Trump and Netanyahu's Quagmire – Heaven-sent Opportunities for a New World Order?

Remember George Floyd?

Is the simultaneous crisis engulfing the United States and Israel a mere historical accident, or does it signal a fundamental shift in the global order? The war in Iran – escalating far beyond Donald Trump's boastful promise of a "one-day" operation – represents more than just another Middle Eastern conflict. It is the logical culmination of deeper forces: America's unresolved historical fractures and Israel's trauma-induced security paradox. This essay argues that this very quagmire, while devastating for those caught within it, is accelerating the transition to a multipolar world. For China, Russia, and the Global South, what appears as catastrophe for the old order may indeed represent what some would call a "heaven-sent" opportunity.

Part I: The Unstable Foundation – America's Fractured Identity

The United States is often described as a "nation of immigrants," but this cheerful phrase obscures a more complicated reality. At just 250 years old, America lacks the deep civilizational memory that anchors older societies. It has no tribal beginnings, no shared mythology of origin beyond revolutionary break from Britain, and few collective memories that bind all its peoples – Pearl Harbor being a rare exception.

The cultural foundations of the modern US were initially European, predominantly English in language, institutions, and political thought. Waves of German, Irish, Italian, and Polish immigrants added layers to this Anglo-Protestant core. But two other histories complicate this narrative profoundly.

First, the tragedy of Black slavery. From 1619, when enslaved Africans first arrived in Virginia, through centuries of bondage, Civil War, Jim Crow segregation, and the long struggle for civil rights, Black Americans have existed in a paradoxical relationship with the nation they helped build. Today, at 13-14% of the population, they have achieved remarkable gains – culminating in the Obama presidency – yet movements like Black Lives Matter remind us how much remains unresolved.

Second, the Hispanic presence predates English settlement itself. Spanish colonies flourished in the Southwest and Florida long before the Mayflower. After the Mexican-American War (1846-1848), the US absorbed vast territories with established Mexican communities. Later migrations from Cuba, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic added further diversity to this Hispanic foundation.

Then came the Jews. Between 1880 and 1924, large numbers fled persecution in Eastern Europe, settling in cities like New York and Chicago. Their emphasis on literacy and education – rooted in religious traditions of study and interpretation – propelled them into universities and professions. Ironically, discrimination that barred them from elite institutions pushed Jewish entrepreneurs into new industries like Hollywood and finance, which later became enormously influential. Though only 2-3% of the population today, American Jews command disproportionate economic and political power, alongside stunning contributions to science and intellectual life.

Asian Americans, particularly Chinese, faced recurring waves of exclusion. The Chinese Exclusion Act of 1882 was the first major law restricting immigration based on race. Japanese internment during World War II revealed how quickly suspicion could become policy. During the COVID-19 pandemic, anti-Asian hate incidents surged again – and now, Asians find themselves once more targeted by Trump's rhetoric.

Together, these influences form a hybrid culture, yet the Anglo-Protestant tradition remains the institutional framework. What this mélange lacks, however, is the cohesive identity that older civilizations possess. The US is a melting pot without collective memory, held together more by ideology than by shared history. Into this vacuum stepped Donald Trump—a white supremacist at heart, a crook in practice, and a leader who exploits every fracture for his own gain.

Part II: The Captive Leader – Trump's Moral Bankruptcy

Donald Trump will likely go down as the most morally bankrupt leader in American history. The Jeffrey Epstein files, whatever their full contents, have already painted a picture of decadence at the highest levels. Trump lies habitually, surrounds himself with sycophants, and shows no regard for constitutional constraints. He markets his own digital coin from the presidency, bullies allies and adversaries alike, and flip-flops on decisions so frequently that the word "policy" seems beyond his comprehension.

His standing internationally, outside a dwindling circle of hardcore supporters like Japan's Sanae Takaichi and NATO's Mark Rutte, is rock bottom. Even his own appointees struggle to defend him – witness the pathetic performance of his intelligence chiefs before Senate hearings, or the resignation of Joe Kent, a long-time Trump supporter and decorated veteran, who urged the president to "reverse course" on Iran.

Trump exhibits what popular imagination attributes to Machiavelli - ruthlessness, norm-breaking, a focus on winning at any cost. But Machiavelli actually counselled disciplined pragmatism, not chaos. He warned rulers against acting impulsively, being hated by the population, or using cruelty excessively. Trump's unpredictability is not strategic brilliance; it is the thrashing of a man without principles, whose only consistent commitment is to himself.

Part III: The Traumatized Partner – Israel's Ghosts

To understand Israel's current trajectory, one must grapple with the Holocaust. Six million Jews systematically exterminated. Entire communities erased. Families who lost every relative in a single generation. The trauma of such annihilation does not fade; it shapes identity across decades.

Modern Germany made extraordinary efforts at reconciliation – Willy Brandt kneeling at the Warsaw Ghetto memorial in 1970 symbolized genuine remorse. Yet for many Jews, Holocaust remembrance is not about holding grudges against modern Germany. It is about heeding a warning: civilization can collapse into persecution with terrifying speed. "Never Again" became not just a slogan but a moral principle.

This trauma directly shaped Israel's founding in 1948 and its security doctrine ever since. Pre-emptive military action, when a threat emerges, became embedded in national strategy. Menachem Begin explicitly invoked the Holocaust when justifying the 1981 strike on Iraq's nuclear reactor. Today, Israel maintains one of the world's most advanced militaries, constantly vigilant.

Yet vigilance can become paranoia. The Jewish experience as a "middleman minority" across centuries—forced into finance and trade when other professions were closed, then resented for those very roles—created a historical pattern of vulnerability. In medieval Europe, Jews were forbidden from owning land, excluded from guilds, yet blamed when economic crises hit. During the Black Death, they were falsely accused of poisoning wells and massacred. The "deicide charge" fuelled religious antisemitism for centuries, later transmuting into racial ideology under the Nazis.

This history explains much, but it does not excuse everything. Israeli leaders have faced genuine threats – existential challenges from neighbours who denied their right to exist. Yet they have also made choices that perpetuated conflict rather than resolving it.

Part IV: Two Paths Not Taken

Israeli leaders differed significantly in their approaches to coexistence. David Ben-Gurion focused on survival rather than expansion. Yitzhak Rabin signed the Oslo Accords, working with Yasser Arafat to establish Palestinian self-government – and was assassinated for it by an Israeli extremist in 1995. Shimon Peres advocated regional cooperation. Ehud Barak attempted comprehensive peace at Camp David in 2000; the talks failed, but they represented genuine effort.

The confrontational path was taken by others. Menachem Begin, despite making peace with Egypt's Sadat, also invaded Lebanon in 1982. Ariel Sharon expanded settlements aggressively. And then there is Benjamin Netanyahu.

Netanyahu, like Trump, carries significant personal baggage – indictments for bribery, fraud, and breach of trust that have shadowed his political career. He is Israel's longest-serving prime minister, and his tenure has been marked by systematic efforts to weaken judicial independence and by relentless focus on Iran as existential threat. He opposed the 2015 nuclear deal vehemently and has consistently undermined Palestinian statehood.

The question must be asked: Is Netanyahu's approach – and by extension, Israel's current trajectory – actually jeopardizing the country's long-term survival? Military dominance and occupation policies generate inevitable resentment. Unresolved conflict with Palestinians poisons relations across the Arab world. Yet peace agreements with Egypt (1978) and Jordan (1994) demonstrate that diplomacy can work. Even recent normalization with UAE and Bahrain under the Abraham Accords suggests that geopolitical interests can override ideology – though these deals bypass Palestinians rather than resolving the core issue.

In the Western mind, the logic is clear: if Israel appears weak, it invites attack; if it relies only on force, it deepens hostility. But perhaps an Eastern perspective offers wisdom: a durable strategy requires both strength and reconciliation. Strength deters enemies; reconciliation transforms them into something else.

Part V: The Iran War – Quagmire Deepens

I do not normally indulge conspiracy theories. But the Epstein factor in this war deserves examination – not as proven fact, but as plausible explanation for otherwise inexplicable behaviour. Jeffrey Epstein's web of powerful connections, particularly to Trump, raises unsettling questions. Whether or not Epstein was an Israeli intelligence operative running "honey traps," the appearance of such control further erodes faith in American leadership. Many observers find in this shadowy influence a plausible reason for Trump's seemingly unwavering support for Netanyahu's hawkish agenda.

Whatever the cause, the result is clear: the US is now bogged down in a war that defies easy resolution. Trump boasted it would end in one day. Now he says it will end "when I feel it in my bones." The conflict drags on because Iran is not Iraq, Afghanistan, or Venezuela.

Iran is vast – nearly four times the size of Iraq – mountainous, and fiercely nationalistic. Foreign attacks historically strengthen internal unity there. Its military strategy relies on asymmetric warfare: missiles and drones, decentralized command, regional proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis. It can absorb damage without collapsing. Meanwhile, the Strait of Hormuz – through which 20% of global oil passes – becomes a pressure point. Effectively, Iran is blockading it.

The US faces an impossible dilemma. Full invasion would mean massive casualties and prolonged occupation, which the American public will not support. Limited strikes cannot end the conflict decisively. So it pursues a middle path – airstrikes – which tends to drag on indefinitely, bleeding resources and resolve.

If Iran can outlast the US politically, raise the cost of intervention, and deploy its arsenal judiciously – much of it now enhanced by sophisticated Chinese electronic warfare technology – it will survive. Both the US and Israel are likely to emerge from this war wounded to the core. Europe and Japan will suffer economic consequences. Only China and Russia stand to benefit.

Part VI: The Beneficiaries – A New Order Takes Shape

Thomas Friedman, for whom I have little regard, has been quoted approvingly by Chinese commentators for saying Trump is "the American president China deserved." The point is well taken: Trump's approach has undermined US alliances, withdrawn from international agreements, and alienated traditional partners – all of which makes China's global positioning easier.

Militarily, China has already achieved parity with the US in many areas, particularly missile technology and electronic warfare. To ensure a peaceful world, it must maintain this pace, effectively rendering the US the runner-up. Recent reports suggest China has cracked EUV lithography technology – a critical breakthrough in semiconductor manufacturing achieved despite Western blockade. Its lunar program progresses steadily toward manned landings. In space, as in so many domains, China is demonstrating that it can not only match but surpass American achievements.

Diplomatically, China's stance on Ukraine, its stances on tariff wars, its measured response to the Iran crisis – all contrast favourably with American bellicosity. The world increasingly sees that China does not seek to export its political system; it recognizes that its model is uniquely suited to its own civilization. This restraint builds trust.

Russia, meanwhile, benefits from higher oil prices and European dependence on its energy. Ukraine will likely have to surrender eventually, and Europe will eventually eat humble pie and return to Russian gas. The continent has lost its bearings, its anchoring purpose fading. EU and NATO resemble headless chickens, led by figures of diminishing stature.

Part VII: The Shape of Things to Come

What emerges from this chaos will not be a new American Century, nor necessarily a Chinese one. A multipolar world is taking shape – messy, contested, but potentially more balanced than what came before.

The United States will likely become more like Europe: no longer globally threatening, still relevant in scientific research and higher education, but diminished in hard power. Europe itself may become a haven for tourism and culture, its geopolitical ambitions scaled back.

Middle powers – Canada, Australia, India, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Brazil, Japan, Indonesia – will gain autonomy. They will no longer need to look to Washington for nods or frowns. India's Narendra Modi, however, must recognize that hugging everyone simultaneously becomes untenable eventually. Stances must clarify as the new order solidifies.

The Global South will continue to count on China for prosperity, infrastructure, and development financing. Institutional bodies like the UN and WTO, with China and the Global South's support, may finally return to their intended roles.

Accelerating factors could hasten this transition: Taiwan's return to China's fold, a major world economic crisis, or further American overreach. But the trend is already clear.

Conclusion: From Quagmire to Opportunity

The Iran war is not an end but a painful beginning. Trump and Netanyahu, in their moral bankruptcy and strategic blindness, have stumbled into a quagmire that exposes the limits of American and Israeli power. Yet in that exposure lies possibility.

For decades, the US-led order presented itself as inevitable – the "end of history" beyond which no alternative could exist. That illusion has now shattered. A new world order is emerging, not through some grand design but through the accumulation of American missteps and Chinese patience. It will be multipolar, contested, and unpredictable. Whether it becomes benign – focused on cooperation, development, and peace – depends on the wisdom of leaders in Beijing, New Delhi, Brussels, and a chastened Washington.

The quagmire in Iran may yet prove, for the rest of the world, a heaven-sent opportunity to build something better. Goodness, as I believe, does tend to prevail—but only when given the chance.

End

Postscript: I coined the title to mean it negatively on Trump and Netanyahu, but the choice of the term “Heaven-sent” might irk many friends and readers. Be that as it may, do hear me out, but feel free to disagree!