A new order is fast taking shape in East Asia.
On May 17, Putin visited China. It is obvious that they were tired of America and its allies and are determined to dethrone America as the hegemon of the world. Putin also lay flowers at a Harbin monument to fallen Soviet soldiers who had fought for China against the Japanese during the second Sino-Japanese war, when Japan occupied parts of China. The message to Japan cannot be clearer.
On June 19, Putin visited North Korea – first time in 24 years – and signed a mutual defence agreement with Kim Jong Un. Kim has openly pledged to supply munitions to Russia in its war against Ukraine and Russia says it is no longer bound by the UN sanctions and will help to advance its nuclear pursuits.
Immediately after Pyongyang, Putin flew to Vietnam and was lavishly received there. Putin said he wanted to build a "reliable security architecture" in the Asia-Pacific region.
And hot on the heels, Daniel Kritenbrink, the U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs, touched down in Hanoi. He was there to meet with senior Vietnam government officials to “underscore the strong U.S. commitment to implementing the US-Vietnam Comprehensive Strategic Partnership and to working with Vietnam in support of a free and open Indo-Pacific region.”
Kritenbrink’s visit speaks volumes of the impotence of Antony Blinken’s State Department. Blinken knows only how to eat China or Russia’s dust!
A couple of
days earlier…
On June 17, a highly charged stand-off
was played out between the Chinese coast guard and Filipino navy personnel near
Ren’ai Reef (Second Thomas Shoal) in South China Sea. A Filipino marine was
injured. White House and State Department condemned China’s alleged conduct at
the shoal as “escalatory and irresponsible actions.” However, Lucas
Bersamin, the executive secretary of the Philippines (who reports direct to
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr) said, “We are not yet ready to consider this as
an armed attack.” The incident was
“probably a misunderstanding or accident,” Bersamin said.
Ditto Marcos Jr himself. He appears to be backing down – with tail between legs.
The incident occurred only two days after China’s coast guard began enforcing a new regulation authorizing its personnel to intercept and detain foreign boats and crews suspected of “trespassing” its waters in the South China Sea. Obviously, Marcos Jr was trying to test China’s resolve.
Why this tone?
The Filipinos were counting on American warships to come to their rescue. (US aircraft carrier The Theodore Roosevelt is in the region.) They never came! And lurking not far away were eight mighty Chinese warships!
Fear of losing his late father’s ill-gotten billions in the US and the need to have a bogeyman to drum up support for his second-term ambition, Marcos has reduced himself to be at Biden administration’s beck and call. He should have consulted fellow ASEAN leaders how to walk the China-US tightrope, i.e., bank on China and pay lip service to the US!
China simply does not want American warships to be hanging around the South and East China Seas. (It needs the depths of the South China Sea to operate its submarines.) China is happy to share the marine resources in the disputed islands and waters with the claimants if they agree to work with it. By choosing to shoot his own foot, Marcos Jr is depriving his country of tourist dollars and a huge market for its produce.
China is changing its response...
Earlier in the month, a Dutch frigate Tromp was
chased by two Chinese fighter jets in East China Sea when it claimed to be “enforcing
maritime sanctions” on North Korea.
Remember in May last year, a Chinese plane promptly cut across the path
of an American RC-135 surveillance aircraft over the South China Sea, forcing
the latter to fly through its wake turbulence. China was fed up with America’s long-term
and frequent actions of sending ships and planes to conduct close surveillance
on China! And in May this year, a Chinese jet fired flares in the path of Australia’s
Seahawk helicopter as it flew above the Yellow Sea. Australia said it was doing
a UN sanctions surveillance mission! Really?
In November last year, a U.S. guided-missile destroyer and Canadian frigate sailed through the Taiwan Strait. China could only shadow them.
(Incidentally, the Turkish warship Kinaliada is now visiting Japan to commemorate the 100th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between the two nations and the 134th anniversary of the tragic legacy of the Ertugrul frigate’s voyage, which became the starting point of Turkish-Japanese friendship and goodwill. Along the way, the ship called on many ports, including Hong Kong. Turkey is a member of NATO. What is Recep Tayyip Erdoğan trying to achieve?)
US leaders are fast losing their credibility, and much cannot be undone. A new order is emerging to counter American hypocrisy. China is serving “no more nonsense” notice to the West and their eunuchs in the region. A Russian warship has just sailed into Cuba, and it carries Russia’s prized hypersonic missiles. And Thailand and Malaysia are applying to join BRICS.
For the Americans, the presidential election in November will be a Hobson’s choice for them: A semi-demented man? Or an unscrupulous peacock?
Hopefully, all these “freedom of navigation” pretensions or excuses will cease after that.
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ReplyDeleteHere's hoping others will also comment in this blog.....
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ReplyDeleteThe Biden administration is only interested in selling arms to Taipei and reinforcing its military supply chains in Japan, Australia and South Korea.
The US Congress is jittery about expanding its budget to make more diplomacy-oriented investments in Asia. In fact, Kritenbrink and Burns are having a hard time making a case for continued US presence in the region since their US has become more autocratic by way of primary and secondary sanctions based on its own overriding interests. Which are also not served by slapping porous Raimondo tariffs onto other countries at inflationary costs to US consumers and its petrodollar, especially those in its growing pyramidal base.
There is also voter resistance to giving more aid to Ukraine and Israel; at the same time, the South Pacific islanders have already seen the US does not walk its talk. And while the Philippines economy is growing from tourism and semiconductor assembly, it has not seen much capital goods and infrastructure investments.
Meanwhile, Marcos, jr is indeed in the limelight of seeing his US 'not turning up'; Biden is not anytime going to wade ashore with pipe between lips all the way from his enclave, even less likely Trump. Modi, Lai, Kishida and Yoon should be more wary of US sales talks from now on.
Albanese should just stick to iron, wine and lobsters; since he wants China to buy these that China has been doing so voluminously before which also means there was never any threat to 'freedom of navigation', his administration should ask how that US-inserted reason could possibly have stood up at all in an Asia which has been trading and shipping all along until the advent of US fearmongering.
All in Asia must take note what was revealed by Wesley Clark, ex-Pentagon and Nato chief. He said US foreign policy was usurped by a group of war-hawks, namely Bush, jr, Rumsfeld, Cheney, Wolfowitz et al since the days of the Iraq invasion who had wanted to expand US military hegemony in the Middle East.
Today, the tradition of foisting regime change and chaos seeding for ends post-conflict reconstruction is being carried out by others and expanded beyond military ends to trade and geostrategic interests but pegged to a waning dollar brand equity.
If Trump comes onboard, he could well deputize Lighthizer, Navarro, Colby, Rubio and Cotton, not to forget Krishnamoorti and Khanna. These are anti-China to an extreme who will twist facts to achieve negative-sum objectives but bring down global trade and jobs-creation across board, not to forget torpedo all green-transition programs.
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ReplyDeleteThe US basically does not have an anti-China exit strategy. It says it cannot change Beijing so what does it want to do after its total decoupling from China?
Will it include oven toasters and washing machines next to be banned after harbor cranes, train carriages, medical generics and electric vehicles? Will it tariff the hundreds of other countries to which China can reshore its manufacturing for re-exports to the US? Will the US industrial makers which depend on China sub-supplies of parts and components mount a contraindicative case against the US commerce dept on what it is slamdunk doing which harm their bottomlines and thus survival especially when Biden and even Trump are talking about US industrial policy revival?
If this is already happening in the west, think what is happening in the east which does not give the US the luxury of interfering in Asian affairs whose interference is exactly what is causing the tensions that the US says it wants to avoid. After all, how can Asian countries buy more door-busting Boeing's if they conflare?
It remains to mention a Chinese surgeon in Italy had conducted a transcontinental surgical removal by robotic arms of a cancerous prostrate from a patient in Beijing. This was done using 5G communications which had achieved only 135 milliseconds latency when the norm was 200 milliseconds. If this precision over such a large distance can be considered a technological breakthrough in application, think what can also be achieved by remote control of thousands of airdropped military robots.
To avoid wasteful war-games, the US should consider full-specturm cooperation over and beyond counter-productive competition. After all, it still does not have any grand strategy that can answer for itself, "so, what's next after the fight?" Just don't ask the likes of Raimondo and Colby to answer; it's beyond their paygrade.
Beijing must however be careful. The US is using Sun Tzu combined with its prussian counterattack strategy; it watches, learns, resources, waits and then hits with double objectives - to destroy totally and humiliate completely.