Ultimately, TACO!

Ultimately, TACO!

Harvard, Diversity, Qatari 747, S Africa White Genocide, Etc

I am sure many readers would know what TACO stands for. But let me hold you in suspense until you have done justice to my effort, i.e., read until the end!

        And I am sure readers have also developed fatigue syndrome on the very mention of the word tariff. I will talk about the subjects in the subtitles, but not in any particular order.

First, the Harvard clamp-down
Not content with punishing Harvard with (a) freezing over $2.65 billion of federal research grants, (b) terminating of some $100 million of federal contracts, and (c) threatening the revocation of tax-exempt status – over accusations of antisemitism, “race discrimination” in admissions, and “diversity” practices – Trump is now blocking its international student enrolment, citing concerns of national security risks. International students account for 27% of its student body. And existing students have also to transfer to other universities if they want to continue their education in the country.

        Trump also proposes reallocating $3 billion in Harvard grants to U.S. trade schools.

        The primary reason for Trump’s fury, however, is believed to be his propensity to inflict vengeance on those who have not given him what he wants. It is believed that his youngest son Barron was not given a place in Harvard, hence the price Harvard must pay. The second reason is the high percentage of Chinese students in Harvard; the rest are really incidental.

        Of course, Harvard is now suing. It has – with some $53 billion of endowments – the financial clout and the best of America’s legal minds. Commonsense says they are likely to win, but one can never tell now. The US justice system is no longer the type we used to admire anymore.

        Although a federal judge has temporarily blocked this move, the fear and uncertainty that Trump has created is causing great hardships to these foreign students. The average cost of studying for a first degree in Harvard is estimated to be about $85K a year and you must be a top student to enrol into Harvard in the first place. Trump with a stroke of a pen has shattered the dreams of these most promising young men and women.

        State Secretary Marco Rubio, who is still on China's sanctions list, has ordered all US embassies to suspend interviews for new applicants of foreign students. This is likely to cause many students to shy away from going to the US for their studies. This will put paid to new intakes, and the US runs the risk of losing tens of billions not only in fees but also in the university towns’ economy. And on Wednesday, he specifically announced that US will start “aggressively” revoking visas issued to Chinese students and will “enhance scrutiny” of applications from mainland China and Hong Kong. This is the latest version of the Chinese Exclusion Act!

        Michio Kaku, who frequently appears on television and film, is a theoretical physicist and futurist, reminds Americans that the secret weapon of the country’s hitherto supremacy in science and technology is H-1B which allows US employers to hire foreign workers in specialty occupations – people with specialized knowledge – and many of whom go on to obtain Green Card.

        (The number of H-1B visas issued each fiscal year is capped at 65,000, with an additional 20,000 visas available for individuals who have earned a master’s degree or higher from a U.S. institution. Sponsorship by an employer is required for applicants. There are some 600,000 H-1B visa holders in the US in 2024. Ethnic Chinese account for between 50,000 and 60,000 of them.)

        But more devastatingly impacted are the China-born scientists, engineers and technologists who have grown deep roots in the US soils. (I no longer want to use the term Americans to describe US nationals now, for doing so, I will be unfair to millions of Canadians and Mexicans, let alone the people in Latin America.) Many are in the cutting edge of the various fields they are respectively in. 

        Many of these Chinese are exiting the US. These are the brains that the US can least afford to lose. (Be that as it may, SCMP reports that many Chinese students are undeterred; they are determined to go to America to pursue their American university dreams regardless. However, one has always to take SCMP with a pinch of salt on such matters!)

Second, the “white” genocide in South Africa
During a recent meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Trump claimed that Black South Africans were conducting "white genocide" in South Africa. Trump brought up the issue of land seizures and farm murders, even producing a picture of an incident that was actually taken in Congo. Ramaphosa dismissed the notion of "white genocide," explaining that South Africa is addressing historical land injustices through legal means and that violent crime affects all racial groups.

        I have visited South Africa twice, once in the mid-1990s and the second, during 2010 World Cup. Cape Town struck me as a city that was as picturesque as Sydney, and its adjacent Stellenbosch was like any wine-growing town in Europe. They were majority “White”, and the people there were certainly very well off.

        I believe rural violence does exist; facts however do not support a racially targeted genocide. The ANC government has pursued land redistribution policies to address apartheid-era dispossession, but expropriation is meant to be constitutional and compensated.

        I can understand Elon Musk’s presence in that Oval Office meeting. He hails from South Africa and therefore has a deep grudge against the Blacks there. In the most sought-after districts of Sydney (Eastern Suburbs) and Melbourne (Southeastern Suburbs), you will certainly run into ex-white South Africans. Many are Jewish.

        The "white genocide" narrative has often been amplified by the far rights all over the western world and Trump, who does not read, is an avid listener of Fox News.

        But the triggers for Trump to re-stage his “Zelenskyy” Oval Office drama are probably his contempt for Blacks and the fact that Ramaphosa did not bring along a “Taylor-Burton” diamond ring as gift for Melania.

Third, “Diversity”
Activists and “what-to-be-politically-correct” institutions champion “diversity” as a commitment to inclusion across race, gender, ethnicity, and sexuality, but In Trump's vocabulary, it means unfairness and must be expunged. Trump argues that diversity initiatives (especially in hiring or education) prioritize identity over qualifications or performance. He criticizes Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) efforts in the military, corporations, and universities, often labelling them as “Marxist” or “un-American”.

        While it is true that in the past America tended to get too apologetic over the DEI issues and acted in ways that defy good sense, Trump’s drive against DEI, in my opinion, is anchored on his personal and political prejudices. His core base basically consists of people who feel they have left behind by demographic and cultural shifts. By positioning himself as a defender of "traditional" American values and institutions, he galvanizes support by portraying diversity efforts as: 

• A threat to the white, working-class identity.
• A form of reverse discrimination.
• A distraction from issues like the economy, national security, or immigration.

         He hates transgenders. So be careful if you are one and are visiting the US!

Qatari 747
Qatar’s ruling family, the Al Thani family, has a long history of using its huge wealth to build strong relationships with influential global leaders. Qatar and Trump’s business interests were at play here. Qatar had investments in Trump’s real estate projects, such as the Trump International Hotel in Washington, D.C., and the Boeing 747 gift was seen as a way to bolster their business dealings with the Trump Organization. Qatar is also home to a major US military base, which plays a critical role in operations across the Middle East.

        U.S. law requires high-level government officials, including the president, to report and declare any gifts they receive from foreign governments. Trump is treating it as if it is a gift for him to keep personally.

         Pressed on the issue, Trump is reported to have say this: Only “Stupid” people reject gifts.

         To me, only vassals offer gifts of such proportion. Even then, an overlord would expect gifts to be something that he could not find in his own backyard. But Boeing 747s are manufactured in Seattle!

         This is morally unacceptable. It legitimizes bribery and corruption at the highest level. Najib Razak can take comfort in Trump’s act; till today, he genuinely believes that the royal family of Saudi Arabia has donated some US700 million to him personally.

Etc one too many!
Trump claimed he could stop the Ukraine war within 24 hours. What happened? Putin plays him like a Rubik’s cube, and with one hand for that matter. He told Trudeau that it was time that Canada became the US’s 51^st state. Carney asks him to go and “fly kite”. Ditto the Greenlanders.

        India and the Philippines are perhaps the only non-Anglo-Saxon countries that truly believe in Trump. (Modi and Marcos Jr share a common type of genetic disorder with Trump which, with the help of DeepSeek, I have come to know as DEL1 – a “delusional gene” which the world may have to adopt when my thesis of them is accepted! Die-hard DPP leaders of Taiwan are another, but Taiwan is not a country. It is a renegade province; hence it is out of this count.) Hitherto US supporters like Japan, Korea, the EU have grown tired of Trump.

        Trump can bully the weak, even though they know his lies. But it is the fear of the liar that makes them yield willingly. In the Geneva meet between Chinese and American trade negotiators, it was obvious that the US had folded to China, notwithstanding, Trump still wanted the world to believe that he had scored a win. Another perversion of the Trump kind.

        Back to TACO. The acronym stands for “Trump Always Chickens Out”. It was coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong in early May after observing that Trump would always announce aggressive tariff measures only to retreat or soften them after market backlash or political pressure.

        TACO will always hold true for everything that Trump brags!!! It is also a characteristic of those who suffer from DEL1.

End

Third Brother, Geese, Tài Dí and Ah Q – Their Inter-Relationships

This post of mine is likely to upset many Indian friends and readers of my blog. However, I hope they will take it with an open mind. All cultures have their own traits, ingrained upon us through upbringing, which manifest in the way we behave without self-consciousness or awareness but deem incorrect or ridiculous in the eyes of other cultures or norms. Maybe it is through feedback like this that we truly know what other communities really think of us as a race or community and how we should help overcome their perceptions.

Being a 76-year-old with few things to care, I tend to troll the apps in my iPhone like an addicted teenager – especially YouTube and TikTok. Some may ask why I am using an iPhone instead of Huawei since I have been writing so chauvinistically on China. The truth is, I bought a Huawei pad before, but only to discover I could not make good use of its many features, since I am practically pinyin-illiterate and no longer able to write out Chinese characters even though I know them fairly well. When Huawei relaunched its smartphone two years or so ago, I booked to buy one only to lose my deposit – because I found I would not be able to use it to download some western apps which I needed to use. I have also been quite frustrated with my spare Samsung phone, which uses Android, which I think is too clumsy for an old man like me to use. So, no choice but iPhone! (I heard Huawei’s boss Ren Zhengfei also carries an iPhone with him.)

In a recent troll, I chanced upon this handsome young man. He calls himself 凯叔 [Kǎi-shū – young uncle Kǎi]. I was very impressed by his narratives. In one of them, entitled三哥, 鹅, 泰迪, 阿Q之间的关系 (The Inter-relationships between Sān-gē [Third Elder Brother], É [geese], Tài Dí [泰迪] and Ah Q), he explains a prejudice or the way we Chinese tend to think of or stereotype the Indians.

In the video, he is talking about the May 7 air battle between the Indians and Pakistanis over the sky of Indian-controlled Kashmir in which six Indian aircraft, three of which were the French-made Rafales, and an Israeli-made drone were wiped out by Pakistan’s PL-15E fired from its J-10Cs, both of which were, as we all know, China-made.

Even though the loss had been reported by the mainstream media, albeit with “It is believed” or “yet-to-confirm” tags, Indian prime minister Modi went on to order a nation-wide, 10-day, victory celebration. This euphoria certainly looks very ironical or strange to the non-Indian world. There is a lady Indian news anchor who went on to flatly claim that the impotency of the Chinese fighter jets had resulted in the loss of their missiles in the incident. She also claimed that the share price of the manufacturer of these J-10Cs plunged after the incident. Another VIP there blatantly screamed that Chinese were incapable of flying state-of-the-art aircraft. I really could not believe my ears!

All these syiok sendiri (Malay slang; self-gratification) talks are most bewildering to Chinese, since no Chinese was actually involved in the fight, except that the Pakistani system in its entirety was procured from China. Why are they going after the Chinese?

China-India relationship has been a very complex one. It is said that the Indus Valley civilization existed from approximately 3300 BCE to 1300 BCE. Historically, Chinese called India Tiānzhú [天竺], which means "Centre of Heaven". Chinese Buddhist monks travelled to India, often via the Silk Road, to acquire Buddhist sutras and scriptures, a practice that significantly shaped Buddhism in China. Notable examples include Faxian, who embarked on a pilgrimage to India in 399 CE, and Xuanzang, who travelled in the 7th century. 

India was amongst the first to recognise the People’s Republic of China after Chiang Kai-shek fled to Taiwan. Jawaharlal Nehru was fond of China; strong relationship was cemented during the 1955 Bandung Conference – a non-aligned movement of the newly independent Afro-Asian countries. Relationship turned sour over the McMahon Line and in 1962, they fought a brief war in which the Chinese forces prevailed. There were several skirmishes after that.

Apparently, India has never accepted they have lost in any of these encounters, including the 1962 war. 

Indians have always harboured a certain complex over Chinese. They will always want to benchmark against Chinese, not others including their formal colonial masters English. I was told that this is a common parent-to-children or teacher-to-student exhortation amongst the Indians: “If you don’t work harder, the Chinese will soon catch up with you!” We have to ask the Indians to confirm if this is in fact true.

This Kǎi-shū gentleman was trying to explain this Indian “phenomenon” and I thought he did it very well, including the concept of "loss" in Indian minds.

I suppose there is no need for me to explain who or what Sān-gē’s [三哥, Third Elder Brothers] are, suffice to say that commentators in Taiwan love to refer to Indians as Sān-gē’s.

Kǎi-shū’s use of the second term É [鹅geese] is an eye-opener to me. He says he used to be chased by geese when he was young. He could understand that, since he was physically small. But when he was already an adolescent and therefore much taller and bigger in size, the geese he met each time would still see fit to peck him. After some research, he came to know that to the geese’s eyes, all objects look small and are game for attack! I do not know how far this is true, though. To him, therefore, Indians see everyone as inferior to them, hence the geese syndrome or phenomenon!

I did not know his meaning of the term 泰迪 [Tài Dí ], save to guess that it is a somewhat derogatory term. I consulted DeepSeek, which immediately produced – I thought – a good answer but only to disappear almost immediately with this message: “Sorry, that’s beyond my current scope. Let’s talk about something else." How disappointing! I tried ChatGPT, and it confirmed my intuition. It says the term literally refers to “Teddy”, as in a Teddy Dog (usually a poodle groomed in a teddy bear style). It has developed derogatory connotations in some Chinese internet slang and social contexts – something to do with promiscuousness, manipulativeness, superficially charming but not trustworthy, etc. Now I understand why Kǎi-shū is using it here! I think readers can also understand his subtlety.

The last term Ah Q [阿Q] is a character used by great author Lǔ Xùn [鲁迅] to remind Chinese of a certain aspect of ugly Chineseness. His novella The True Story of Ah Q [阿Q正传, Ā Q Zhèng-Zhuàn] talks about a poor, uneducated, and yet self-important rural peasant, as he navigates the hardships and injustices of his time in China – with misplaced self-exultation over often sour-grape encounters.

This young narrator was not talking about the inter-relationships of these terms per se; he was in fact trying to epitomize Indianness with the essences of these terms.

I suppose it is very hard for Chinese to understand the hostility between India and Pakistan. Ditto with the Russians and the Ukrainians. Are they not of the same people? We Chinese want to fight to unite, like what we want to do on Taiwan. These peoples fight to divide! To Chinese, nationalism based on shared identity – which can take many forms, like ethnicity, history or destiny, etc – is supreme. On the other hand, faith is a personal matter, and cultures are largely community centric. There is room for everyone!

End

Why Should We Fear China?

 

In a recent visit to South Africa, a good friend was asked by a business associate there if one should fear China. Apparently, this South African gentleman had read many negative media reports on China. 

Upon his return, my friend took pain to compose the following to help explain the truth to his associate. He has shared the composition with me. The concerns are very well explained and I have obtained his greenlight to share it with readers as well.

 

* * * * *

 

This question requires more than a simple answer of "you need not fear" or "you should fear".

This is because we live at a time when a massive information war is being waged on China, conducted principally by the USA and some of her allies.

As a start, we need to have a clear understanding of how the world we live in is organised and the sources of information which influence our views, thinking and perspectives.

I believe you are aware that worldwide only about half a dozen news agencies in the US and Europe are the primary supplier of news/information to most of the world's English media. (Reuters, Associated Press, Bloomberg, AgreeFrance-Presse, UPI, and BBC, etc). However increasingly the monopoly power of these news agencies is being challenged by social media.

One interesting example. If you follow the western English media, how many countries do you think have sanctioned Russia over its invasion of Ukraine? You would be forgiven if you think most countries have sanctioned Russia. 

This is the actual answer: No African country, No country from the Middle East, No South American country. In the whole of Asia only three countries (Japan, S. Korea, and Singapore). So only the USA, most (not all) European countries, Canada and three from Asia.

Beyond official and commercial sources, the American CIA is a major and very powerful player in spreading information and influence, directly and indirectly. It was recently reported that the CIA has a budget of USD1.6 billion to "manage news and information" on China. Among others this money is used to support media organisations and reporters around the world on their reporting on China. To put it mildly, to spread disinformation about China.

The world is now at an inflection point. American hegemony and dominance is giving way to a multi-polar world, with emerging powers ranging from China to Russia to Brazil and India. However, this is a development America is unwilling to accept and therefore the risk that America will go to war to protect its hegemony is real.

China due to the size of its population and economy (which is already larger than the US based on purchasing power parity), is therefore viewed by American leaders as its most serious rival and even enemy. This is despite China's protests that it has no intention to displace America. China's per capita income is still not even a quarter of that of the American's. However, the US still feels threatened and continues to take actions to retard China's progress or growth. It has stopped the exports of advanced semiconductor chips to China and also prevented other countries from doing so. It also does not allow The Netherlands, a sovereign nation, to export advanced chip making machines to China. And also sanctions many Chinese companies in the name of national security.

The Information War.

Based on the English mainstream media, these are some of the recurring themes when they report about China. It would take many pages to discuss each of these topics. But I will briefly touch on each. If you are still interested after reading this email, the rest you need to read by yourself:

1.  China wants to disrupt the existing global order.

But what is this "existing global order" which is being threatened? It is, of course, one in which America (and her allies) dominates and controls. Most international institutions set up after WWII were and still are dominated by the US and European countries. The UN, IMF, World Bank etc. No head of any of them can be appointed without the approval of America. The World Bank head is always an American and the head of the IMF is always from France. Even the Asian Development Bank (ADB) is dominated by the US which always appointed a citizen of its close ally, Japan. No Chinese has ever been President of the ADB, even though the Chinese economy has long surpassed Japan's and is a few times larger than that of France.

However, when any of these institutions are no longer considered useful or no longer follow the wishes of the US, the US starts to abandon them. For example, the US has withdrawn from the WHO and stopped appointment of members to the Dispute Settlement Panel to WTO to prevent hearing of cases brought against the US.

2. China bullies its neighbours in the South China Sea and threatens freedom of navigation.

There are real territorial disputes over areas of the South China Sea, not just involving China but also between Vietnam and Philippines or Vietnam and Malaysia. Most of these disputes resulted from former colonial powers arbitrarily drawing boundaries or territory seized during war e.g., the Diaoyutai islands were seized by the Japanese and supposed to be returned to China after WWII, but it did not happen.

There are also constant accusations that China will threaten freedom of navigation in the South China Sea. This is very strange. China is the world's largest trading nation. Virtually all her trade is by sea via the South China Sea. Why would China want to restrict navigation in the South China sea when it would be the first to suffer if there is any disruption?

3. China subsidizes research and development of its industries which give them an unfair competitive advantage.

Every country subsidizes research and development, but they go under different names and labels. In America, the government gives all kinds of research grants to universities and industries. Many American innovations came from military research. 

Boeing is probably one of the most subsidised companies in the USA. Likewise, Airbus is heavily subsidized by European governments.

4. Chinese companies sell their products overseas at below costs (" dumping"). 

Every time an American industry cannot compete, the easiest thing to do is accuse the foreign competitor of dumping. It used to be Japan but now the focus is on China.

Many complaints against China of dumping to the WTO have proven to be not true under proper scrutiny.

As you know, in manufacturing, you should continue to produce so long as your marginal revenue is higher than your marginal costs, even though your marginal revenue is below total costs. This is because your fixed costs are sunk costs. This we learn in our introductory economics course.

One huge advantage Chinese companies enjoy is their massive market and scale. Economies of scale which no other country can match. In the 1950s and 1960s America was in this position.

But later American companies decided to outsource production to other countries because it was more profitable to do so. And most moved their production to China, with her well educated and disciplined labour force. Now American politicians accuse China of stealing American jobs!

China's new energy vehicles are one such example which enjoys economies of scale. Few countries will be able to compete. Of course, China is also way ahead in new energy vehicles technology. Other examples are solar panels and cellular technology.

If all the accusations of dumping (selling below costs) by Chinese industries are true, China should be bankrupt by now!

5.  Unfair Trade Balance.

For the last 30 - 40 years or so, companies in many developed countries decided it was more profitable to have their products manufactured in China while they concentrate on designs, marketing and promoting their brands. China's lower labour costs, disciplined & better educated workers were able to produce at much lower costs.

Brands like Apple totally outsource their production overseas. It is estimated that if Apple were to make phones in the US, it would have to be sold at about USD3,500 compared with about USD1,500 based on production in China. China did not force Apple and others to manufacture in China. They went voluntarily.

The outsourcing of production over the decades has resulted in the hollowing out of manufacturing in the US and parts of Europe. There were negative consequences. Partly because of this and inequitable income distribution, the American middle class have not done well in the last 20-30 years. This is the main reason they voted for Trump.

However, one should note that the US and Europe had increasingly focussed on export of services instead of goods. America and the UK enjoy huge service export surpluses.

6. China lends money to developing countries which they cannot afford to pay back and thus place them in debt traps.

In any report in the western mainstream media, it is obligatory to accuse China of "debt trap" whenever there is a report that China is involved in funding some infrastructural projects in Africa, Southeast Asia, or South America.

The term "debt trap" was first used by an India writer and now used repeatedly by the media, even though several studies by American think tanks have confirmed there is no truth in this.

It is of course true that some of the countries which borrowed from China to build infrastructures were unable to service their debt but the same is true of those who borrow from the World Bank or commercial banks. Much of the infrastructure, such as roads, ports or railway lines are economically beneficial but may not provide near term financial returns. This is not unusual.

One point of difference is that most loans granted by China are to finance infrastructure projects. Much of the loans from the US are reportedly to buy American military wares.

A report by Bloomberg on 18 March 2022 stated:

Over the past two decades, China has built large infrastructure projects in Africa, making Western powers uncomfortable amid wider concerns about Beijing's investments across the continent. However, a deeper look shows that accusations of so-called debt trap diplomacy turned out to be unfounded.

7. China is ruled by a communist dictatorship and its population has no rights or freedom.

Politically China is definitely ruled by the Chinese communist party but economically it is as capitalist as you can get.

There are no western "liberal democracy" type elections, but political leaders are selected through a meritocratic system which has been in operation for thousands of years, interrupted only during wars and civil unrest.

There may be no elections, but leaders go through a tough selection process based primarily on merit, performance, and accountability. More than half of the top dozen Chinese leaders are highly trained engineers.

For most of its over 2,000 years history China has been ruled by emperors who are held accountable by the Chinese people to meet basic needs; availability of food, peace, and security. The concept of western style "democracy" is alien to Chinese culture whose dominant influence comes from the teaching of Confucius (respect for authority which in turn must take care of the needs of the people, centrality of the family, importance of education, filial piety, etc). Soldiers are among the lowest ranked in Confucian culture. Chinese do not like wars and have low respect for soldiers.

As one leading political scientist likes to point out, pre Covid, each year 150 million Chinese citizens travel overseas for vacations, and they all return to China. If China is such a terrible, repressed society you would have expected many not to return.

America and some European countries have always claimed their form of governments, "liberal democracy" is what the rest of the world must follow because only their form of government will result in economic growth and development. China's economic success is not supposed to have happened because it is ruled by a communist party. Thus, China is a threat for offering a different path for development.

8. China is destroying the culture of the Tibetans and violating the human rights of the Uyghurs (Muslims) and use child labour in Xinjiang.

For a very long time the US and some of her allies have made every effort to stir up the Tibetans (province of Tibet) and Uyghurs (province of Xinjiang). Why so? Is America so concerned about these people? 

There are constant claims China is committing genocide in these two provinces. 

To date, no evidence has been provided to support those accusations.

Tibet and Xinjiang are sparsely populated provinces with minority citizens. Combined they cover 30 % of China's land area. They are also rich in mineral resources. Xinjiang is a major producer of cotton and the centre of China's solar panel industries. The Uyghurs are Sunni Muslims, and some were influenced by extremist groups from central Asia. There used to be terrorist attacks but has since been curbed. Numerous leaders of Muslim countries have visited Xinjiang and not a single Muslim country has supported accusations of genocide. 

An important fact. When China had its one child policy, the minority races, like Uyghurs were exempted. And in fact, the Uyghurs are the fastest growing race in China. How could this be if the Chinese govt is carrying out genocide against them?

China believes America hopes to cause some Chinese provinces such as Tibet and Xinjiang to separate and cause China to collapse like the former Soviet Union.

9. China's economy is going to collapse soon.

Every few months a segment of the western English media will predict the imminent collapse of China's economy. The Economist magazine is most famous for this.

I read The Economist magazine from high school until about 5 years ago. What often are passed as analysis are nothing more than wishful thinking or simply a desire to demonise.

I am still waiting for the collapse of China's economy.

10.  China Intellectual property ("IP") 's theft.

Since my generation's school days, we were taught that if a country has no freedom (wrong to begin with, as it is always a matter of degree) and democracy, its citizens will not be creative and cannot innovate or invent new things. So, this fits very neatly into the narrative that China, a communist country, with no freedom, will have to steal intellectual properties because it is not able to create them. This does make one think from whom China steals its 5G or her EV technologies, where it is way ahead of everybody else?

What is true is that at times in return for market access China had required technology transfer from foreign companies or set up factories in China. Many developing countries do so. It is not theft but part of a bargain, an agreement. This is a practice of even the US, requiring TSMC to set up factories in the US to be allowed to continue exports from Taiwan.

Based on many reports, China now in fact is ahead in several new technologies. New energy vehicles, solar energy, 5G cellar technology, quantum computing, etc. You cannot be ahead by stealing.

It has been widely acknowledged that Chinese scientists are ahead in several areas of scientific research and publications. How is this possible? China, with 1.4 billion people has a huge talent pool, supported by relentless emphasis on education. Many reports suggest that China produces 8 to 10 times more engineering graduates than the USA each year and more than 50% of the World's.

11.  China is aggressive and could cause wars.

Since 1949, China has been involved in two brief border wars. By the way, China has a land border with 14 countries. 

The first war was with India over territorial disputes due to the arbitrary border line drawn along the Himalaya mountains by the British (India has a similar dispute with Pakistan over Kashmir). This border dispute is still not settled. 

And then in 1979, the Chinese army moved about 20 kilometres into the northern part of Vietnam (but completely withdrew after only one month) to punish Vietnam for invading Cambodia, a close ally of China. I have no time to go into the details but please read up if you are interested.

Chinese people do not like wars. This is not to say there were no wars in China, which usually took place when an emperor lost his legitimacy because his citizens' needs were not met. China, however, very rarely invades neighbouring countries despite her immense power compared with neighbours for many centuries. As mentioned earlier Confucian culture abhors wars.

12.  Risk of WWIII.

America became the dominant economic and military power after WWII, with the Soviet Union as a potential competitor. However, the economy of the Soviet Union was nowhere close to that of the US. The Soviet Union went into an unsustainable arms race with the US resulting in its collapse. Thereafter the US became the undisputed sole superpower.

However, since the turn of the millennium (2000) China's rapid economic growth has inadvertently led it to challenge American economic leadership. Economic power underpins military powers, even though China spends not even half of the US in defence. Increasingly the US views China as a rival and an enemy and therefore must be contained or defeated. Its development must be stopped or slowed down. America does not want another country which can challenge its supremacy, even though China has consistently made clear that it has no interest to challenge US supremacy. Nonetheless America took actions to slow or retard China's progress. A blatant hostile action was to make Canada arrest the daughter of the founder of Huawei, Meng Wanzhou, in 2021 based on some spurious charges. Since then, there had been a string of sanctions on Chinese companies under the cover of “national security”.

To China, recent American/ European containment attacks are a painful reminder of its "Century of Humiliation" in the hands of foreigners. In1839, the first opium war started when China tried to stop British imports of opium into China. The British declared war and with their superior weapons China was easily defeated and had to agree to massive war reparations as well as cede over the control of Hong Kong.

A second opium war started in 1856, this time involving the British and French which again led to China's defeat and further concessions and unequal treaties. Thereafter China was reduced to a semi-colony, with many parts of China under foreign control. For example, Macau under the Portuguese and Shandong area under Germans. China's government was forced to legalize opium in China.

Given this history, it is quite impossible for the Chinese government to give in to American unreasonable demands. This is clearly demonstrated in the way China reacted to Trump's tariffs.

Trump demanded the Chinese President to call him or China to contact the US to initiate negotiations. It did not happen. In the end it was the Americans who had to reach out to China first. Not a surprise to me at all.

I expect America to continue to treat China as a rival and an enemy. Moreover, if the US is unable to resolve the country's economic problems and control the growth of huge debt (USD 36 trillions), in desperation it may see war as a means to wipe the books clean. A war between America and China is likely to be the end of mankind.

This is my greatest fear, and it should be yours too.

Should South Africa fear China?

Let’s now turn to your country, South Africa.

1. Militarily, I do not think South Africa should fear China.

2. Economically, in terms of manufacturing, I think it will be very tough for South Africa to compete with China. However, it would make a lot of sense for South Africa to encourage Chinese companies to set up factories in South Africa to manufacture for the markets in Africa or elsewhere.

3. China is also potentially a huge market for South Africa's tourism as well as agricultural products, including wines.

4. China also has been very successful in bringing 800 million people out of poverty in a few decades; perhaps with some lessons to be learnt.

5. China's infrastructures development is probably second to none, a number of Asian countries are trying to emulate.

This is how I see China. Some are opinions. Many are not and can be substantiated.

Sorry, rather lengthy but not easy to give a short answer.

 

J-10C IS JUST THE STARTER

While I was giving a talk – A Rising China, Impact on the World and Its Symbolisation to Ethnic Chinese – at Shing An Association in Kuala Lumpur on May 10 afternoon, two stop-press events had just happened: (a) the downing of some Indian fighter jets by Pakistan’s China-made PL-15E missiles fired from also its China-made J-10Cs, and (b) the “agreement” reached between China and the US over tariff rates in Geneva. The second is quite irrelevant to what the topic was, but the first was one which directly affected my presentation, and I had to make some impromptu remarks about its significance. (The essence of the presentation I meant to deliver that day has been posted on my blog.)

I was too casual in sweepingly saying that the Pakistanis had used the J-10s to kill India’s Rafales which prompted a friend in the audience Dato Dr HY Yeang to write to correct my understanding. He says, “… Superiority of the Chinese jets might well be true, but there was actually no dogfight between the planes from the two countries. Much of the Pakistani success leading to the downing of the Indian Dassault Rafale jets (from France) could be more directly attributed to the Chinese PL-15 air-to-air missiles and related electronic support. The Mach 5 missiles were equipped with Beyond Visual Range (BVR) ability that allowed them to be launched against targets detected by radar even when they were still kilometres away. The Indian pilots had reportedly only 9 seconds to react when their planes first detected the approaching missiles….”

Indeed, I did know it was the PL-15s that did the destruction, but not quite know the full account. I must thank YH for the feedback.

However, until today, no one in India would want to admit the fact that at least three of their recently acquired Rafales and two Russian-made fighter jets had been shot down in the “May 7” incident. The Western and pro-West media would only say “maybe one” had met this fate.

The French made Rafales are supposed to be the world’s most sophisticated 4.5^th generation fighters, and on the other hand, J-10Cs have often been ridiculed as China 4^th generation wannabes.

It is impossible, they scream!

But it happened, and only the Indians are still believing that they have done the Pakistanis in instead.

On April 22, five armed militants opened fire on a group of tourists, killing 26 people and injuring 20 others, and this prompted India to launch Operation Sindoor. No one seems to be able to tell for certain how many aircraft were used by India to strike hard on the Pakistanis, but for sure, many squadrons were deployed.

Let me return to the May 7 incident.

The above illustration was made by a former deputy air chief of Taiwan.

The invading Indian aircraft were firing missiles and thus were exposing their radar signatures to Pakistan’s AWACS 500 (whose ZDK-03 system has a detection range of 400 km) and J-10C fighter jets. Soon, the Indian aircraft came under the tracking of Pakistan’s HQ-9B (HQ stands for Hong-Qi, “Red Flag”) mobile anti-aircraft missile launchers, which have a range of about 300 km. However, they did not strike; instead, it relayed the Indian aircraft’s exact paths back to their AWACS. When the Indian aircraft flew within PL-15E’s range, the J-10Cs, without giving away their radar signatures, fired the PL-15Es, and allowed their air-to-air missiles to be guided by the AWACS to lock and hit the targets with incredible precision. The Indian pilots had hardly any time to react, let alone to fire the Rafale’s Spectra air-to-air missiles. Of course, all this would not have been possible without the help of China's BeiDou satellites.

India’s formidable Russian-made S400 defence system was also rendered useless in this incident.

This is a classic example of Sun-tze! Deception, deception, deception! (The West is always about frontal attacks, the Japanese about flanking, and the Chinese, “You don’t know what I am and where I am!”

The whole Pakistani theatre was conducted with China’s wholesome system – the awesomeness of it far exceeds the mere aggregation of the components’ individual capabilities. On the other hand, India’s is a mixed bag of advanced tools with little room for complementarity in terms of uses. (Apparently, always wanting to stamp their own mark, the Indians had also had their radar system Originally supplied by the Israelis, modified!)

It is said that two Rafales were shot down by a one Pakistanis pilot alone! And she is a woman pilot!

It is also said that a couple of days before the incident, four Indian fighter jets had to turn around after they were intercepted by two Pakistani J-10Cs. Some experts speculated that they were electronically jammed by J-10Cs and rendered “blind”, hence the retreat. I do not know how true this is: apparently, India’s deputy air chief was sacked after this incident.

This incident is going to change the global market for weaponry for good.

J-10C is built by China’s Chengdu Aircraft Corporation. The price is $40 million apiece. It can reach to a speed of Mach 1.8. However, its combat radius is only 1,250 km, compared to Rafale’s 1,850 km. The basic price of a Rafale is around $100 million basic, but together with all the other stuff thrown in, the Indian version costs more than $250 million apiece!  

So far only Pakistan has bought J-10s from China, and the variant sold is J-10C. J-10 is in fact a somewhat dated fighter jet. It was developed in the mid-1980s and first introduced into service in 2005. Today, China is flying J-20 and J-35, which are 5^th generation aircraft. The prototypes of its 6^th generation fighters J-36 and J-50 have already been seen in the skies of Chengdu and Shenyang respectively.

The US’s F47 is still very much on the drawing board. And its F35 has a reputation for being able to dive deep into oceans! 

It is without a doubt that China is not producing toys that the West wants us to believe. They sell “systems” that can achieve much more than others – at a fraction of the latter’s costs.

Wouldn’t you want to try them out?

I heard Egypt is now seriously considering China’s war planes. Several other countries are likely to follow; some may even cancel or cut down their French orders. Or for that matter, the US, the Swedish, or the Korean contemplations!

And the US’s Military-Industrial Complex is certainly going to take a sharp dive too. Countries like India and Israel will not dare to bully their neighbours in the way they use to do.

The Modi government is now rallying the Indian masses to celebrate the country’s “victory” in Operation Sindoor. Isn’t their joy a perversion of the worst kind?

No wonder the comedians and cartoonists in China are having a field day in helping the Indians celebrate their victory.

 End

A RISING CHINA – Impact on the World and How it matters to Ethnic Chinese 华裔 (Huá-Yì)

Thanks to my good friend Tan Sin Su, I had the opportunity to give a talk on the topic at the Shing Ann  (兴安) Association of Kuala Lumpur and Selangor this afternoon. Below is the gist of what I meant to say, which might not have been well conveyed during the session due to my tendency to suffer from "stage dementia" when I speak in public! 

* * * * *

百年未有之大变局

(Bǎi Nián Wèi Yǒu Zhī Dà Biàn Jú)

China’s President Xi Jinping has been warning that a once-in-a-hundred-years change is going to befall the world, and all should be prepared for it.

* * * * *

I am not an academic in geopolitics, nor am I a political scientist or analyst with a think-tank. I am just someone who takes a keen interest in geopolitics, in which everybody is an expert now.

I am not against the US or the West. I still admire them, especially about their universities, architecture, general good tastes and social etiquette.

Those of you who have been following my blog might notice that I have often bashed China and Chinese in the past. However, my sentiment changed after 2018.

Let me begin with these three charts:

In nominal terms, China’s GDP day is about 19 trillion dollars, versus US’s 30 trillion dollars. But in terms of Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), the figures are 38 trillion dollars and 25 trillion dollars respectively. China surpassed the US in 2015. (If the outlandish prices paid by the US government, especially its military, in the procurement of goods are to be believed, and also the McDonalds you pay in the US today, then China’s PPP strength might even be higher!)

You might remember last year many Western and pro-West economists and journalists have been arguing that China’s economy is plateauing, like what happened to Japan after the Plaza Accord in 1985 Their argument did seem justified, considering there was a huge real-estate crisis, young unemployment and weakening Yuan then.

I personally think these economists and journalists do not quite understand the structure of Chinese economy and the resolve of its leaders. To me, China will continue to rise for several years. And the present Tariff War launched by Donald Trump will greatly accelerate the pace.

My confidence is premised on the following factors: It has a political system, hitherto considered menacing to the free world, is now something that is worthy of praise. Xi is like no other Communist ideologue; he is a sage ruler. Its internal market is huge and discerning, and most important of all, its human capital is immense and industrious.

China has leapfrogged (弯道超车) the West in many technological fronts now. Its military strength is the pride of Chinese all over the world.

However, despite the unstoppable trend, China has vowed not to replace the US as the hegemon of the world.

Be that as it may, the next 18 months or so can still be painful to the Chinese economy.

Trump just does not know what Policy [政策] is about…

Policy is a set of principles, ideas or plans used in politics, economics, or business, as a basis for making decisions. Trump is totally devoid of that understanding; he acts egoistically, impulsively and emotionally. Everything is a deal to him – call out bids ridiculously and content to settle for a song – if he thinks he has gained an advantage over his opponent.

His tariffs are against everyone – foes and friends alike.

Some background to begin with…

Deng Xiaoping opened up China. Young Chinese students were too anxious to break out, hence the Tian-An Men incident in 1989. Deng knew the consequences and was quick to reign them in. But China was badly portrayed. The Soviet Union disintegrated in 1991, reinforcing the belief that western democracy is the be-all-and-end-all system for the world to adopt. The US – under Ronald Reagan then – became the undisputed leader of the world.

Notwithstanding, the US was not being seen as the hegemon; rather it was accepted as the global cop.

China got admitted to the World Trade Organisation (WTO) in December 2001 – after 15 years of hard negotiations, largely by Zhu Rongji [朱镕基]. Its economy started to fly. And this attracted the attention of Barack Obama who was facing blatant oppositions from the rising neo-Cons in the country. He had to neutralise the neo-Cons with a “Pivot to Asia” strategy. That was in 2011.

The Chinese leaders read history, and this makes them extremely conscious of the importance of geostrategy and geopolitics in dealing with the external world and they must plan well ahead of time. Besides bringing up the economy, they knew they also needed to strengthen its military; the control of South China Sea must be had.

The China Dream

Xi Jinping [习近平] became the General Secretary Party of the Communist Party of China (CPC) in 2012, and President of China in 2013. The embodiment of Xi’s political ideology is the China Dream [中国梦] – the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation [中华民族伟大复兴] the objective of which is for China to become a “modern socialist country that is prosperous, strong, democratic, civilised and harmonious.”

Xi said that young people should "dare to dream, work assiduously to fulfil the dreams and contribute to the revitalization of the nation." 

The concept of the Chinese Dream served as part of the inspiration for the Belt and Road Initiative and Made in China 2025 ambition.

Xi strongly believed in Globalization [全球化]. The world was flat, and the theory of Comparative Advantage was a matter of course. He just wanted Chinese to live a better tomorrow.

Entered Trump 1.0

America was tired of itself and elected Donald Trump, a six-times bankrupt, as their President in November 2016. He visited China in 2017 and what he saw there shocked him. China was enjoying a lifestyle that was built on stuff stolen from the Americans! China must pay for it. Hence the first trade war a couple of months later.

China was not quite prepared for it and two things made China’s situation more vulnerable: the mass protests in Hong Kong and the COVID-19. Fortunately, it had great resolve. On the other hand, the way Trump handled the pandemic made him looked amateurish and helpless as a leader. And for the first time, Taiwan under a re-elected Tsai Ing-wen, became a willing pawn under the open embrace of Mike Pompeo, US’s Secretary of State.

China and Taiwan’s 1992 Consensus [九二共识] – Harmonious co-existence under the big China umbrella – was openly discarded by Tsai, whose DPP had all along been championing an independent Taiwan.

We Chinese do not buy this stuff!

Trump’s ineptness caused him to lose to Joe Biden in the 2020 election.

From the very outset, Biden was all out to retard China. He lost time in dispatching Antony Blinken and Jake Sullivan to Alaska to intimidate China, but only to be humiliated by Yang Jiechi [杨洁篪] with this line “中国人不吃这一套” (Zhōng Guó Rén Bù Chī Zhè Yī Tào). We Chinese do not buy that stuff!

Biden rounded all and sundry to launch AUKUS, Five-Eyes, and what-have-you, and the Chips Act to suppress China on the geopolitical and technological front, far more lethal than tariffs. Tsai felt more embolden, in the wake of Biden team’s lip commitment to America’s One-China policy. The Deep State – America’s military-industrial-media-Jewish complex – openly reared its ugly head.

America’s mood in 2024 was turning sour against Biden. He was seen as weak and semi-demented (but not because of his China policy, but the war in Ukraine.) And Trump was again elected, as American 47^th President!

But China was already unstoppable…

The objectives set for China 2025 have largely been achieved. Save for the more rural areas, it is already a developed world by any standard. It has not only fully taken care of the four basics of life for its people – clothing, food, housing and mobility – but is already at the pinnacle of almost everything.

Some 800 million people have been brought out of poverty. But China’s population has peaked and is trending down. Aging is an issue. It certainly cannot rest on its laurels.

Facing the New Xiong-Nus [匈奴]

The first thing is to secure the South China Sea. Chinese leaders had great foresight. It covertly acquired an aircraft carrier from Ukraine in 1998 and refurnished it and named it Type 001 Liaoning. In 2017 it bought into Moto Sich – Ukraine’s very advanced engine maker. Even though the deal had to be terminated, China had two good years to learn. And they form the basis of China’s air and naval great leapfrogs during the last five years.

Today, maybe some fifty to hundred thousand Ukrainians are said to be happily working in China.

China’s Navy now boasts Type 003 Fujian, but in my opinion, its Type 055 destroyers of 13,000 displacement (8 already in service; more are coming) and Type 095 nuclear submarines are even more deadly.

Its Airforce’s J20 rivals the US’s F35, and the silhouettes of its 6^th generation fighters had already appeared over the Chengdu and Shenyang skies.  

Its Rocket Force is even more lethal. In September 2024, it fired a what is believed to be a DF (Dong Feng) 31 across the Pacific Ocean. Its DF series, some of which are hypersonic – from 21 to 41 – are said to be more advanced than what America has, not to mention it has just successfully tested a non-nuclear Hydrogen Bomb,

Notwithstanding, it is maintaining a 1-million strong Ground Force because of total geostrategic considerations.

China is producing around 1.4 to 1.5 million engineering graduates (about 40% of total) annually, representing nearly one-third of the world's total engineering graduates. It qualifies some 77,000 PhDs a year (USA - 40,000). Many Chinese universities rank in the top global 100 today. Some of their universities of technologies are equally formidable in their research and achievements.

In its March 2023 tracker Australia’s ASPI, which I think quite lowly of, says China leads 37 out of 44 technologies in the world.

Huawei, Tencent, AliBaba, SMIC, BYD, DJI, CATL, Xiaomi are just some of the names that came to my mind immediately; there are also DeepSeek and its fellow five little dragons in Hangzhou, not to mention the Wu-Kong game and Ne-Zha film producers.

In space technology, China has already sent up another Shenzhou – Shenzhou 20 this time. Its 2030 moon landing target is likely to be on track. It can even refuel spacecrafts in orbits.

China is mass-producing 7-nm chips without ASML’s EVU machines, albeit at a higher cost. (Apparently, they can also do 5-nm ones.) I understand that they have also made breakthroughs in carbon-based microchips, which is a world first. Tim Cooks says this: China’s quality and quantity of very skilled workforce is totally unmatchable.

It has also gone beyond Engineering to stamp its prowess. It now targets FAM171A2 to treat Parkinson’s disease, has developed lung cancer drug called Ivonescimab (by Akeso) which has been hailed as DeepSeek moment for China’s drug industry, planted electrode chips in brain and spinal cord to help patients walk (Fudan University) and in many areas in agriculture, archaeology, etc.

There is this saying, anything that China goes into will make the product selling at cabbage” prices [白菜价 bái cài jià] in no time. Frightening to the western world indeed!

The West’s paranoia of China knows no bounds…

Biden said this in March 2021: "They [China] have an overall goal to become the leading country in the world, the wealthiest country in the world, and the most powerful country in the world. That's not gonna happen on my watch," He is now gone.

But America’s “might-based” mindset is even more blatant under Trump 2.0. Trump has unveiled the Ugliness of the Americans to the core. To him, everything boils down to DEALS, but he can change his mind in the blink of an eye. Under him, Henry Kissinger’s line of “It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but to be America's friend is fatal” becomes a reality to allies like Canada and in Europe.

The World is now yearning for a Values-based World Order, or Fairness-based World Order! This is a great opportunity for China!

 

IMPACT ON THE WORLD

 

A rising China has terrified the US. Biden’s preoccupation was a direct result of this fear, ditto Trump’s tariff war now.

But Trump is launching the trade war with a bunch of stable boys. We have an idiom in Chinese: 马夫当将军 (mǎ-fū dāng jiāng-jūn), meaning, using horse handlers to act as generals. Peter Navaro, Stephen Miran, Scott Bessent, Pete Hegseth, Kash Patel, and several others are simply nincompoops! Navaro, though a PhD from Harvard, is an academic fraud. His PhD has had nothing to do with macro-economics. Miran’s concept of using tariff to make America great also has many loopholes in argument.

What is confronting the US today is its perceived trade imbalance with the world and the enormity of its national debt. For the former, Trumps thinks he can solve it by bringing manufacturing back to the country. As for the latter, it is an issue of budgetary incomes and expenses. He thinks tariff can solve both these problems.

It is Americans who will pay the tariff. Does Trump know that? Of course he knows! Why then?

It is his “China, China, China finger-pointing blame game again. He wants to corner everyone to force them to kill China with his tariff weapon. Everyone can see the folly of his motive, still the world shakes with fear. The following is a quote from an author called Anne Applebaum:

 “Sometimes the point is not to make people believe in a lie, it is to make people fear the LIAR.”

Small nations fear the LIAR! Many succumbed.

US’s National Debt stands at 36 trillion dollars. Much of it is really owed to US corporations. (Only 30-35% is held by foreigners!) Its interest burden is about 600 billion dollars, or about 16% of its federal budget. The 10-year bond yield is now about 4.5%. Many of its bonds will be maturing soon and new bonds need to be issued.

Some say Trump’s tariff move is an act of a genius. There is this Bond Yield Theory, which says he is deliberately crashing the market and will do a couple of things to refinance the debt with close to zero interest rates. (Supposedly this is his modus operandi: Tariff to give rise to recession, which will cause inflation, causing the demand for capital and yield to go down, this allows him to refinance the debt at lower cost. After that he will introduce stimuli to revive the economy.)

I do not quite buy the theory. Fed is not playing ball with him and there are simply too many uncertainties that are beyond control to make execution possible, even if he has a first-class team.

In his very simplistic mind, he thinks he can use tariffs to rob the world, especially China. Period.

But he risks WAR! The world needs to trade. Remember how did the Chinese century of humiliation begin? (Answer: When Qian Long denied Lord McCartney of England’s access to China’s market.) And why did the Japanese bombed Pearl Harbour?

Crisis is both Threats and Opportunities

Chinese leaders have been schooled in the best of Kung-tze and Sun-tze wisdoms. The former is about statecraft and the latter, war and battle preparations.  

 

得德多助; 失德寡助 Dé dào duō zhù , Shī dào guǎ zhù

站在正义的一方

(Fortune comes to those who act righteously; Disaster falls on those who cause harm to others – One must stand on the right side of history.)

A thorn in the flesh will be removed

Trump’s decoupling madness has accelerated China’s resolve to bring back Taiwan to its fold. Taiwan may just become another province of China, if its ruling party DPP (Democratic Progressive Party) still cannot read the writing on the wall in good time. One thing for certain, though – Taiwan does not need to spend billions on defence anymore.

Once the thorn is removed, peace will return to South China Sea and China can be more generous with its neighbours, maybe even the Philippines, on the geography of the South China Sea.

The world from disorder to a new order

Trump’s term ends in 2029, we do not know who the new President is going to be. But for sure, the US will continue to want to bully China.

But for sure also, China will be able to stare down the bully and 分庭抗礼 [fēn tíng kàng lǐ – act, without reservations, as a full equal] with the US in the global stage.

The Beacon of HOPE will turn dark

The Statue of Liberty has long symbolised HOPE for people to want to have a new life. Now the harsh immigration and deportation policy has put paid to that hope. This will deprive the US of talents from many countries, especially China, which alone accounts for 20-30% of the top echelon of US’s STEM brainpower in universities and industries.

The Hegemon will finally be reined in

The fear for its Military-Industrial-Media complex will be diminished. Chinese Navy’s Blue Ocean capability will be pronounced, and The US cannot call the shots anymore.

The world will more be a Values- or Fairness-based World Order than the present Might-based World Order.

Unbridled Liberal Capitalism will be checked

The oligarchs will no longer have a field day. They need to pay taxes to repay the US’s infrastructure.

The formidability of the Chinese systems will be more widely acknowledged. The way their leaders are selected and decisions based on long-term and posterity considerations are wisdoms that are not to be scorned at anymore. The silliness of the US’s 4-year “emperor” or the Australia’s 3-year election cycles will become more pronounced.

A new architecture will evolve for the Global Financial System

The dollar accounts for 47.1% of world trade today (RMB about 6%), even though the US’s share of the world trade is only 10% (China 15%). By 2030; China is likely to account for 25% of the world trade.

The dollar’s dominance will be greatly diminished, but not totally gone

China has already launched a cross-border interbank payment system (CIPS); its M-Bridge initiative is also in place. They will lay the foundation for this new architecture.

 We might see less volatile, calmer forex. And maybe, a new currency pegging system.

 Other Benefits and Risks to the World

China’s technological and AI prowess will bring better connectivity to the world. As it is TikTok and XiaoHongShu are already helping others to appreciate China’s rise.

 There will be increasing use of China Standards in products, acceptance and advocation of Chinese and integrative medicines.

The international community will certainly want UN, WTO, WHO to be reformed to provide clarity to responsibilities and accountabilities.

If there is no war for the next two years, we should see a more peaceful world after that.

Risks and costs to the lesser Global South

On the other hand, the nature of Chinese innovativeness and productivity is likely to be too domineering and pre-emptive for the rest the world. Many countries may find themselves edged out to become mere commodity providers in the supply chain. This would also be bad for China too.

A delicate balance must be struck.

We need to go into a more complex matrix to do a deeper benefits and risks analysis. The exercise involves political/geopolitical/geostrategic, economic, military, technological, ideological, social dimensions vis-à-vis “Peoples” axes - the Whites; the pseudo-West – Japanese, Koreans, Filipinos, Taiwanese, some ethnic Chinese living in various parts of the world; Muslims – West Asia, Central Asia; India; Global South – neighbouring nations, far-flung countries, differentiating between leader, elites and the masses. They think and act differently.

China is fortunate to have Jeffrey Sachs, George Yeo, Kishore Mahbubani, Hugh White and Keyu Jin, amongst others, to help give unbiased opinions about China, but I don’t believe they have many western followers.

Jeffrey Sachs, a Columbia University thinker, has been telling the world that China is NOT a threat to the world!

But China’s Success model is difficult for others to emulate. Maybe the Singapore model can.

Next, Its Symbolisation to Hua-Yi

I do not use the term to underscore that it is a process, rather than an outcome.

China will prevail in the long run, because it is fighting a global tyrant.

The US containment of China, from the dying days of Trump 1.0, has given Chinese all over the world a never-before-seen wave of “patriotism” or pride and an acceptance of China as their ancestral land [祖国].

Of course, there are still many Chinese, especially disgruntled Hong Kongers and closed-minded Taiwanese, who continue to refuse to accept their heritage.

 A risen China, for sure, will give Chinese all over the world a better berth, socially speaking.

Save for a period when China was in a very pathetic stage (in the 1930s, when China was dirt poor – as dramatised in Pearl S Buck’s Good Earth), the Qing and Mao legacies ingrained many in the West the image of China as an archaic civilisation and Chinese as pigtailed and exude Fu Manchu “image” – sinister, not trustworthy.  JD Vance loudly described Chinese as peasants (when he himself was raised in a broken hillbilly family). Even cultured ones tend to notice Chinese tendency to be casual with personal and public hygiene, smoking in non-smoking areas, and “missing-out’ rushing habits.

The West with their built-in superiority complex is now unable to accept these Blue Ants are equal or better than them,

What do all these mean to Hua Yi?

The Marco Polo admiration can only return when we have totally risen above the Whites.

The more enlightened leaders have understood China’s rise,

But Sinophobia or Yellow Peril will continue in many western mind - Yellow Peri

Chinese in Southeast Asia in particular…

Let us be honest. People generally do not like Chinese – thanks to stereotyping by media and prejudices.

…华裔 and 华侨 distinction

But if your daughter-in-law's 娘家 [niáng jiā – daughter-in-law’s family] is powerful and wealthy, how dare you bully your daughter-in-law?

We used to fear 排华 [pái Huá – mass action to boot out Chinese] this will be a thing of the past…

Wang Gungwu makes a very strong difference between华裔 [Huá yì – ethnic Chinese] and 华侨 [Huá qiáo – overseas Chinese]. We are ethnic Chinese in Malaysia, not overseas Chinese in Malaysia. Our primary loyalty is to the country you live in, not China.

… Education and Entrepreneurship Pursuits

There will be many Tan Li Bu’s and Tan Eng Hock’s in no time.

Instead of going to the UK, Australia and New Zealand, and the US for their university degrees, students can more confidently enrol to study in Chinese universities, especially those who do their secondary in Chinese schools here. Many will continue to pursue higher degrees and work there. Entrepreneurship is just a matter of course.

… Agents of Change and Image Ambassadors

To become a truly admired country and people, China and Chinese still have many formidable miles to run. All of us have read about the recent collapse of a Chinese-built yet-to-complete high-rise in Bangkok after Myanmar was hit by an 8.2 magnitude earthquake. We have also read about the horrible scams in Myawaddy. I live half the time in Melbourne; I could see the huge capital flights – from corruption, I suspect – that is taking place from China there. These are very bad aspects of Chineseness.

We have the good fortune of being ingrained over two millennia with Ru-Dao-Fó (儒, 道, 佛) philosophy and cultural practices, even though we subscribe to different religions. We also have the best of East and West exposures. And many of you possess intimate knowledge of Chinese history and culture. Many of us are at the top of the good chain.

We can perhaps serve as the Change Agents and Image Ambassadors of good Chineseness?

  

CONCLUSION

However, we can hardly predict things beyond the next five years. Xi may no longer be around by then. Megalomaniacs can do stupid things. Hopefully, this will not happen for the next twenty years.

China still has a few last miles to run, if it wants to be convincingly accepted by the world, a need which I have written about in my blog some time ago.

Nonetheless, I am happy to bet on today’s China.

A NOTE ON CHINA’S GEOSTRATEGY

Geo-strategically, there was a theory expounded by someone in the mid-20^th century, which says, "Whoever controls the Rimland rules Eurasia, who rules Eurasia controls the destinies of the world". Eurasia, comprising the landmass of northern and western China, Siberia, and the Stans (including Afghanistan), because of its great tribal and religious diversity will always remain a source of potential flashing point – due to its great cultural and religious diversity.

Wonder why China has to maintain a 1 million strong army?

End

Stop Press:

It is believed that Pakistan's J10Cs have shot down several of India's Rafale fighters in their recent conflict. The western world should now be convinced that Chinese are not producing toys!