I remember an old western film starring Clint Eastwood, Lee Van Cleef and Eli Wallach – three gunslingers competing to find a fortune in a buried cache of Confederate gold amid the violent chaos of the American civil war in a movie called The Good, the Bad and the Ugly. I cannot remember the plot, but the title has stuck in my mind. Reflecting the players of the geopolitics of today, I thought it might be a good title for me to write about some of the world’s political leaders, but with an addition to the cast: the “Outright Stupid”.
Let me start with America’s incoming president, Donald
Trump:
Donald 2.0 and his nominees
I love Chinese idioms. There is one that parallels “A leopard cannot change its spots” which reads 江 山 易 改, 本 性 难 移 (Jiāng shān yì gǎi; běn xìng nán yí), which literally says it is easier to change mountains and rivers than to alter one's character. Many Chinese characters share more or less the same pronunciation. 姓 (xìng) and 性 (xìng) are two of them. The former stands for surname (or family name) and the latter, one’s moral character. There is a line of wisdom connecting these two words here. One can easily change one’s identity to hide past embarrassments or misdeeds, but one’s true character will always remain. You can this time call Donald 2.0, but the fact remains, he is the same Donald in his true self.
Except Donald 2.0’s ugliness is going to be even harsher.
Let us look at some of Trump’s nominees for his 2.0 team:
Many of them are outright not fit for high offices, but Susie Wiles might be an exception. In his first term, Trump changed his chief of staff four times, one of whom was a four-star general and the other three were politically pretty high-powered. This time around he has picked Susie Wiles to fill the hot seat. Wiles has previously managed several politicians’ election campaign, including Trump’s. There is not much about her political stances. I suppose she will survive in her gatekeeper role longer than her predecessors.
The most controversial of his choices so far is Matt Gaetz, the Florida lawmaker, who has been nominated to be the country’s Attorney General. Like Trump, he is, to our sense of commonsense justice, a felon. (The US House Ethics Committee’s investigation into his alleged sexual misconduct, illicit drug use and misuse of campaign funds. Trump is obviously trying to tell the America’s present judiciary who the boss really is.)
Trump has also picked a leading critic of China, Republican Representative Mike Waltz, to be his national security adviser. Waltz has often criticized China’s activity in the Asia-Pacific and has voiced the need for the United States to be ready for a potential conflict in the region with China.
Trump’s pick of Florida Senator Marco Rubio to be the Secretary of State is certainly most concerning to China. Rubio is a Cuban American who holds a biblical hatred for anything “communist”. To him, “Communist” China poses the greatest threat to American workers, families, and communities. He had labelled Trump a "con artist" in an earlier primary and passed some nasty remarks on Trump’s attitude towards women. Will Trump really forgive him for making those “aberrations”?
I believe Rubio has never stepped foot on China and is still thinking that China is a Stalinist world – totally authoritarian, oppressive of the minorities and aggressive towards its neighbours. He naturally supports the DPP leaders in Taiwan. Rubio’s support for Hong Kong democracy protesters earned him Chinese sanctions in 2020.
Nominated as Defense Secretary is Pete Hegseth, who is a Fox News anchor. He is said to have serious character issues. And Robert F Kennedy Jr, a vaccine sceptic has been named for the Health portfolio. However, I believe the latter, though idealistic in nature, is a good man at heart.
Everyone knows Elon Musk; he is a buddy of Trump. Musk will be Trump’s point man in his effort to turn things upside down. His pick of young Hindu-American billionaire Vivek Ramaswamy to be Musk’s deputy does raise some eyebrows. The latter is someone who wheels and deals in a manner that are usually more than meets the eye. (Remember, he himself harbours presidential ambitions.)
Trump rewards those who are loyal to him regardless of situations and is vindictive to those who have “betrayed” him. His defence lawyer John Sauer as the solicitor general and Tulsi Gabbard as the director of national intelligence are cases in point in respect of the former category; and Mike Pompeii and Nikki Haley are examples of the latter.
Steven Cheung is the sole yellow-skin Trump has named to his team. He is going to be Trump’s director of Communications. There is also a press secretary; I do not know how they can separate their duties. Maybe “director of Communications” is the more gloried term for Cheung when he escorts Trump around.
Despite his popularity, Trump is an outlier. His unconventionality may ruffle the Deep State’s feathers if it cuts too much into the latter’s grand scheme of things. And the power of the Deep State may prove to be too great for him to survive.
One
thing is clear: Trump is indeed predictable. He is Dennis the Menace. He really
has no concept about how to make America great again; his MAGA slogan is
designed to make the vulnerable and ignorant, who comprise maybe 60% of the
country’s population, place hope on him as their solution to the state America
is today. But they refuse to see or seem oblivious to his meanness. (Her own
niece authored a book about him and tells us how nasty the man is, even to his
close relatives.) Those who have been following his business “achievements”
know they were built on the very weaknesses of America’s wheeling and dealing
culture, not on a foundation of good corporate practices. Character quality is
no issue to him, as long as they are happy to do his biddings. He will sack
anyone who tries to be too clever. (Remember the number of “professionals” and
“experts” he sacked during his first term? Most Biden appointees stayed with
him through his four years.) He hates intellectually looking women – people
like Hillary Clinton and Ursula von der Leyen – and loves erotically dressed
women, not necessary the pretty looking type, though.
And the outright stupid…
 |
| Where is Joe? |
In the world today, there are many who also fall into this category. Just a couple of days ago, France’s Emmanuel Macron and the UK’s Keir Starmer in Armistice Day ceremony, pledged to support Ukraine for as long as necessary “to thwart Russia’s war of aggression”. Doesn’t armistice mean “an agreement made by opposing sides in a war to stop fighting for a certain time, or a truce? Didn’t Trump say he was going to end the war “in one day”? And we just heard that Zelenskyy is about to give up? What are these two morons up to?
Von der Leyen lost no time in congratulating Trump but what did she get from Trump? A cold thank you! By doing everything to decouple from China, she is going to bring more hardship to EU countries during the next four years. A dumb blonde indeed!
The biggest loser is going to be Volodymyr Zelenskyy. His life might even be in danger. The war will end soon, but much destruction has already been done to Ukraine. It is time for Ukrainians to realize the folly of trying to upset their Russian cousins with their NATO and EU membership pursuits. You should live with your neighbours and cousins who, in the first place, had not caused you miseries, unlike those who suffered in the Baltic satellites in the Soviet time.
The smarter ones…
Trump
will be asking to see them, and countries like Singapore will be most happy to
play host to such meetings.
Trump’s presidency will not be generous to anyone. For many leaders in Southeast Asia, West Asia, Africa and Latin and South America, they have already seen enough of the true colours of American leadership during the last eight years. They know which side of their bread is best buttered and are likely to chart their own destinies.
And those who are stuck
I am no expert in the histories of other pre-modern states. However, as a student of leadership studies, I do take pride in my understanding of the ups-and-downs of China and what it is today.
Historically and culturally speaking, China has been around – continuously – for five thousand years. It has gone through many tumultuous times – civil wars, foreign occupations, calamities that caused widespread famine and disease, etc. A ruler is expected to rule with 仁 (ren – humaneness, kindness, benevolence), i.e., a tall degree of moral conduct. When a ruler lost his “mandate of heaven”, he would be overthrown, usually in a bloody way, and a new ruler would rose. This concept of Mandate of Heaven is often attributed to Confucius. However, the credit should actually go to Zhou-gong.
Zhou-gong was Duke Wen of Zhou (周文公, Zhou Wen-kong; personal name Dan 旦 1042–1035 BC). He was member of the royal family of the early Zhou (周) dynasty who played a key role in consolidating the kingdom established by his elder brother. He was renowned for acting as a capable and loyal regent for his young nephew King Cheng (周成王) and establishing firm-rule of the Zhou dynasty over eastern China. Confucius credited him for the authorship of the I-ching (易經 – Scripture ) and the Xer-ching (詩経 - Classic Poetry), as well as the establishment of the Rites of Zhou.
King Wu died three years after founding the dynasty and the throne was passed to his youngest son King Cheng. Zhou-gong became the regent and administered the kingdom. Zhou-gong was credited with the introduction of the doctrine of the Mandate of Heaven. (The preceding dynasty – Shang – was plagued by injustice and decadence and so had offended Heaven leading to its downfall.) It is said that he administered the kingdom with great benevolence and once King Cheng came of age, Zhou-gong stepped down. The later rulers considered Zhou-gong a paragon of virtue and honoured him posthumously and one even elevated Zhou-gong to be the 文宪王 (Wénxiàn Wáng or King of Cultural Exemplariness). He was also known as the First Sage (元圣, Yuán Shèng). (In 2004, Chinese archaeologists reported that they may have found his tomb complex in Shaanxi.) In the Analects, Confucius is said to have said, "How I have gone downhill! It has been such a long time since I dreamt of the Duke of Zhou." This was meant as a lamentation of how the governmental ideals of the Zhou-gong had faded. In short, Zhou-gong is said to exemplify the highest form of benevolence and people-first philosophy in statecraft. These were the sage rulers!
Xi Jinping is a modern-day Zhou-gong. And China’s reemergence to help balance bring hope to the Global South is just the beginning.
1/n
ReplyDeleteOf Voltaire, France's greatest man of letters, Goethe, Germany's greatest poet, once wrote:
Reason, sensibility, philosophy, elevation, originality, nature, intellect, fancy, rectitude, facility, flexibility, precision, art, abundance, variety, fertility, warmth, magic, charm, grace, force, an eagle sweep of vision, vast understanding, instruction rich, tone excellent, urbanity, suavity, delicacy, correctness, purity, cleanness, eloquence, harmony, brilliancy, rapidity, gaiety, pathos, sublimity and universality—perfection indeed—behold Voltaire.”
Trump? the opposite, presumably. In fact, Greenstein of Princeton suggested six qualities that bear on presidential performance. They are: public communication, organisational capacity, political skill, vision, cognitive style, and emotional intelligence.
He opined Trump scores low on all except for public communication (read: lies) and political skill (read: mass manipulation); those skills were practiced by no less than Goebbels who said: “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it."
And their belief in him which has swept him into high office after two dramas in the mould of Sky TV's The Day Of The Jackal (psst: weekly episodes 6 & 7 of Season 1 a click away - now) will enable him to roll out the biggest mass deconstruction of US institutions, apexed in the US Supreme Court whose composition has been tilted by his first-term appointments of like-minded Kavanaugh and Barrett; as President-elect and with all three wings of the government under him, he will no doubt next fill the other posts being vacated by two retiring judges, thus paving the way for him to be not just President but also El Presidente, tefloned from all prosecutions of his past misdemeanours and paving the way for him to install the most right-wing conservative protectorate in American history since the days of the Roman Empire.
While his campaign to make America Great Again may carry a point or two, it will come at cost of seeding institutional chaos which in turn provides the very justifying excuse to grab more political power in the land of so-called democracy, thus self-reinforcing his core craving for reality-tv mass adulation.
That craving can be understood; enriched by his father's legacy, he went bust 6 times to the extent of even going broke running cash-cow casinos while stiffing payments to his suppliers, preening by allusion how smart was a relative in MIT, and saying as a property developer, it's all about construction, thus that Wall, however unfinished for being tunnelable, and yet Mexico has failed to pay for it. That's why by climbing to the land's highest office, he can now claim instant erasure of his past failures before the eyes of his frenzied supporters.
Today, this Wharton product, albeit of charlatanry not wall-street sell-side analysis, is ready to unleash the most disruptive force in global trade policy based on questionable tactics that remain the nightmare not just of world leaders but also bankers, traders and industrialists who think he is likely to do what he, fed on cheeseburgers and fringy tv news, has promised in his campaigns, all without facts and reasoning but only made up inchoately as only a perambulating Jack Sparrow might. To wit? the antithesis of his German roots. Except for a certain OCD fastidiousness.
Could it all be his poker play charade at the art of the deal by disrupting the cards table so as to pre-scare others to foist give-away concessions before sealing MOUs?
Alas for him, he forgets in the case of China which is his primary target for all blames, the Chinaman who is behind you as you enter through the hotel revolving door miraculously appears in the lobby in front of you. So said of the Shanghainese. China has more others; he has yet to meet a Fujianese. And the Teochew is on reserve.
2/n
ReplyDeleteMeanwhile, Trump has picked the following:
Marco Rubio (state); Howard Lutnick (commerce); Matt Gaetz (AG); Peter Hegseth (defense); Tulsi Gabbard (intelligence); Robert F Kennedy, Jr (health); Michael Walz (national) Kristi Noem (homeland) security; Thomas Homan (border); Elon Musk & Vivek Ramaswamy (efficiency); Lee Zeldin (environment); Susie Wiles (whitehouse); Elsie Stefanik (UN); Douglas Burgum (interior); Linda McMohon (education); John Radcliffe (CIA).
At time of going to LYB Press, the following have not been filled – Kash Patel (FBI); Lighthizer (trade/treasury); Kevin Warsh, Marcus Rowan, William Hagerty, Scott Bessent (treasury).
In any case, Trump rewards supporters, so behind Lutnick will be Lighthizer behind whom Navarro behind whom Bannon; all four are unreconstructed anti-China tariff-men and decouplers.
Unlike Xi’s technocrats who have already displayed publicly recorded achievements on their way up, it is apparent the abovenamed are just Trump loyalists who happen to be chosen because they are trumpeteers and Trump is insecure, thus needing yes-men who will toe his line and do as he has promised to his voters who remain bestirred and clueless to a fault on all important matters, and plainly too lazy to research and think through more thoroughly; even Musk almost came undone with Tesla and SpaceX but for a subsidy.
Furthermore, Trump has just asked his Vance to prevail upon the bipartisan Ethics Committee not to make public any report after it investigates Gaetz and Hegseth on their peccadilloes. What is there to hide if one is to be publicly answerable – unless there is and one isn’t.
Yes, Pax Americana by Trump’s Zeitenwende march is fast turning into Pax Egoisticusa.
3/n
ReplyDeleteThe other tedious note is on trade balance, tariff and decoupling. Trump is under the mistaken notion trade deficits can be reduced and more jobs created by just tariffing imports.
However doing so will instead cause tariffed exporters to reshore to other countries so that as long as the US imports to consume, its overall trade balance is not reduced.
Is Trump to tariff those other countries next? As a major consumer economy, the US will soon have to tariff every other country which exports into it who have reshored assets from the tariffed countries.
The result will be the US ends up isolating itself by tariffing itself in effect; at the same time, its own exports won’t find ready markets in other countries which will seek friendlier substitutes.
As for jobs, the last time Trump did it, US overseas companies moved their assembly lines to other countries instead of their US and absorbed his tax reductions in share buy backs. By example, the US steel and aluminium industry remains subdued despite protectionist tariffs.
There is historical precedent in the Smoot–Hawley Tariff of 1930; the US tariffed 40% of imports; other countries retaliated with their own tariffs; global trade crashed by 65% and the US exacerbated its own Great Depression; in the post-crisis aftermath starting 1938, the trade-to-GDP ratio was 20% lower than what it was in 1929. Everyone suffered.
Some may argue that during Biden’s carry-on of Trump’s first-term tariffing, the US economy grew. But that’s ignoring the economic growth came from pent-up consumerism by spending covid-dispensed helicopter money, debt-inflating tax reduction, government projects, and oil and arms exports to Europe.
Moreover, it’s a given that richer countries will face manufacturing job declines because their output per worker grows faster in manufacturing than in services by dint of automation and systems replacing workers, and secondly, people will spend more in services than on manufactures as they become richer – whatever the trade balance.
But this will unfortunately be lost on Wharton-trained Trump et al who thinks for the US, it should still be in the 50s.
The bromide is simple – Trump should ask Lighthizer and Lutnick to survey how many rustbelt workers are still unemployed owing to jobs emigrating overseas by globalization.
If the US economy is said to be humming, all would already be employed so why the need to tariff imports for purpose of creating jobs by import substitution for them?
In fact, they may lose their present jobs when US tariffs make their purchases pricier, inflation comes back post-Powell to trigger higher interest rates and thus magnify financing costs and reduce new investments amidst retaliation by other countries.
European plants are already mulling to move to the US to avoid Trump’s 10-20% preannounced tariffs but what be their workers?
The world is too integrated down to supply-chain nerve endings for Trump’s madcap trumponomics.
4/4
ReplyDeleteWhether it be Biden or Trump, the US is in a diddly-squat mess.
On the other hand, across the oceans, China remains consistent, calm and collected.
Xi told Biden but for the ears of Trump ahead that China’s four redlines must not be crossed – Taiwan, sovereignty, system and development – and these redlines are canopied in the context of US-China relations by two remits – that China harbors no direct intention to displace the US, and that mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation must form the underpinning principles of healthy and progressive relations.
However, one is not naïve to think the US vulgarians can fathom the depth of these practicalities.
This means China may hope for the best from the US but be prepared for worse to come. She has already been doing so since 2012.
Many moons ago, I was in an SME hub in Dalian. The toner maker said two things – that he was upgrading with new machinery for value-adding, and that it’s all about supply chains.
Despite roiling turmoil, China has reemerged again and again. The Chinese are proud survivors and verdant pragmatists. Of the last 20 out of 22 centuries, China was the biggest economy in the world; in 1820 alone, China comprised one third of the world’s GDP, more than the US and Europe combined.
Maybe that’s why the lion still roars:
https://tinyurl.com/yb9depse
Your second 'Xing' should read gender and not character.
ReplyDelete