their own military engines and turbines. Their advances have in fact frightened the US to a state of hysteria and paranoia.

We Chinese have a saying: 饮水思源 yǐn shuǐ sī yuan, which translates to "when drinking water, do think of its source. Even though China has arrived in terms of aerospace technology, it should thank the Ukrainians for its incredible achievements.

Many Ukrainian scientists have collaborated with Chinese scientists and worked in China, in universities and in defence research bodies. It is estimated that some 50,000 to 100,000 Ukrainian citizens live in China today, especially in Beijing, Shanghai, and Harbin. There was a highly published account of a senior Ukrainian ocean engineering expert called Yurly Semenov who is now a professor at the Harbin Engineering University, one of China’s top defence research universities.

Geopolitics has strange twists and turns. Without Zelenskyy’s decision – thanks to US promptings, of course – Chinese scientists and engineers might still be struggling to master the complexity of the West’s advanced aerospace and naval technologies.