On July 6, China
fired an ICBM from a nuclear-powered submarine. The missile is believed to have
been its latest JL-3, which was displayed during the military parade in
September 2024.
The submarine was
most likely a Type 094, or Jin-class, vessel, possibly the improved variant.
A Type 094 can carry
up to 12 ballistic missiles, each capable of carrying up to 10 warheads —
possibly seven nuclear warheads and three decoys. The JL-3 is assessed to have
a range of about 12,000 kilometres and is capable of carrying multiple
warheads. That would allow a Type 094 operating farther into the western
Pacific to threaten the whole of the continental United States.
The missile was
probably launched from a submarine in the Bohai Sea, travelled southeastward
across or close to parts of the Philippines, and then continued over the
western Pacific before its dummy warhead accurately struck a target in the
South Pacific. The estimated flight distance was about 8,000 kilometres.
China has not
released the precise launch coordinates, apogee, detailed ground track or
splashdown coordinates.
Although the full
notification list has not been officially released by China, it probably
informed the US, Japan, Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea, France
(because the splashdown area was relatively close to French Polynesia), and
South Korea. Apparently, countries such as the Philippines, Indonesia, Fiji and
other Pacific island states were not given advance notice.
Protests immediately
sprang up — notably from the US, Japan, Australia and New Zealand.
When questioned,
Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning calmly described the test as
"routine."
To the military
world, however, it was certainly not "routine."
China was serving
notice to the US that it could now strike any part of the United States with
nuclear warheads, not only from mainland China but also from its nuclear
submarines operating well beyond the US's first and second defence chains —
should it choose to do so.
This launch also
served as a stark warning to Japan, which has increasingly acted as the US's
attack dog in countering China. China does not forget the 7 July 1937 Marco
Polo Bridge Incident, which marked the beginning of Japan's invasion of China.
And just look at the timing of the launch.
Victor Gao’s ABC interview
Well-known Chinese commentator Victor
Gao was in his usual combative style when he was interviewed by the ABC's Sarah
Ferguson. Ferguson tried to corner him on several issues, including:
- whether the launch would damage
China's diplomacy in the Pacific;
- why Pacific leaders had condemned
the missile test; and
- whether Australians should view
China's expanding nuclear arsenal with concern.
At the time of the
launch, Australia had just signed a security agreement with Fiji. Victor Gao
flatly dismissed any suggestion that the timing was related. In effect, he was
telling Ferguson not to zì zuò duō qíng (自作多情) — roughly translated as imagining that someone is
interested in you or has romantic feelings for you when, in reality, they do
not. In other words, Australia was not worthy of this particular exhibition.
Given Gao's style,
one can forgive him for his arrogance. He often has to face Western critics who
try to drown him out. If China wanted to strike Australia, it would not need to
use this ICBM. And why would China threaten Australia when it is an important
trading partner — unless, of course, Australia persists with acquiring nuclear
submarines under the AUKUS arrangement, which is explicitly intended to counter
China. In that case, one is asking for trouble.
And why should China
waste its warheads on any of the Pacific island nations unless they voluntarily
choose to serve the US cause?
Certainly Not
Routine
However, Gao was rather wishy-washy
when defending the claim that the launch was "routine." He should
simply have told Ferguson not to be naïve. Surely, when you develop new
military hardware, you have to test it. Indeed, this was reportedly the first
full-range test of this class of missile.
Gao bluntly advised
that no country should ever imagine imposing a nuclear war on China. He said
China possesses nuclear strike capabilities that can reach "any corner, in
any part of the world within 20 minutes or so." It also has enough nuclear
warheads to annihilate any country that dares to wage a nuclear war against
China. And China is certainly not going to reveal the exact size of its nuclear
arsenal.
Remember in September
2024, China's Rocket Force launched an ICBM, believed to have been a DF-31AG,
from Hainan Island using a road-mobile transporter-erector-launcher (TEL)? The missile
reportedly flew about 12,000 kilometres before splashing down at a target in
the South Pacific.
China, in fact,
possesses ICBMs with even longer ranges than this — the DF-41, for example —
which it has little reason to openly demonstrate.
Conclusion
The beginning of the
end of US hegemony is becoming increasingly apparent, thanks both to Donald
Trump and to China's comprehensive advances in science, industry, economics,
global finance, the military and many other fields.
Judging from its
history and the repeated statements of its leaders, we can believe what they
have long been saying:
人不犯我，我不犯人；人若犯我，我必犯人
Rén bù fàn wǒ, wǒ bù fàn rén; rén ruò fàn wǒ, wǒ bì fàn rén.
This famous phrase
is associated with Mao Zedong's articulation of China's principle of
self-defence. It conveys a policy of not initiating aggression but responding
decisively if attacked. Even today, it is frequently quoted in discussions of
Chinese foreign policy and military strategy.
I would like to
return to the attitudes of many Pacific island nations, and indeed many other
countries. They often oscillate between China and the West, depending on
circumstances. The Chinese have a term for such people: jiǔ ròu péng yǒu
(酒肉朋友) — friends who stay around when there
are benefits to enjoy, but disappear when hardship comes or a better
opportunity presents itself.
Do not place too
much hope in others coming to your aid.
End
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