SCO – Ushering in a New World Order?

The Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) which is a Eurasian political, economic and security organisation is the successor to the Shanghai Five, a mutual security agreement formed in 1996 between China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan.

It welcomed Uzbekistan in 2001 and went on to expand to call itself SCO – with deeper political and economic cooperation – in 2002. Its membership has since expanded to include India, Pakistan and, in the last meeting, Iran, with several countries engaged as observers or dialogue partners.

While NATO is all about a White military alliance largely dictated by the United States to counter Russia, SCO is nothing of that nature. But obviously it will serve as an important political counterweight to the constant war cries of NATO.

Interestingly, there are several adversaries in the organisation – chiefly the on-and-off uneasy relationship between China and India, the hostility between India and Pakistan, the Shaia and Sunni divide between Iran and a dialogue partner Saudi Arabia, and the friction between dialogue partners Armenia and Azerbaijan.

It is a mini-Eurasian United Nations. With its “dialogue” charter in place, its sustainability should not be in doubt, particularly with the level-headedness and goodwill of Xi Jinping, who has now been considered as the person who can help subdue America’s hegemony.

When Soviet Union collapsed, Putin, being a European, was trying to pivot Russia to the West. But he was rebuffed by his own kind. The expansion of NATO was ugly; the last straw being Zelenskyy’s blatant mission for Ukraine to join the organisation. Ukraine is at Russia’s doorstep; and its neo-Nazi soldiers were outright hostile to Russian-speaking pockets in Ukraine.

And Biden was egging Zelenskyy on to fight Russia. The “military operation”, a term which Putin used to invade Ukraine is now in progress. As in most autocratic countries, Putin might not have the benefit of good lieutenants. He might have been given false information by those who are close to him and have therefore underestimated the resolve of Ukrainians to fight Russia, even though Zelenskyy is himself a Jew and most Ukrainians are Russians are of the same stock.

At the point of writing, the war is not going terribly well for Russia, even though it has captured some parts of East and South Ukraine.

However, the West’s (and countries from the East as well) sanctions have not crippled Russia economically, thanks to the fact that it is a big producer of oil and gas, grains, and many valuable minerals. Instead, Much of Europe, which is so dependent on Russia’s natural gas, is suffering from the sanctions. Its politicians are now calling for their citizens to save energy, as if it is just a temporary toothache or diarrhea, which can be overcome with some over-the-counter medicine. Their ability to think is shocking, and their actions largely infantile. Just imagine, at this juncture, they have the cheek to insist on a price cap for Russia’s gas, when Putin is bent on shutting the valves of its gas pipelines to Europe.

Former German chancellor Angela Merkel had spent years to plan and build Nord Stream 2. She fully understood the need for her country to have a reliable supply of natural gas from Russia. (Some 25% of Germany’s energy need is dependent on natural gas.) But the present chancellor Olaf Scholz is certainly a weakling and had no clue what the word “strategy” means. Several governments have already fallen, but it is not clear if this is understood by some incumbents in the continent. (Hungary and Serbia certainly do; but they were branded “less than democratic” by their fellow Europeans. The EU seems to be nose-leading to the slaughterhouse. On the other hand, Biden, who is the chief instigator of all these ills, is laughing all the way to the bank!

This setback might have subdued Putin to some extent. In recent months, he appeared to be counting more and more on China, even though his relationship with Xi has already been solid for several years. He and Xi are now the key leaders in SCO.

SCO is likely to make a huge part of the Eurasian continent the new economic centre of gravity.

Russia’s Siberia has been neglected for centuries. But it contains rich black soil which is most conducive for large scale agriculture. Unfortunately, the population there is small and infrastructure poor. Hitherto, Russia has always considered itself a European nation, and has always been weary or suspicious of China. With the present reality or realization, Putin is more amenable to look East and China is the only country that can help make this shift possible. In the recent SCO do, Xi, Putin and the president of Mongolia Ukhnaagiin Khürelsükh have held a special session amongst the three. This might usher in a continuous market stretching from China to Mongolia and all the way to Russia, with countries in Central Asia, India, Saudi Arabia, Iran, and several others playing a complementary role. This will spell the end of US hegemony and the importance of European Union in the world’s economic equation.

To the West, I am reminded of this proverb: 一失足成千古恨, which roughly translates as “A false step brings thousands of years of regrets”. China can thank Biden for that.