Flattening the Curve

Day in and day out we have been hearing experts saying we need to flatten the curve to manage the spread of Covid-19, citing countries or cities’ inability to cope with a huge influx of patients who need ICU or even specific ward beds if this is not done. But few have really explained well the gravity of this need. The impression that one generally gets is that by flattening the curve, you just postpone the numbers to a later date, as shown in Figure 1. Mathematically, the areas under both curves, which are the respective total number of people infected by the disease in each case, appear to be the same. This will mean regardless of measures taken, all countries or cities will suffer the same fate; it is only a matter of time. What is the big deal then?

          

           

Figure 1

Figure 2

 I am not a Mathematician, nonetheless, let me try to explain what I understand.

What many of us do not realise is that the vertical axis is not an arithmetic one; rather it is measured in a logarithmic scale. If the first step is 10, then the next is 100, after that, it is 1,000, then 10,000.

In the case of China, where draconian measures have been taken, the curve has behaved like the lower one, and as of today, after four months, confirmed cases are about 84,000 and death, 4,642. Countries where early preventive measures were taken have also demonstrated similarly or even better. Korea (10,000 and 240 respectively), New Zealand (1,400 and 16 respectively), Australia (6,600 and 67 respectively) and even Malaysia (5,600 and 95 respectively) are examples.

On the other hand, where countries which have allowed the wild horse to bolt, are now suffering the fate that is represented in the upper curve. They do not look frightening on logarithmic scale, but in reality, they are many, many times worse the former group. Classic examples are USA (850,000, 48,000), Spain (213,000, 22,000), Italy (190,000, 25,000), UK (135,000, 18,000), Iran (86,000, 5500) and Turkey (100,000, 2,400). 

Some are optimistic that their new daily cases have peaked; this may be true with most European countries, but I suspect the optimism is a little misplaced, especially in the case of USA, where politics in dealing with this pandemic seems to be tearing the company apart. And there also may be new epicentres cropping out of Asia, as in the possibility of Indonesia, and Africa and South America.

No model of early management is perfect. China’s pill appears most effective, but difficult for most countries to swallow. Korea, New Zealand and Australia are good examples to adopt. But no matter what model one adopts, economic and social costs are always there.

The consequences should have been explained and understood better by the masses before the fire went wild!