Several indicators have emerged over the last couple
of months as to how 2025 and beyond will roll out for the world.
Thanks to Joe Biden, the world is certainly splitting
solid into two domains – (a) the old system led by the US and its AUKUS die-hards
(the UK, Canada, and Australia), allies like Japan, South Korea and Europe’s NATO
and pro-NATO countries, and fan club members like the Philippines, Argentina
and Jordan, and (b) the emerging core of China and Russia new order. The latter
has amongst them comrade states like North Korea, Venezuela, Belarus, and Cuba.
For that description, China can also have Pakistan, Cambodia, and Serbia to
count on, though vulnerability remains in some. The new order includes the other
pariahs in America’s eyes – countries like Iran and Syria – and is also
attracting countries in South, Central and West Asia, Africa, South America and
the Pacific Islands.
In between there is a basket of other nations, some of
which are quite tired of the US, like its hitherto ally Saudi Arabia, Global
South states that are led by more rational leaders like Brazil, South Africa,
and a host of others trying to balance themselves between the US and China,
like most countries in ASEAN. India stands on its own – led by Narendra Modi
who unlike any other, only does things to suit its own interest, regardless of
geopolitical consequences.
I really doubt it is Biden who is in-charge in
America. Judging from the way he wanders around even in tightly orchestrated
situations, I dare say he is mentally incapable of knowing himself, let alone
making serious decisions. The “Deep State” (i.e., the Zionist-driven Military-Industrial
and Media Complex of America) is calling the shots; and Biden is just the convenient
puppet.
Biden has helped to cement this China-Russia hating
culture in America. No matter who gets elected in the coming November
presidential election, this culture will continue.
Three key areas are solidifying this geopolitical divide:
(a) the war in Ukraine, (b) the war in Gaza, and (c) the tension in the Taiwan
Strait.
Those who have a clear head know what has prompted
Russia to invade Ukraine. But thanks to the propaganda machines from the West
and many willing ethnically Chinese accomplices, Russia is seen to be the evil
wolf. The cold truth is, despite all the sanctions, Russians are whacking the
Ukrainians hard. If not for the support of the US and NATO and their allies,
Zelensky would have been a piece of dead meat by now. And despite the huge
financial and military help from the West and their allies, he can hardly carry
on.
On the other hand, Hamas are very good in shooting
their own feet. Their abduction of Israelis has given Benjamin Netanyahu the
determination to wipe them out of Gaza. Some 40,000 Palestinians, majority of
whom are women and children, have been already killed in the conflict. The rest
are like ants on a hot plate, moving from place to place, without any hope of settlement.
The obvious acts of genocide on the part of Netanyahu’s forces have also turned
much of the world against Israel and its patron, the US.
The consequences of the two wars are dire for both the
Ukrainians and the Palestinians in Gaza.
I will talk about the tensions in the Taiwan Strait
and South China Sea later.
First, let me focus on the latest news: The G7 meeting
that has just been held in Italy’s city of Fasano.
G7: From Benevolence to Robbery…
A bit of
background on G7… When the world was reeling from the first oil shock and
subsequent financial crisis, the heads of state and government of the six
leading industrial countries – the US, West Germany, France, the UK,
Italy, and Japan – met in 1975 for the first time to discuss the global
economy. They were joined in 1976 by Canada. In the 1980s the G7
extended its interests to embrace foreign and security policy issues; there
were conflicts like Iran and Iraq and the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan
those days. Russia was invited to the table in 1998, but following its annexation of Crimea, the fraternity decided to
exclude Russia in their 2014 meeting.
G7 is
supposed to be an informal bloc, but thanks to Biden, it is now acting like an
alliance to stop China and Russia. Their landmark decision in this 2024 summit:
To confiscate Russian assets and use them to support Ukraine.
It is crucial to note that
the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammad Bin Salman had declined the
invitation to attend this year’s summit. Leaders of Algeria, Argentina, Brazil,
Indian, Jordan, Mauritania (representing the African Union), Tunisia, Türkiye, Ukraine,
the UAE and the Vatican are also attending.
G7 on Thursday agreed on a plan to give
Ukraine $50 billion loan to help it buy weapons and begin to rebuild damaged
infrastructure. The upfront money will come from the US, the EU and some G7
countries, though the details on how much each entity contributes is being
worked out.
The idea is to use the nearly $300
billion in Russian assets in the West, frozen after Moscow’s invasion of
Ukraine in February 2022, as the basis for the loan. The money will be repaid
over time with the profits earned from those Russian assets, about two-thirds
of which are in Europe. Many of the
assets are in bonds that have matured, creating interest of, depending on the
interest rate, $3 billion to $4 billion a year. (It is also worth noting that
the US House of Representatives had in fact already
passed a bill for that purpose in April.)
It the seizure is acted
upon; it would definitely undermine international financial rule of law. Who
would feel safe to put their money in the West’s financial institutions?
And Now Back to Saudi Arabia…
Saudi Arabia is not renewing its 50-year
petrodollar deal with the US
To me,
the most important event so far this year is Saudi Arabia’s decision not to
renew its 50-year petrodollar deal with the US – a decision made when G7 was
meeting in Italy. For obvious reasons, little has been publicized about this
decision by the West. Russia has been de-dollarizing its trade, however, its impact
and success so far have been at best modest. But the Saudi decision is going to
be seismic. It is expected to accelerate the global trend
of using currencies other than the US dollar in international trade, or
de-dollarisation. It will change the
world’s financial order in due course.
Originally signed on June 4, 1974, the
petrodollar deal effectively help sealed US Dollar’s hegemony
in global finance.
Not only that, but it is also
joining Project mBridge…
Saudi Arabia’s central bank
has decided to join the central banks of China, Thailand, Hong Kong, and the
UAE in Project mBridge. The project is a cross-border experiment with central
bank digital currencies (CBDCs) for international trade. The project was
launched in 2021 to assess the viability of CBDCs for instantaneous
cross-border trade and other payments using the project’s blockchain, the
mBridge Ledger, which is a possible CBDC alternative to SWIFT. Bank of
International Settlements (BIS) has also announced that Project mBridge, after
three years, has reached the Minimum Viable Product (MVP) stage and is
requesting private sector firms to propose new solutions and use cases that
help develop the platform and display all its potential. In addition, the
mBridge’s six full participants, 27 other official entities, including IMF, the
World Bank and the central banks of Norway, South Korea and Türkiye
have signed as observers to the project. Major global financial
institutions like Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and China’s six biggest state-owned
banks, are also working on the project. (Not all of these will sustain their
interest – likely due to G7 pressure – though.)
These moves by Saudi Arabia marks the beginning of a major shift
in global economic and financial dynamics.
And the New Tariff Walls:
On May 14, the US introduced new tariffs on several
Chinese products on the pretext of China’s “overcapacity” and “unfair trade
practices” talks. Most significantly, the duty of electric vehicles (EVs) has
been raised from 25% to 100%, and batteries, battery components and parts, and
critical minerals, from 7.5% to 25%, either immediately or in stages. Others
affected are steel and aluminum, semiconductors, solar cells, ship-to-shore
cranes and medical products.
(The Rasputin of the US
politics Donald Trump had earlier warned his countrymen that if he were to lose
the 2024 election, it would be a “bloodbath” for the US auto industry and the
country. This news came after Joe Biden’s 100% tariff announcement on Chinese
electric vehicles. Both are trying to outdo one another to kill China. But I do
not know what Trump really means by his latest war cry. Is he saying Biden is
not doing enough?)
Just as the G7 summit was about to take place, the European
Commission announced that additional duties of up to 38.1% would be levied
on imported Chinese electric vehicles from next month. (BYD 17.4%, Geely 20%,
those who cooperated 21%, the rest 38.1%, and probably to placate the US, EU
said Tesla may receive an individually calculated duty rate on its
China-made EVs when definitive duties are imposed in November.)
Overcapacity is a term that was coined by Janet Yellen
to describe China’s super competitiveness. She is insulting man-in-the-street’s
intelligence, yet the political leaders in Europe are parroting and crowing it
like a new economic buzzword. Anyone who has a rudimentary knowledge of
economics knows subsidies, tariffs, etc will not help make one’s products more
competitive. It will only create complacency and finally kill them. But Biden
is more concerned about vote-hunting, and Ursula von der Leyen wants the US to
lobby support for her re-election as EU’s President and she is happy to shoot the
feet of fellow German automakers to please Biden.
The 2024 European Parliament Election
Results
The voting took place from June 6 to 9. Far-right parties in France, Italy and Germany gained grounds and
the liberal and the Green groups lost seats and relevance.
Domestic
politics was upended in some countries, prompting French President Emmanuel
Macron to dissolve its National Assembly and call for a snap election after his
party was trounced by Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally. Belgium’s Prime
Minister Alexander De Croo similarly resigned. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor
Orbán was also dealt a blow. His party Fidesz suffered its worst European
election results to date, ceding ground to its centre-right opponents. His
setback is bad news for China.
Von der Leyen’s party
held its ground. If she succeeds in her re-election pursuit, she will certainly
continue with her “pro-Ukraine, anti-China” policies.
The
Greens were squeezed across Europe.
Now, the Hoodlums in North and South China Seas…
All of
us know the two hot spots in East Asia: Taiwan and North Korea.
The totally pro-American South Korean
President Yoon Suk Yeol is opposed to accommodation with his kinsmen in the
north. He and the war in Ukraine are pushing Kim Jong Un to become abang-adik
of Vladimir Putin. From time-to-time Kim would fire a rocket or a missile to
remind South Korea and the US of his gravitas, and this has created
opportunities for countries like Australia and the Netherlands to send their
ships or planes to fly around the area. And the area is right at the doorstep
of China! Can China tolerate? Of course not!
China was so disdained of the
Netherlands’ warship near its doorstep that it sent one of its oldest planes to
intimidate it. (Some Taiwanese scholars said the plane should have discharged some
human waste on the warship when flying over; others thought it should have
dropped some leaflets with the image of Zheng Chenggong 郑成功
onto the ship to remind the Dutch of
their defeat at the hand of the former.)
Yes, China is not forging a formal
alliance with Russia. But their relationship has thickened over the past couple
of years. They are opening a huge common development and market zone in the
Russia’s Far East and China’s northeast provinces. Remember Putin’s swing to
Harbin to lay a wreath there during his May state visit to China? Japan You
watch out; I have not done with you yet!
And Russian warships, including a
nuclear-powered submarine, are sailing into Cuba’s main harbour! Moscow thinks
it is time for them to flex their naval muscles in US’s own backyard. Let’s see
how the US would react this time.
Across the Taiwan Strait
William Lai Ching-Te made his “presidential”
inauguration speech on May 20. It is clear that he is determined to pursue a “Taiwan
as a separate country” policy, regardless of what China has warned. China is in
a dilemma. It is not difficult for China to overwhelm Taiwan militarily if it
wants to. But the cost may be too high for it to bear – in terms of winning the
hearts and minds of Taiwanese, since no matter how careful the operation is,
deaths and destruction will invariably result.
On the other hand, if China does not act, the people
in Taiwan, especially the young, will drift further and further in accepting
China as the core motherland. Immediately after Lai’s inauguration, China
staged an air-and-sea military exercise around Taiwan. Most Taiwanese have just
shrugged it off as another show-show sign from China. But they may not realize
the underlying dangers. China is adopting the “boiling-toad” strategy. One fine
day, Taiwanese may wake up to find PLA soldiers right in front of their
doorsteps.
Earlier in the month, top US admiral Samuel
Paparo said the US military had a plan to turn the Taiwan Strait into an
“unmanned hellscape” if China invaded. It is touted as their “Hellscape
Strategy,” which will employ thousands of drones to make China’s military
“miserable”. This will also buy the US time to respond. He is obviously angling
for more money from the Congress!
Around the waters of the Huáng Yán Dǎo (黄岩岛. Scarborough Shoal)
Marcos Jr will certainly continue to poke China in the
eyes. Sure, many of the islands that China is exerting sovereignty are
geographically absurd to be theirs. But this is a cruel fact of history. Falklands,
Diego Garcia, and many island in the mid-Pacific should not have been the
British’s, the American’s, or the French’s. But they are. Before World War II,
Filipinos were ruled by the Spaniards and later, the Americans. They had no
territorial concepts beyond their main islands. The areas had historically been
identified as China’s, you need to talk to the Chinese, not poke into their
eyes!
But Marcos’s agenda is more personal than what is
meant to be good for the Filipinos. His father’s ill-gotten billions are still
sitting in America, so is his desire to rule the Philippines longer than what
is now allowed. The Philippines will suffer greatly from tourism losses and its
agriculture produce. And in the event of a hot war, the American bases are the
natural targets of China’s missiles.
His father started his presidency with a noble
mission. He soon turned the Philippines into a “Strong man” state and helped
himself indiscriminately with the state’s coffer. And he became a fugitive. But
his misdeeds were soon forgotten, thanks to Filipinos’ easy to arouse and easy
to subdue nature. Is he going down his father’s path? Or does he care?
BRICS’s Archilles Heels
Started
with Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa (hence BRICS), the bloc has
expanded to include Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE as full
members in January. Argentina decided not to accept membership after “rock-star”
Javier Milei was elected president.
It
started well, then it went through a period of uncertainty, when Jair Messias
Bolsonaro became Brazil’s President in 2019. He was totally pro-Trump and was acting
like a spanner in the fraternity. Brazil became a key player again after Luiz
Lula da Silva returned as president in 2023.
It
has often been touted as the future of the world, a slayer of the US hegemon, and
a champion of de-dollarisation, Global South good causes championship, etc. But
I always think there is an Achilles heel embedded in the fraternity in the name
of Modi, India’s prime minister. Modi is a Hindu “saint”; he has only
one agenda: take advantage of any situation that India can benefit from,
regardless of its longer-term impacts or consequences. His vision and foresight
are parochial in essence. He sees China with a pair of green lenses. And the
West loves that and will do everything to encourage his G7 pretensions. The
Economist magazine is a super-optimist about its future.
Some
think that with the erosion of his support base in India’s latest general
elections, Modi may mellow down somewhat. I think he will continue to adopt the
anti-China policy since it is not a cause of the drop in his popularity. By and
large, Indians do not take kindly to China’s advances.
It
is likely that China, Russia, Brazil and Saudi Arabia will stay true to the
spirits of the bloc. Countries like Iran is too ideologically entrenched. Egypt
is largely a lame duck, and Ethiopia, UAE, and South Africa are too
light-weight politically and economically.
And Now, Back to China’s Situation
I
had always been a critic of China and many aspects of Chineseness, until Xi
Jinping was installed as the leader of China in 2013. I even took offence when
I was said to be a huá qiáo (华侨), which would imply that
I was a sojourner but still called China home. Through the reading of Professor
Wang Gungwu’s arguments, I came to use the term huáyì (华裔) to describe my
heritage. Xi changed my perspectives about China and myself. I am, after all, a
Zhōng-Guó ren (中国人) and should be proud of
this fact. He is taking China to earn its rightful place in the world. The West
knows China’s exceptionalism and is determined to retard it, even though China
has said time and again it does not seek to replace any country as the hegemon
of the world. I read widely and am seeing how the West is using its formidable
media to spread lies and disinformation about China. The undiscerning lot are buying
them hook, line and sinker. It is now my mission to help China tell its
stories.
Chang'e 6 (嫦娥六号), Most Proud
of You!
Doesn’t this say loud and
clear that China is no inferior to any nation in the world technologically?
The mission began on May 3
when the probe was launched from Hainan Island. The materials collected from
the far side of the moon is just the trophy. It is the flawless steps that have
to be undertaken underscore the sophistication of the technology involved.
The moon is
tidally locked to the Earth, meaning it has equivalent orbital and rotational
periods, causing the same side of the celestial body to constantly face our
planet. Because of this, line-of-sight communication with spacecraft on the far
side of the moon is impossible without utilizing additional relays.
Now that Chang'e
6 has entered lunar orbit, it will coordinate with China's recently launched Queqiao
2 relay satellite to perform orbital correction manoeuvres ahead of
releasing the combined lander and ascent stage from the orbiting probe for
their landing attempt. Chang'e 6 is aiming for Apollo crater, inside the moon's
South Pole-Aitken (SPA) basin, where researchers believe samples may contain
clues about the moon's early history and evolution.
The samples
were packaged in a canister-like container on top of the ascender, which then
took off and rendezvoused and docked with the probe's orbiter-returner
combination.
The samples
were transferred from the ascender to the returner during this step. After
orbiting the moon for around 14 days, the orbiter-returner combination will
enter the moon-Earth transfer orbit. The combination will then operate in the
orbit for about five days and will make one to three orbital adjustments during
this period.
At a position around 5,000 km above Earth, the
returner will separate from the orbiter and start the phase of re-entering the
atmosphere and returning to Earth. The returner will touch down at a planned
landing area at Siziwang Banner in north China's Inner Mongolia Autonomous
Region.
Chang'e 6 will
collect a targeted 2 kilograms of lunar samples from the surface, as well as material
drilled from up to 2 meters (6.5 feet) underground. Those samples will be
stowed in the Chang'e 6 lander's ascent module, which will then launch and
rendezvous with its probe counterpart in lunar orbit.
The samples
will then be relocated to a re-entry module on the Chang'e 6 orbiter, designed
to protect the lunar material during re-entry through the Earth’s atmosphere, followed
by a transfer burn of the probe's engine to set the spacecraft on an
Earth-return trajectory.
Even the “photographer”
behind the historic image of lander and the Chinese national flag on the
surface of the moon’s far side is a marvel. It was done by a 5kg mini rover
using software that allow it to move autonomously across the lunar surface to
find the “best” angle for the picture!
And Huawei’s Pura 70
I am a great fan of Ren Zhengfei. I already possess a Huawei
matepad and a GT4 watch, even though many of their functions are beyond me. My
wife even wears her Huawei when she exercises and when she goes to bed! I had placed
a booking for its Pura 70, but to my great disappointment, it is not able to
download certain apps which I have to use in my work. It is not because it is
incapable of; rather, it has been denied the access.
The harder the US sanctions Huawei, the more breakthroughs it
will deliver. And the Americans are still scratching their heads where Huawei
gets their chips!
起来! 起来! (Qǐ lai, Qǐ lai, Stand up! Stand up!)
One thing is certain though, no matter who gets
elected, the US will continue to bash China. China will therefore step into a
2025 that is full of land mines and choked with poisonous gases.
There are three foreign science payloads in Chang’e 6
– a radon measuring instrument from France’s national space agency, a passive
laser retroreflector from Italy’s National Institute for Nuclear Physics and a
negative ion detection instrument from the Swedish Institute of Space Physics.
It is said that the European Space Agency may put a stop to all future
cooperation with China’s space agency. Why? Uncle Sam’s pressure, of course.
The Financial Times just reported that the British army is
delaying King Charles cap badges. Why? A UK Defence official cites the
possibility that tracking devices or GPS transmitters could be embedded into
the metal crests of these badges. Paranoid? No, says a friend. It is simply a
part of their demonizing campaign against China. Period.
At the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, the US
military even launched a secret campaign to counter what it perceived as
China’s growing influence in the Philippines. (Rodrigo Duterte was President
then.) Through phony Internet accounts, it bad-mouthed Chinese face masks, test
kits and Sinovac vaccines. You can see how low they are prepared to stoop! Now
it is a piece of public knowledge. Do Filipinos realize that their protector is
capable of compromising their lives if it suits them? Maybe I should paraphrase the recent remark of an American influencer (Scott Ritter?): We Americans don't love you! We just love your ingratiation and subserviency.
How should China prepare itself to go into 2025?
My answer lies in the lyrics above, which is part of
the Chinese national anthem!
And don’t waste time talking with the leaders from the
West and pro-West countries. Just go ahead to do what is good for China and your
friends in the Global South.
