A conman is back to be America's next president! Any surprises at all?
Not at all. The mainstream media has been saying that it was going to be a close fight. It was clear to me that Trump would carry the day. The mainstream media are just trying desperately to sway voters to Harris’s side. (I always argue that the Democrats are too dumb, intellectually so for that matter, to know that 70% of Americans so not make use of their brain!) It appears that the Republicans would also control both the Senate and the House of Representatives!
With Trump returning, the world has to prepare for the worst, China especially. It is not that I prefer Harris, I thought her Ha-ha blonde inadequacy would be the lesser of the two evils for China and by extension, for the world too. But with the outcome known, maybe I should try to find some positive things about Trump’s incoming presidency.
Yes, it was Trump who woke the Chinese up; maybe his new term will also awaken the rest of the world – not only the Global South which have more or less known the true colours of Americanism, but also its Ukraine, EU, NATO, pro-West allies like Japan, Korea, the Philippines, Argentina, semi-ally like India, and “wedlock child” pseudo-state like Taiwan. Israel is perhaps the only exception; regardless of Democrats or Republicans, the Jews are the first amongst equals in the USA!
The US has become a very strange country. It has the best universities in the world; yet, 70% of its population knows very little of anything that is outside America. Its politicians are largely humbugs even though many are alumni of Harvard or Yale or other Ivy League universities. The more outrageous Trump spoke, the more popular he emerged.
Trump the Lion King
He knows many western leaders do not accord him with any great regard. (Even a minion like Justin Trudeau would dare to belittle behind his back.) He is going to kick them hard. And Narendran Modi be aware: Trump will rush to the toilet to wash himself if you give him a hug.
Trump’s way of making America great again
As of October 29, 2024, the U.S. national debt is $35.85 trillion. The cost of servicing the U.S. federal debt is $1,133 billion, which is 17% of the total federal spending. (But as a country, the United States is actually still very wealthy. Its national wealth is estimated to be around $137.6 trillion.) Instead of getting the rich to pay more taxes, he will continue to borrow to fund the federal needs. He will surely continue to count on the US Dollar to harvest the world by printing more money and manipulating interest rates.
But it is already too late
They have few shipyards to produce ships now, let alone big-ticket naval vessels. Ditto the situation with their fighter jets. Soon they might have to tout them as flying coffins.
Devoid of a strong determination to increase national productivity, America’s decline will surely accelerate.
Philosophy and Missions
America leaders generally do not demonstrate that they can conduct themselves or lead with a head and heart that is anchored on philosophy. Good philosophy is driven by virtue, which is usually a life-long belief. Trump’s “Make American Great Again” and Biden’s “America First” are not philosophically anchored; rather, they are mere slogans. (Malaysia, under Anwar Ibrahim, has also come up with a set of values called MADANI, which stand for Prosperity, Respect, Trust and Compassion. He seeks to transform society through Economy and Finance, Legislation, Institution, Education, Community, Culture, Urban and Rural Developments. But given the country’s racial and religious entrenchments, these again may just not be executable. They are largely empty pledges!)
Biden’s mission, though not expressly spelt out, was to retard China. And his team, led by Antony Blinken went all out to create a Mafia fraternity to break China. But as the country’s top diplomat, Blinken appears like a headless chicken, hopping from country to country but bringing back nothing. Janet Yellen is a has-been economics professor. Gina Raimondo’s sanctions are driven by her hatred of China, not foresight or strategy. Katherine Tai wants to show that she is whiter than the whites. As for Llyod Austin, in our jargon, he is a dai-funshi (big, sweet potato),
Against a sage-like leader in China, and against the strength and depth of China’s cultural roots (resilience, perseverance, innovativeness and entrepreneurship, biases towards STEM education, amongst them) and its huge internal markets, can such a mission accomplishable? My answer is also a big No. With a rising China, the obvious option is to work with each other to make the world a better place for everybody, which China will strongly support.
China is a country that does not believe in Zero-sum game. Xi Jinping’s Belt & Road Initiative was designed to improve connectivity, trade and economic growth between Asia, Africa and Europe and the progress and results are obvious for all to see. Hitherto land-locked and left-out countries are now able to move the goods across borders. People become richer. Unfortunately, thanks to American pressure, many countries have opted out or not to join the BRI.
A policy that is based on supremacism and arrogance, which America has been practicing all this while, is surely untenable in the long run.
Biden and his team have caused America to be the “Who cares?” of the world. Even Benjamin Netanyahu is bold to say this to America in the face.
The Biden administration has brought China and Russia closer, and alienate the Global South, who now sees the US as the supporter of many bad causes in the world today.
Biden squandered his four years in the Oval Office!
Its philosophy-driven policy – centred on people’s needs, global good, etc – will certainly prevail. It does not need elaboration. I dare say China has long braced itself for the Trump eventuality. Its industries will certainly suffer initially, but its overall ascendency is unstoppable.
Thanks to the Renaissance, Europe had been the masters of the modern world – until America became No 1 after World War II. For some years Europe under the EU seemed determined to reassert itself and its Euro also became a reserve currency. But now it is a sad union. Its president is an American stooge. Her policies are against the interests of many Europeans. (A case in point is the recent tariff against Chinese EV vehicles, when China’s market is open to all world makes.) Their sanctioning of Russia and refusal to but Russia gas is making their production cost too prohibitive and the lives of their citizens tough. For a very sophisticated society, you cannot imagine they can be so beholden to America that is egging them on to fight their neighbour. NATO’s decision to expand eastwards will certainly go down in history as another example of shooting one’s own foot.
Trump has already said he will end the Ukraine War if he becomes the President. The Europeans would certainly be wondering why they had chosen to fight Russia in the first place. The war was brought about by a joker’s fantasy with NATO in the first place.
Much of Ukraine has been destroyed. Vladimir Putin’s red line – DO NOT BE PART OF NATO – is simple for Ukrainians to respect. It simply must kick out Zelenskyy, who is Jewish in the first place. (Some political observers even speculate that behind him is the big Zionist conspiracy to turn Ukraine into a Jewish homeland, since much of it is now owned by American Jewish interests.)
Europe is where the Renaissance began, and many great philosophers and thinkers hailed from. But the people like Stoltenberg, von der Leyen, and leaders of Finland, Sweden, Lithuania, etc are intellectually incongruent with this greatness.
Fortunately, they still have people like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić that have exhibited good sense.
The BRICS Summit 2024 (the 16th, in Kazan, Russia) earlier this month, attended by 36 world leaders, including the United Nations secretary general António Guterres, has clearly demonstrated that Putin is not a pariah as the West Plus wants us to believe. Every clear-headed person now knows that Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine was not premised on a Czarist’s expansionist mission. The West has simply created a monster which Putin has to destroy. (Unfortunately, many countries are still behaving like ostriches!)
Even though BRICS has expanded, one of its original pillars is its Archilles heel. That is India. Modi harbours global leadership ambition. He is NOT happy for India to be lumped into the Global South. Indeed, it has the population to support this ambition. Individually, many Indians are academically and professionally very brilliant. And they speak the international language English. But its cultural, social and religious are too fossilized for great nationhood. Its rich are getting richer; its poor remain downtrodden, value-lacking and behaviourally wanting.
BRICS Plus could easily pave the way for an alternative financial system to overcome the SWIFT, which has largely been weaponised by the US. Unfortunately, India is not quite in favour of the new system, which obviously has to be led by China. The only thread that is holding India in BRICS is perhaps Russia, a country that India depended on weaponry for many years and has benefited a great deal in the Ukraine War. The latter is a classic example of America’s not wanting to sanction India despite this belligerence, thanks to Modi’s ability to hypnotise Biden. But I do not think he can have his way with Trump.
The Other Parts of Global South
With a conman at the helm, the US is doomed.
This article touches only the very surface. Lack of really understanding of what is taking place inside China. People there are yelling for help. Corruption is rampant from the very top to a policeman.
ReplyDeleteYes.. of course a 2000 word essay is only touching the surface..
DeleteDo you have a blog or book you'd recommend to dive deeper?
Overall the comments are correct.
ReplyDeleteThe world need Peace not Wars.
The world also need Trades and Wars.
Trump knows that. Now, the world under Trump will concentrate on Peace and Trades and not Wars.
Trump understands the ethics of modern society Trades not Wars.
Once political hegemony is put aside the world will be more at peace than Wars.
1/n
ReplyDeleteCritically, Trump's Republicans won the swing states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Michigan, Arizona and Wisconsin on the back of their stalwarts Florida, Texas, and basically the rest of America's heartland.
They gained more support from the under-30s, Latino males, Afro-Americans and even Arabs. What they gained also neutralised the slight increase in support for Harris' women-movement; in fact, Trump was also favoured by many women voters in his 71 million base.
Undoubtedly, the coming days will see hand-wringing analyses by the Democrats inasmuch triumphalism by the Republicans but suffice to say, a number of observations have already emerged.
The Democrats lost because unbelievably they again made the same mistake as in 2016, namely they exhibited little traction with the angst of the rural working class conservatives who saw in Trump the first figure from the elite class who could talk to them at the grassroot level and represent their interests even if he remains a felon in the books of the courts which they regard as part of the deep state he has sworn to drain.
That's why they could jauntily overlook his banal chicaneries because they have made him their presidential weapon of mass deconstruction of the very system they have decried for not solving their problems of costs, security and identity-challenging liberalism.
At the same time, Trump's campaign was cannily two-pronged: spook the masses about border security and entice the corporates with prospects of tax reduction.
Meanwhile, Biden, Harris and their campaign hacks blundered; Biden for leaving too late to nominate other than her besides blurting the term 'garbage' in much the same way Hillary Clinton lost by using the term 'deplorables'; Harris for focusing on just denigrating Trump at the expense of saying nothing to improve the economy and working classes; in fact she had said should she be appointed, she will be doing more of what Biden was doing when Biden was one reason many were already decanting into the Trump camp despite all media figures waxing how well the economy was doing and inflation contained.
One is thus reminded of the old refrain - success engendering its own failure - so that dependence on past success with the economy overlooks the subterranean grassroot sentiment of dissatisfaction and yearning for a new reviving narrative beyond the bombast of feckless politicospeak.
2/n
ReplyDeleteNow that Trump has the presidency, senate and house, his Trump 2.0 will make the return of John Wick seem pale by comparison. Despite rivers of tomes written on the bad idea of protectionism, Tariff Man may well bring a bazooka to a pinball carnival. Exempted from the law for sitting behind the Resolute desk, he will be writing many executive orders that will bypass most checks-and-balances.
With Bannon, Navarro and Lighthizer ringing in his ear (the left one), he will target China massively and extensively at just the worst time possible when Beijing is doing her best to revive domestic sentiments and the economy. He may well want to resurrect the old deals left fallow after Covid-19 hit but the additional tariffs will certainly dampen the positive stimuli that Beijing has planned to unfurl to kickstart her engines of additional growth.
A China so weakened will buy less from SEAsia whose economies will lose wind just when China will be hampered by US protectionism and will sell less to the US which will in turn result in less US dollars to buy US treasuries to finance US debt so that the dollar as reserve currency has its own fault for its issuer.
Meanwhile, Trump's disruptions to the global supply chains across all products and services will inject anti-market strains from the reactions which all tariffed countries which trade with the US will muster.
It will however be a stretch to expect European countries will ignore the US' imposed threat of secondary sanctions should they want to supply critical technologies to China in exchange for China's investments into their beleagured economies now to be shrunk by Trump's pro-MAGA exclusivity.
The end-result will be a three-bloc trade architecture: North America, Europe and China+Global South with the periphery made of Russia, Japan, South Korea and India. To the extent the Global South economies and Russia do not get US attention, they will gravitate towards China for progress and multilateral trade which will in turn provide buffer and ballast for China's industries working in sync with their bases and resources suppliers.
3/n
ReplyDeleteNo one is sanguine the Democrats will be able to mount enough opposition in the 2026 mid-term that will change the power equation in the US congress so that means Trump will continue his bull-in-china-shop wreckage well into his term ending in 2028; only time will tell how dense Vance will perform then if at all.
Suffice to say, his US executive rubric going forward will depend who he appoints to key positions in his administration. To placate the hoi-polloi expectations he keeps his promises, most will be expected to be anti-China hawks. The danger is they will have their own interpretation of what they think he wants done and he be too celebratory at his golf-course to finecomb details at his age. The ultimate arty Dealer thus gets strung around by his own apprentices.
The geometry of the geopolitical balance of powers may however be counterbalanced by how well he with broad strokes navigates around the conflict minefields.
Part of Ukraine will go to Moscow in conjunct with more bodyguard bills for the accounts of Nato countries; the two-state solution for Palestine will be reburied with Israel expanding buffer zones of occupation, the Middle East will be muted by more oil from fracking in the US by which Trump will augment the fortunes of US oilmen and arms-makers. It is questionable whether the US manufacturing sector can find more workers when the country is already at almost full employment (despite lamentations how the rustbelt has hollowed out) and he has intimated he wants to expel over a million illegals.
If more automation is the solution, then what's the reason to erect tariffs to protect workers that are already employed but will immmediately suffer higher-priced monthly imported goods when they pay for those tariffs, something which his jaundiced brain refuses to compute?
Meanwhile over in Asia, he will extract more pounds of flesh from Japan, South Korea and Taipei while ignoring Marcos and Albanese but cultivating for realpolitik reasons only a Modi chastened by his own opposition parties.
In any case and except for China, most leaders especially the UK's Starmer after Ishiba and Yoon will try to suck up to him. Something to do with plying the oldest trade in town.
But on their puckered lips will be the question how the world's sole superpower after WW2 could still be trying to wax about its version of freedom and rules-based order when it's neither free nor dogmatic about rules.
In fact it convinces itself it can afford to fail so long as others don't succeed and when found out to be self-negligent, adduces blame onto others who are just making their own good progress on their own worthy merits. Thus, it may have power but no ethics.
For the rest of the world, an unethical power that is trigger-happy to flex dominance on some excuse of a domino theory over cowherds and farmers on their home soil belittles what little is left of any benevolent nature let alone theocratic compassion.
4/4
ReplyDeleteChina's twin problems of property overhang and demographics can be overcome by phasally triggered implosion of the former and AI-mediated automation of the latter.
In an earlier comment elsewhere, i had broached the idea of just giving each migrant worker a free apartment for his household taken from the millions of apartments that are not occupied.
It will give each an asset to build futures and revive domestic consumer sentiment needed to actuate the very nationalism that can overcome the new travails visited by the US, the pacing adversary. In short, buy China first.
Doing so will add millions more to the middle-income group, urbanize the rural regions and activate the tier-2 and 3 cities as hubs, all for the cost of some funds paid and internally circulated to the developers which can then relieve the banking backbone to focus on tech manufacturers within the circular economy. But never again build more than cashflow allows. After all, GDP growth is just one metric.
Doing so will also erase the memory of nauseous wastage of funds blown in the past to buy window-dressed assets in the G7s.
Those who can afford who have already bought their own apartments should exercise quietus in this apparent reach-out towards socialist common prosperity.
That out of the way, China is primus inter pares in AI applications. Her STEMs are top-notch in using AI to tease-out new technologies and resuscitate abandoned discoveries. But she must not lose her Tiktok algorithm and EV technologies. Integrated with other technologies like photonic chips and quantum communications, these are strategic to the future of 21st global progress.
But all progress is foremost predicated on social stability. Seeing how the US disrupted the Soviet Union and instigated against her in Tibet, Tiananmen, HK, Xinjiang, Taiwan, Australia, India and perhaps Balochistan, it is understandable why Xi has had to ideologically project a strongman visage, furthermore fight cliquish corruption that is the collateral-effect of rich-is-glorious opening-up that leeches on state funds and peoples' prosperity.
The cost of not doing so would have mired China's productive forces and destabilized the social platform by which her peoples stand to progress their lives and future.
To his credit, he has not relented where lesser leaders would have caved in to the craven accusations of authoritarianism, especially voiced by G7 hypocrites and their paid hacks.
The present stormy cycle of world affairs will pan out. Le Chatelier's Principle, one recalls. At least that's what Daniels would have said if Trump agrees.
Btw, his right ear-lobe looks unsinged by any high-velocity bullet fired at close range. But then again, it's a Republican forte to engineer a regime change.