Over Taiwan, War or No War?

Two facts are clear for us to see:

 1.    It is unlikely Joe Biden will get reelected in November 2024. If he doesn’t contest, the Democratic candidate is also unlikely going to win. Save for the stance on China, both Republicans and Democrats will continue to be at each other’s throats.

America’s greatness has already passed its peak. Few believe in its championship about democracy anymore. But its Military-industrial complex and the US dollar will still hold sway for a couple of years. American hegemony has still to be respected – even by the intellectually very refined leaders like Lee Hsien Loong in Singapore!

2.    Taiwan will hold its presidential election in early 2024; Tsai cannot run for a third term. A new president will be inaugurated. The new president is likely to be from DPP and a male.

Because of history – Japanese benevolence during its occupation of the island, the Kuomintang terror during the initial years of Chiang Kai-shek’s rule, a poor perception of mainland China for the large part of the second half of the 20^th century, etc, as much as 80% of the Taiwan’s population does not want to come under China at this time.

But the majority of Chinese all over the world wants to see China remerging as one big, advanced and prosperous “nation” that they can ethnically and culturally identify themselves with. That “nation” can accommodate different political systems for all they care.

       Unfortunately, Tsai is determined to resist that.

Now until 2024…

To me, the most dangerous period in the West Pacific is between now and sometime in 2024.

Biden has shown again and again that his one-China talk is without genuineness. He will continue to egg on the politicians in the US, regardless of their party colours – to visit Tsai Ing-wen whenever they like. His hyenas in Japan and Europe will also volunteer to do so too. Tsai is happy to see any tom-dick-and-harry and hand out “angpows” to them.

Chinese leadership is also convinced that it is a waste a time talking to Biden and his team – Blinken, Sullivan, Yellen, Tai and the rest. But being Chinese, they will still take their calls.

But sooner or later, one of these prickings on China’s historical sores will cause China to lose its cool and finally act.

Militarily, China is all ready, but it does not want to cause civilian deaths. The strike it hopes to achieve, I suppose, will be surgical and the people of Taiwan will be awed to accept the outcome. The questions are:

Will US intervene?

I doubt it will do so directly. But they will most definitely do what they have done (and are still doing) to Russia in the wake of the Ukraine war – providing arms and imposing sanctions. Chinese can all die, does Biden care?

Arms support to Taiwan will not be an issue. But sanctions can be lethal, especially if the Straits of Malacca is blocked, and SWIFT acts. China does not have many commodities and enough oil and gas of its own to sustain too long a confrontation. But belt-tightening and “eating-bitter” are the stock-in-trade of Chineseness.

Will the US allies intervene?

Only one country, i.e., Japan. Kishida has no sense of history. He is determined to revive Japan’s military glory. The rest – Australia, the US and some European countries? I suspect it will be all Red Indian shouts. (Australia might. During World War II, it was the only country that fought a decent battle against the Japanese in the then Malaya theatre (Bakri/Parit Sulong), when the Brits were retreating all the way to Singapore without firing a shot. They also sent thousands and thousands to Europe during World War I. Japan bombed Darwin, but hardly any Australian remember that!)

After 2024…

Looking at all the contenders, I don’t see there is any chance that the next president of Taiwan will be a female. The profiles of the leading contenders convince me that none of them will be audacious enough to act like Tsai. Chances are they will help to revive the 1992 Consensus. China will try to be accommodating as long as Taiwan is happy to come under or be associated with the Great China umbrella.

The US is likely to be a lame duck – politically, economically, technologically, militarily and intellectually – by then. Hopefully, more Jeffrey Sachs will emerge. Otherwise, globalisation will be killed for good and the world will certainly suffer, thanks to American leaders’ stupidity.